NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 3:43 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: from what ive seen posted it runs the full set 120hr on 06/18z but i could be wrong, if anyone could find information otherwise to confirm is actual run time that would be great, cause i cant find any official confirmations that it runs to 84 either Expand I am fairly certain that the off runs (06z and 18z) only go out to 84hrs to match the NAM. Even if it did go out to 120hrs, you still posted hr 126 which would obviously be beyond its current capabilities. That link you posted automatically switches over to the latest run of the GGEM once beyond the threshold of the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 in looking into this i didnt find anything on the RGEM, but i did find a site that claims the GGEM, only truly runs to 240hrs at 00z, and 144hrs at 12z, at 12z it uses recycled 00z data to finish its run...anyone confirm that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 3:46 PM, NJwx85 said: I am fairly certain that the off runs (06z and 18z) only go out to 84hrs to match the NAM. Even if it did go out to 120hrs, you still posted hr 126 which would obviously be beyond its current capabilities. That link you posted automatically switches over to the latest run of the GGEM once beyond the threshold of the RGEM. Expand its a 6 hour lag push, on all frames...hour 120...is labeled 126... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 3:50 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: its a 6 hour lag push, on all frames...hour 120...is labeled 126... Expand Okay well like I said, the most I have seen it go out to is 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 3:51 PM, NJwx85 said: Okay well like I said, the most I have seen it go out to is 84hrs. Expand I have no idea then... tidbits only goes to hr 54 on 06/18z, and 48hr at 00/12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GFS warm into parts of the LHV, paste job interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Looks like like the EPS control IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The southern Vort gets out ahead of the northern piece, steers it around the trough base, allows for a stronger storm, however you get a warmer push with lack of arctic injection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Gfs, although similar in SLP track to the EPS is much colder taking a second look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Billy or anyone else whats the difference in these GFS runs ,,,,I went on tropical tidbits and under GFS there are 3 runs 90p, 95p, 96p,,,also Cebile and Fehi ? Same model with different variables in them or can u explain it to US ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:16 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: Billy or anyone else whats the difference in these GFS runs ,,,,I went on tropical tidbits and under GFS there are 3 runs 90p, 95p, 96p,,,also Cebile and Fehi ? Same model with different variables in them or can u explain it to US ? Expand I have no idea what ur talking about lol...picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Gfs paints again wed am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:10 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks like like the EPS control IMO Expand Looks like a paste job for us inland folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:14 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs, although similar in SLP track to the EPS is much colder taking a second look Expand Nice storm for the interior imop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:26 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs paints again wed am Expand Looks like an active week coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 CMC looks real nice for NYC metro . Similar LP track to GFS, but colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The 12z GFS is actually a mostly snow event for places like West Milford, Vernon, Port Jervis and Warwick and probably a snow to rain to snow event for places like NW Bergen, Northern Morris, Western Passaic and Rockland once NW of say the 287/Palisades Parkway interchange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:28 PM, mikem81 said: CMC looks real nice for NYC metro . Similar LP track to GFS, but colder. Expand It pulls the lp towards convection, double barrel looks has the southern slp primary, hence the cooler solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:28 PM, mikem81 said: CMC looks real nice for NYC metro . Similar LP track to GFS, but colder. Expand I find it hard to believe that you're going to be all snow in NYC when the 850mb low is over Cape May and winds are directly off the ocean, but I guess it's possible. My guess is that the coast would see quite a bit of sleet if this track verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 3:23 PM, NJwx85 said: The RGEM doesn't go out that far, you're looking at last night's 00z GGEM. Expand That' moderate snow my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The convection out ahead of trough is doing what it always does...we rarely see double barrel storm verify, yet they’re modeled mid range often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:27 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: Looks like an active week coming up. Expand Yeah, the hits just keep on coming on the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 This is over 100 hours out. Too much attention to specifics right now. It will likely snow somewhere within 250 miles of central park on Sunday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The key to the gfs coming in more amplified was getting the southern feature (1) out ahead of our norther piece,(2) captures it in the flow, as it rounds the trough base, and back flows the energy as it swings negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:40 PM, mikem81 said: This is over 100 hours out. Too much attention to specifics right now. It will likely snow somewhere within 250 miles of central park on Sunday Night. Expand 500 is really all anyone should care about at this point, some surface features, but they’re indicative of the mid level setup anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:41 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The key to the gfs coming in more amplified was getting the southern feature (1) out ahead of our norther piece,(2) captures it in the flow, as it rounds the trough base, and back flows the energy as it swings negative Expand The GFS is probably right about the northern low ahead of the storm scouring the high and cold air out. It’s probably wrong in some aspect though about the storm itself given it’s a southern stream wave. The GFS virtually never handles those correctly at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 4:43 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS is probably right about the northern low ahead of the storm scouring the high and cold air out. It’s probably wrong in some aspect though about the storm itself given it’s a southern stream wave. The GFS virtually never handles those correctly at this range Expand We’ve also seen models are pure sheet in nailing multi wave interactions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Old vs new ULL over Hudson Bay unchanged neg tilt relativity unchanged however note the southern vort interaction rounding the trough, less disjointed, better upward flow, and stronger lead energy oppose to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 UKIE appears to have no storm at all really. Maybe a weak 1000-1005 low going up the coast but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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