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Mid Winter Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018


dryslot

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

is there? I mean you set 2nd highest Min temps in Portland Jan 12 beating 2017 on the same day but still didn't beat 1885. I don't think records being broken one year apart indicate any sort of pattern or climate change. 

You don't think there is? Breaking warm records more frequently, versus cold records, is not nothing. 

There are over 3,500 February days in the period of record at CON, and we broke the all time February record two years in a row. That's abnormal.

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42 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

PWM and CON with all time Feb highs, MWN was already mentioned for their all time winter high.

NH likely broke their state Feb record (looks like the CWSU in ASH last year at 73 was the previous). ME likely has broken the state record as well with SFM getting up to at least 74.

Gotta be similar in VT with numerous all-time monthly highs set and the 77F at DDH  is probably hard to beat for a VT official station in February.

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

like saying take out the 13 hot Days in July 12 and it would have been a cold summer

Not quite the same. If you take out the 13 hottest days from summer 2012 this is what you end up with for seasonal departures:

BDL +0.4 (instead of +1.8)

BOS -0.1 (instead of +1.4)

PVD -0.5 (instead of +0.8)

ORH +0.8 (instead of +2.1)

BDR +1.0 (instead of +2.2)

 

Take out the 13 coldest days from this winter and you will be +2.2 to +3.3 not including today's ridiculous departures.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Gotta be similar in VT with numerous all-time monthly highs set and the 77F at DDH  is probably hard to beat for a VT official station in February.

The best I could see was 73 at the ASH CWSU last year for NH, which has been broken by several at least 75 degree obs. And ME was a little iffier with clean records. There was a 70 degree at Eustis, but it was surrounded by well below zero low temps, so if you toss that the next highest Feb temp was 69, which SFM has shattered today with 74.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You don't think there is? Breaking warm records more frequently, versus cold records, is not nothing. 

There are over 3,500 February days in the period of record at CON, and we broke the all time February record two years in a row. That's abnormal.

Yeah climate change is going to involve records on both end of the spectrum BUT we'll see them lean warm.  I mean these torches are ferocious in recent years. 

February 2015 doesn't mean no climate change but the warm records seem to our number cold records like 3:1.  

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48 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Just curious as to how big your operation is? Did you plant Sugar Maples? I assume it's a PVC system?

I tap about 600 trees, mostly with tubing.  We produce about 250-300 gallons ourselves but I run a side business of supplying syrup for commercial buyers like breweries and distilleries.  After this maple season I hope to finish my commercial kitchen space  where we'll pack retail containers for sale in grocery stores.  I'm hoping to make it my full time gig!

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

Quite a disparity between the cold and warm records broken. This has been a broken record for 2 decades now. 

Yeah not even close between warm records and cold records.

Of course cold records are still getting set but for every one of those there are three more warm records.

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

I tap about 600 trees, mostly with tubing.  We produce about 250-300 gallons ourselves but I run a side business of supplying syrup for commercial buyers like breweries and distilleries.  After this maple season I hope to finish my commercial kitchen space  where we'll pack retail containers for sale in grocery stores.  I'm hoping to make it my full time gig!

Do you sell any of the old grade B / new very dark color? I can’t find that anywhere.

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4 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I tap about 600 trees, mostly with tubing.  We produce about 250-300 gallons ourselves but I run a side business of supplying syrup for commercial buyers like breweries and distilleries.  After this maple season I hope to finish my commercial kitchen space  where we'll pack retail containers for sale in grocery stores.  I'm hoping to make it my full time gig!

Nerd question:  Do you have a reverse osmosis machine to help reduce your water content/boil time?

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Do you sell any of the old grade B / new very dark color? I can’t find that anywhere.

I know some folks in Henniker who do, but they don't sell it at a market or anything.  just anyone they know who wants it.  They're short-handed this year, though, and so they're not tapping.  It's a tragedy given the amount of sap that's flowing.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do you sell any of the old grade B / new very dark color? I can’t find that anywhere.

Usually.  I sold the rest of what I had to a buyer in Idaho back in December.  I should have some at the end of this season. 

I would check with a local sugarhouse, especially at the end of the season and just ask for it.  They should have it at some point in the season.

9 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Nerd question:  Do you have a reverse osmosis machine to help reduce your water content/boil time?

I'm actually building one this year because of all the sap.  I'm hoping to just run a single pass to to reduce some of the sap.  I'm not looking to do a high concentration.

