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Mid Winter Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018


dryslot

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17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea, I was wrong about this. Nice call on this one man—you saw this days ago. Tip as well. Def going to be in the upper 50’s to near 60 with the clouds already out. 

Seperately, I’m not nearly as unsure of downsloping as I am of how a Pacific with a massive UL trough in mid winter completely messes with climo into NNE. Surface looks benign but the atmosphere in general is torched. Pretty incredible. I should have noted the -PNA is essentially peaking today.....

Honestly that's just what guidance had. I certainly didn't pull any magic...lol. Post front atmosphere with 552 thicknesses and increasing sun angle usually equal torch. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly that's just what guidance had. I certainly didn't pull any magic...lol. Post front atmosphere with 552 thicknesses and increasing sun angle usually equal torch. 

I mean this would even be 40s in mid Jan. We seem to get these mini thaws a couple of times every winter.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yep, and hopefully we enjoy today. Tomorrow is the worst possible outcome down here. It's the coldest rain thermodynamically possible... :lol:

We had that last night. An nour of 31.8 crap and the 32.3 for hours. It doesn’t freeze nor melt the 4” thick ice pack...just rots on top of it. The NAM cooled a little at H75 up here so there will likely be a quick thump of 3-5” frozen before we go R/ZR. Hopefully today is a big melt/dry day and then we limit the QPF as much as possible tomorrow. I’d like to thaw the ground out and let the water soak in ahead of the late week system. Usually the most challenging scenario wins out so I’ll probably get 3” of sleet and then 3” of rain from the weenie storm. 

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0.4" IP/SN with a bit of ZR at th end.  Was thinking of icefishing today, but the wind is gusting 20-25, so even with warm temps it would not be nice out there.  Better to work on inventorying the woodlot - less windy in the woods and the pup will get hour of scratch and sniff.

Saw a 4-7" forecast for the hood tomorrow, the P&C this morning has 2-4, and the low-middle-high table has Farmington at 1/3/8. (and a 1% chance of 12"+  :wacko: )  Those high-end numbers are loony tunes.

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22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It does feel like we turned a corner temp wise. Hopefully we’re done with the arctic nonsense. Just cold enough to snow is fine with me. 

You need to move south with the chicks. :lol:  You've got enough of it(ice) this year.  If I didn't look at the calendar. I would think it was late March outside.  Sun is bright, ground is thawed.

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18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I go 100 gal at a whack, Paid 2.59 two weeks ago right before it spiked to 2.99, Now its back down to 2.39, Need another 100 gal, Some times i luck out, Sometimes i don't on this method.

We pre pay for 1000 gallons each summer...this year at $2.30.  We then but price protection...this year at $0.18/gallon.   Sometimes we get a credit, sometimes we don’t 

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We pre pay for 1000 gallons each summer...this year at $2.30.  We then but price protection...this year at $0.18/gallon.   Sometimes we get a credit, sometimes we don’t 

Some friends of ours do the same as you, They say it can go both ways, I certainly don't go with automatic delivery either, I call when i need it.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some friends of ours do the same as you, They say it can go both ways, I certainly don't go with automatic delivery either, I call when i need it.

Yeah...looks like I got boned a couple weeks ago, but I needed it so oh well. I have a pellet stove in the living room too, so I have that option....but I like having the furnace keep the basement and floors warm.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...looks like I got boned a couple weeks ago, but I needed it so oh well. I have a pellet stove in the living room too, so I have that option....but I like having the furnace keep the basement and floors warm.

Been there getting boned, Not much you can do when the float is below a 1/4 of a tank like i have been before rolling the dice on price................ lol

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23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some friends of ours do the same as you, They say it can go both ways, I certainly don't go with automatic delivery either, I call when i need it.

It helps me with my monthly budgeting, too.  I know exactly what I am paying per month (this year $152 per month) and we do auto delivery.  One less thing to think about.

I have done it in the past where I watch the market and try to buy when it is low, but I found that tricky.

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