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Mid Winter Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018


dryslot

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February is going to wind up being my 6th warmest February along with 2nd wettest in my record since 1985.  That says a lot about this month's character around here.  The "wetness" of the month allowed it to sneak into 10th wettest Met winter...

Hopefully March is a better month...at least it's off to an interesting start.

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43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wish. 

55.3F Torch.  My fields around the house are now just about bare.  Looking all around me in level areas not facing the SW or in the woods, deep glaciated snow.  I think what also helps me is my high elevation.  Several systems torched on the hilltops this season while down below the cold stagnant air kept them in the 30's.  Boy the settlers that built my house in 1795 new how to site it.  I could go out and rake my gardens and do spring clean up now.  Took the leaf blower out and cleaned off the driveway too.

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10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

55.3F Torch.  My fields around the house are now just about bare.  Looking all around me in level areas not facing the SW or in the woods, deep glaciated snow.  I think what also helps me is my high elevation.  Several systems torched on the hilltops this season while down below the cold stagnant air kept them in the 30's.  Boy the settlers that built my house in 1795 new how to site it.  I could go out and rake my gardens and do spring clean up now.  Took the leaf blower out and cleaned off the driveway too.

Longer growing season, no risk for floods, no extreme -20s/-30s in winter, nice breezes in the summer. Hills FTW agriculture wise.

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55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Longer growing season, no risk for floods, no extreme -20s/-30s in winter, nice breezes in the summer. Hills FTW agriculture wise.

Yup.  All good points.  When we had a historian come to the house he pointed out all you mentioned. 

SW exposure warmer.

High elevation longer growing season both ends

Quicker drying of fields for the sheep, cows etc.

House also is not right on top of the hill it still rises about 200 feet to my NW so wind protection from the cold weather

Also he said it made settlers less lonely when they had large views.  Could see distance homesteads..

George Washington was President in 1795.  Wow...

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1 hour ago, Hazey said:

Well we passed our futility record but still in ratter territory. Win some loose some. e68044389ea1ccfda3d4ce44b7c35b18.jpg

That average is about 5" below that of the local (Farmington) co-op, but the record is nearly 2 feet higher.  Farmington's top winter of the 125 on recordwas 164" (417 cm) in 68-69

After Sunday's 2.3" underperformer, the past 3 days have reached 43, 44, 51, but have only taken away 2" of pack, which is armor plated 15".

February was -3.4 after 10 days, then +8.3 from then on.  Those last 18 days featured 16 AN, and 8 ranging from +13 to +22.

Avg max:  33.25   +4.1, and 2nd highest of 20, trailing 2012.  Mildest was 55 on 2/21, topping last Feb's 54 for monthly record.
Avg. min:  9.93   +3.9   6th highest, over 7° cooler than 2010.   Coldest was a sneaky fake -22 on the 9th.  Max that day was 23.
Avg. mean: 21.59  +4.0   3rd mildest, behind 2010, 2012.

Precip:  2.71"   -0.35"   Most in one day was 0.95" in the 2/7 snowstorm.
Snow:  19.1"  -4.0"    Had 8.5" on 2/7, 9.0 storm total.
Depth:  Averaged 18.3", just 0.6" BN, with the peak at 23" on 2/8.  Jan. 4 is tops so far at 24", and barring something not evident for at least 10 days (per GFS), that ought to stand.

After the no-thaw frigidity of Feb. 2015, these last 3 Febs have each finished with major thaws. Last year March turned very cold after see-sawing for a week or so.  This year I've not seen a BN day forecast from GFS 16-day since (seemingly) forever.  We're at peak avg snowpack (21") at present, so the current 15" is a half foot BN.  Cumulative snowfall is 4.5" BN, still over 90% of avg.  It's been a 3-storm winter - good storms all - but with little else of snowy note.

The 9 cherrypicked weeks Nov. 7 thru Jan. 8 averaged 8.0° BN.  Since then temps have been +4.7, and that looks to edge higher for the near future.  I don't think I've seen this kind of abrupt (and with staying power) temp switch since 1989-90, and that winter kept producing warning-criteria storms, 4 of which came after the switch (plus a 6.8" near miss.)  So far, the only post-switch WSW was Feb. 7-8, with nothing else getting past the halfway mark.  

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19 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I always thought Barry Burbank was one of the best Mets in the Boston market.  One of the greats like the one who started it all, Don Kent.

Barry celebrated 40 years with WBZ.  Here is the Utube clip.  Fun to watch..

 

I just watched and this brought back a flood of memories. In the 1960's my grandparents lived in Portland - overlooking Deering Oaks Park - every morning started with WBZ radio playing in the kitchen listening to Don Kent's morning forecast. My grandfather's business was impacted by weather and he had all this folksy weather forecasting rules about the color of sunsets, shape of clouds, etc. But I remember him always saying Don Kent was the truth.

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11 hours ago, Hazey said:

Well we passed our futility record but still in ratter territory. Win some loose some. e68044389ea1ccfda3d4ce44b7c35b18.jpg

 

Interesting as some similarities here though not as close to futility.  Looking at mountain snowfall, at 3,000ft I've measured 179" this season so far.  Solidly tracking below the 20-year average of 306". 

2015-16 was futility with 153" while last winter measured 375", the highest since 2000-01's record.  This year is quietly heading into the bottom of the bin if it doesn't pick up.  January and February were both significantly below normal snowfall, despite some good events. 

But when you average 2" per day or so in the heart of winter, a few good events doesn't get it done.  Comparing this winter to last winter is eye-opening.  Last winter was the 108" in 22 days type stuff...or 52" in 60 hours.  Plus 3 warning criteria events in April of 10-14".  But you need that stuff to get to 375".

This winter we are almost 200" short of last year's total though there are still 6 weeks of good possible accumulations.  However, we need to be clipping away with at LEAST 15" per week to maintain average on the mountain.   To gain on average we need to go through a month worth of 18-24"/week average. 

It's pretty crazy to me how much of a deficit we've built up this winter, especially compared to the epicness of last winter.

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It's funny how subjective ones feel of a winter can be. That graph I posted shows last winter was a top 3 all time snow season with nearly 400cms and I barely remember it. The snow came fast and furious but melted so quick it was like it didn't happen. I'm not a pack guy but I do like snow to stick around for a little while. I'd take half that total if there was only one or two melt offs. That's me though.

 

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1 hour ago, Hazey said:

It's funny how subjective ones feel of a winter can be. That graph I posted shows last winter was a top 3 all time snow season with nearly 400cms and I barely remember it. The snow came fast and furious but melted so quick it was like it didn't happen. I'm not a pack guy but I do like snow to stick around for a little while. I'd take half that total if there was only one or two melt offs. That's me though.

 

Long periods of deep snow pack are becoming rarer as the climate warms. It's much more typical now to see heavy snowstorms that melt quickly.

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Kind of a weird question, but anyone familiar with the Waltham area? Starting a new job Monday that is going to require me to train with someone using their vehicle. Guy I’m training with wants me to meet him at a staples and presumably leave my car there for the shift.

Good chance I’ll be towed? Or should I be alright if it’s during the day.

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