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52 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I would say the hysteria is because of the lopsidedness of it. You can go down the list of statistics and see how they are all heavily warm biased. This winter was effectively 13 days long. Take them out and it has been a blow torch of a winter.

This. Of course it can still get cold... and we can still break records. But what's astonishing to me is breaking a 500mb geopotential height record by 100 meters for all of winter... or even forecasting all-time warmth for BDL like it's nothing. 

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12 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I tap about 600 trees, mostly with tubing.  We produce about 250-300 gallons ourselves but I run a side business of supplying syrup for commercial buyers like breweries and distilleries.  After this maple season I hope to finish my commercial kitchen space  where we'll pack retail containers for sale in grocery stores.  I'm hoping to make it my full time gig!

Do you get 250-300 off 600 trees? 

 I'm up to about 150 and made 30-35 gal last year, but I'm mostly gravity. Its a struggle on a 2x4 evap. I built an RO that helps alot but it's a time consuming hobby. Lots of fun though. My next step is building a real sugar house, mines very makeshift at the moment.

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The other thing is that we're seeing a dramatic shrinking in the cold season if you use first freeze to last freeze as a metric. Also a big drop in snow depth (which is pretty remarkable given that our annual snowfall certainly hasn't decreased). I mean you really can't deny that what's happening these days is remarkably anomalous.

What I'm interested in is if the presence of these massive ridges and even more extreme warming in the Arctic can lead to pockets of localized/extended cold. If you've got a big ridge you need a trough somewhere! 

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43 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You don't think there is? Breaking warm records more frequently, versus cold records, is not nothing. 

There are over 3,500 February days in the period of record at CON, and we broke the all time February record two years in a row. That's abnormal.

I think i said the climate is warming???? 

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1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Do you get 250-300 off 600 trees? 

 I'm up to about 150 and made 30-35 gal last year, but I'm mostly gravity. Its a struggle on a 2x4 evap. I built an RO that helps alot but it's a time consuming hobby. Lots of fun though. My next step is building a real sugar house, mines very makeshift at the moment.

I've been using the 3/16 tubing for the past couple of years and have some vacuum on other parts.  I've lost count on the number of taps but I go based on the number of drop lines that I usually make but it's around 650-700 I think.

Sounds like you have the maple bug!  Do you post on the maple trader site?

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The other thing is that we're seeing a dramatic shrinking in the cold season if you use first freeze to last freeze as a metric. Also a big drop in snow depth (which is pretty remarkable given that our annual snowfall certainly hasn't decreased). I mean you really can't deny that what's happening these days is remarkably anomalous.

What I'm interested in is if the presence of these massive ridges and even more extreme warming in the Arctic can lead to pockets of localized/extended cold. If you've got a big ridge you need a trough somewhere! 

I feel like this is the big area of research going on right now. And unfortunately with science, you just need more data, and these correlation studies are all still grain of salt type stuff.

But the disappearance of Arctic sea ice could certainly be a factor in a warmer atmosphere in that region, leading to more persistent ridges. It just so happens it is in a favorable area for New England cold shots too.

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6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The other thing is that we're seeing a dramatic shrinking in the cold season if you use first freeze to last freeze as a metric. Also a big drop in snow depth (which is pretty remarkable given that our annual snowfall certainly hasn't decreased). I mean you really can't deny that what's happening these days is remarkably anomalous.

What I'm interested in is if the presence of these massive ridges and even more extreme warming in the Arctic can lead to pockets of localized/extended cold. If you've got a big ridge you need a trough somewhere! 

I was going to mention this as well but hadn't finished doing a full research of the stats. Anecdotally I thought this was true so a while back I plotted BDL's date of first frost using a 10-year SMA for the last few decades and since 2002, BDL's first frost date has increased from 9/29 to 10/7 in just 15 years. I wanted to do something a little more thorough by including co-ops and maybe not going by the first frost/freeze, but maybe choosing something a little less noisy but haven't gotten around to it.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I think i said the climate is warming???? 

I also am not arguing that you don't think it's warming. I'm saying that it is not normal to break an all time record two years in a row. Sure every year has a tiny percentage chance of that happening, but it's definitely on the tail of the distribution.

Imagine if BOS had done snowfall 2015, then broke it again in 2016. Theoretically it is possible (1 in however many million Sam calculated for one year, then factor in doing it twice in a row) but people would all be screaming "new normal."

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

interesting YTD, don't you think its harder to break cold records in cold season and the same with warm season??

I don't think that's what is actually occurring though. We're still setting plenty of warm records in the warm season.

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