usedtobe Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 We need the NAM temps and the GFS precip then maybe DC would see an inch and folks to the north up to 2. The radar from the high res NAm looks like we could see a brief period of moderate snow with the arctic front though it probably would be very brief sort of like a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS would be my biggest event of the year. Go figure: works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The RGEM looks more like the NAM than the GFS. Gets an inch into DC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 One thing that seems pretty common to me is that vorts are often modeled stronger and further south than they end up being as you close in on an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I'm concerned about rain mixing in too much down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Pretty interesting band setting up in eastern WV. Maybe that will end up being the back edge of the precip shield and it will fill in and turn to snow as the temps fall? I know I am searching for a win at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: One thing that seems pretty common to me is that vorts are often modeled stronger and further south than they end up being as you close in on an event This one has been weird. It started up in NY/PA/NJ and even SNE then models shifted best lift across lower PA and close to the mason dixon, but have since trended back to central/northern PA the last 24-48 hours. A few runs actually had it tracking S of us to near RIC but those seem like large outliers so we didn't talk much about them. Pretty typical with these little waves. Very hard to pinpoint and it gives the impression that the shifts are large because the shield is so small. In reality the moving around has all taken place inside of 150 miles of latitude if you discount the fleeting southern solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This one has been weird. It started up in NY/PA/NJ and even SNE then models shifted best lift across lower PA and close to the mason dixon, but have since trended back to central/northern PA the last 24-48 hours. A few runs actually had it tracking S of us to near RIC but those seem like large outliers so we didn't talk much about them. Pretty typical with these little waves. Very hard to pinpoint and it gives the impression that the shifts are large because the shield is so small. In reality the moving around has all taken place inside of 150 miles of latitude if you discount the fleeting southern solutions. I just went back and looked at the difference between 12z run yesterday that was really solid that you and I discussed a bit yesterday and today's 12z and that's the biggest takeaway. It's about that 100 mile shift north with best mid and upper level diffluence, so we are on the outside looking in outside the arctic boundary. Now, it's possible we see it settle a bit further south to give the sub-forum more love, but I think the chances of greater than 1.5" will be for our northern brethren only (North of I-70) with most likely totals around coating to 1" for everyone. Dang shame. I really liked the look. Been dealing with wisdom teeth issues, which are almost better now, so was hoping for some cheering up in the snow department. Might have to wake up at 4am to see the initial line if it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Euro is pretty paltry with qpf again. .05 at best through the region with the best stuff locked up in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is pretty paltry with qpf again. .05 at best through the region with the best stuff locked up in PA. Yeah. I think we ca put this one out of it's misery at this point. Euro and NAM both give my area 0.0. GFS does still try to give me over an inch somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I think we ca put this one out of it's misery at this point. Euro and NAM both give my area 0.0. GFS does still try to give me over an inch somehow. Just about chips fall at this point. The range is tight and none of it includes a solid thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Euro is pretty paltry with qpf again. .05 at best through the region with the best stuff locked up in PA. Sounds your post from last storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Latest HRRR has a decent line come through tonight. Likes just about everyone for half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 18z NAM brings in a band of snow during morning rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Today's radar has looked like the same half hour loop all day long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Today's radar has looked like the same half hour loop all day long That's not what's supposed to impact us. This hrrr run shows the lines from kentucky to Pennsylvania eventually merging and tracking towards us late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z NAM brings in a band of snow during morning rush hour 18z 3km NAM has what looks to be a convective snow squall band move through 11z/12z (through I-95 corridor that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z 3km NAM has what looks to be a convective snow squall band move through 11z/12z (through I-95 corridor that is) Some of it would still be rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 52 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Some of it would still be rain though. Its snow unless you are south of EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Borrowed from the NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Borrowed from the NYC forum That would be awesome. Give me 2 hours of snow boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Borrowed from the NYC forum That's an impressive look in terms of lift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Hrrrrrrrrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Noticed the roads brined around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Noticed the roads brined around here. Puffy, plumes of brine. Totally expecting a shut out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 HRRR’s are showing a bit of backbuilding after the squall comes through. Would be nice for the squall to lay down a surface for anything else that falls later to accumulate on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Traffic cams show snow out in Garrett County. P&C at our house is 3-5" - the mountains will do well in this upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I am surprised LWX didn't issue an WWA for the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I am surprised LWX didn't issue an WWA for the morning commute. Not needed... ground temps in the 40s and no snow accumulation expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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