UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I’m starting this thread cause after looking at 500 on both the GFS/GGEM/EURO, I’m not buying the SLP developing that far SE... Neg trough, strong consolidated energy rounding the axis, looking at 500 this looks like snow philly to Boston imo...the convection over the Atlantic drawing our SLP, was similar to the blizzard, although not nearly as strong or same set up verbatim, we saw the SLP trend west as the models weakened the convection and backed the flow consistent with a negative trough, I think this storm has room to come west, and we shouldn’t right it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 11 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I’m starting this thread cause after looking at 500 on both the GFS/GGEM/EURO, I’m not buying the SLP developing that far SE... Neg trough, strong consolidated energy rounding the axis, looking at 500 this looks like snow philly to Boston imo...the convection over the Atlantic drawing our SLP, was similar to the blizzard, although not nearly as strong or same set up verbatim, we saw the SLP trend west as the models weakened the convection and backed the flow consistent with a negative trough, I think this storm has room to come west, and we shouldn’t right it off Euro is hinting at it moving "left" closer to the coast - - so yes let's hope we don't have to "right" it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 PNA looks flat to get this closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Even if it doesn't come closer to the coast, we could see around an inch of snow tuesday morning as the upper trough swings through (as 12z NAM shows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2018 Author Share Posted January 27, 2018 Inverted trough snows look to be our only shot on this one, models have moved away from the Neg trough/amplified look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Rgem now shows a moderate snow event for the whole area just like the sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Rgem now shows a moderate snow event for the whole area just like the sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: sloppy coating south of I- 80 at best and RGEM is out of range - rain mixing with changing to snow at end maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 18Z NAM is LOL worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 18Z NAM is LOL worthy Every model shifted west today Ukie was the wettest before the Nam came out Hi res also looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Rgem is rain to moderate snow West of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Not a bad look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 RGEM is a 2 to 4 inch snow for the entire area. Do we have a developing situation here? Looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 GFS is now running, curious to see what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, sferic said: GFS is now running, curious to see what it says. Precip is further west but nothing like the short term models. Light snow for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 I warned not to write this event off rgem and nam look nice for coastal section, if I had to bet, ELI, and SENE should get a nice 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 Nice hit for NYMETRO, 1” of mood snow up to ABY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 Impressive jump in moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Good job as usual Bill ,this is a surprising turn of events,,,,,anyone think that temps could be an issue after all ground is pretty warm also 50 degrees out there today , thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I’ll be the first to admit I tossed this one. Anything more then an inch will be nice to pad the January today’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Impressive jump in moisture How much of this fell today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 18z HRDPS shifts west along with the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Are there any numbers being projected for NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 12 minutes ago, sferic said: Are there any numbers being projected for NYC/LI? HRDPS has 3-6 for NYC This looks like a 1-3 inch event to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: HRDPS has 3-6 for NYC This looks like a 1-3 inch event to me Is the 1-3 along a line with greatest North/ West or South/East ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Almost like clockwork watching these lurch west last minute. I would definitely keep an eye out especially closer to the coast for at least a solid advisory event. The low is looking better organized and shifting west on all guidance late today and I don’t see a significant reason to call it wrong. Let’s see if it continues overnight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Almost like clockwork watching these lurch west last minute. I would definitely keep an eye out especially closer to the coast for at least a solid advisory event. The low is looking better organized and shifting west on all guidance late today and I don’t see a significant reason to call it wrong. Let’s see if it continues overnight and tomorrow. These are happening alot this winter for some reason. The short term models are always doing better than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said: How much of this fell today? Next to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 Hi res rgem impressive streak of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, sferic said: Are there any numbers being projected for NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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