pasnownut Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That's the way I saw it. By the time precip arrives, she's a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That's the way I saw it. By the time precip arrives, she's a fish. No one said the coastal impacted us. But it might be indirectly impacting us by changing the track of the feature behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No one said the coastal impacted us. But it might be indirectly impacting us by changing the track of the feature behind it. Btrwx vort of interest has always been separate and trailing coastal. PSU is stating that the closer to the coast it gets,the more it robs trailing vort of energy. As the coastal has largely been a fish storm ....we want that. Basically we are just wanting to have our little vort all by itself . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No one said the coastal impacted us. But it might be indirectly impacting us by changing the track of the feature behind it. Looks like the issue is the ns energy is tracking further north. Euro and nams are similar now. I don't think the coastal is having much impact. The track is mostly unchanged with coastal but the best dynamics with the ul energy are trending north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Wouldn't any snowflakes become rimmed with the best lift with the band being in the saturated 850-750mb layer (850-750mb temps -5 to -10*C) below the dgz leading to supercooled water droplets freezing to the snowflakes falling from above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like the issue is the ns energy is tracking further north. Euro and nams are similar now. I don't think the coastal is having much impact. The track is mostly unchanged with coastal but the best dynamics with the ul energy are trending north. Your probably right but I was wondering if it's not a coincidence that as the coastal trended more amplified that the ns energy started to trend north also. It could be a total coincidence but I can also think of some logical reasons the two are linked. Either way it doesn't matter the end result is no good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Looks like the issue is the ns energy is tracking further north. Euro and nams are similar now. I don't think the coastal is having much impact. The track is mostly unchanged with coastal but the best dynamics with the ul energy are trending north. Well here we are again....Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Well here we are again.... Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Oh don't start that again. Yes we might get left out. But our fail will be a win for someone else. It's trended snowier in some places to our north that haven't had much snow either. Yea the coast has but inland areas of pa are pretty far below avg also. So someone loses and someone wins. And as bob said eventually something will shift into us at someone else's expense. There is no cosmic conspiracy to steal your snow. It's just random chance not working out for us lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Well here we are again.... Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Still a band of snow on tap. The best dynamics never got further south than the mason dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Still a band of snow on tap. The best dynamics never got further south than the mason dixon. just keep thinking bonus snow lol...right? Pattern change not suppose to start till after 1s week of Feb when you did your Jan 16 PSA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Gfs and the ICON have between .1-.2qpf through the area. Acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: just keep thinking bonus snow lol...right? Pattern change not suppose to start till after 1s week of Feb when you did your Jan 16 PSA Every event is mutually exclusive to me. Snow is snow. Someone in our sub could easily get 2". When it first showed up 2 days ago we weren't in the game at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs and the ICON have between .1-.2qpf through the area. Acceptable. Big difference between .1 and .2. Right now I would take 2" and do cartwheels. Another 1" event (I've had like 5 of those now) ehh. But your right in that it's not over or dire. I don't like the trends though but nothing is a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Well we should see an WWA up sometime tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 RGEM ensemble cuts back again. The high-res RGEM lost the contribution from the coastal, but still looks better than the RGEM / REPS. Looking at the Kuchera ratios, it looks like most of us can expect ratios of less than 10:1. We'll still see some shifts in the next 36 hours, but right now I'm hoping for an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The latest from LWX: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Another cold front along with a potent upper-level trough axis will be fast on the heels of the departing shortwave tonight. This is expected to pass through the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands late this evening...then across the Shenandoah Valley overnight and toward the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas toward Tuesday morning. Frontogenetical forcing along and just ahead of the cold front along with the upper-level trough axis will be enough lift tolikely bring a period of snow with the frontal passage. The best chance for a period of snow is expected overnight across the Shenandoah Valley...first thing Tuesday morning for the Washington Metropolitan area...and Tuesday morning for the Baltimore Metropolitan area and for locations near the Bay. For most areas...snowfall accumulations around a coating up to one inch are possible. Did allow for 1-2" near the Mason Dixon line and the far northern/western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore where colder temps will cause higher SLR`s. Either way...aside from the ridge tops most valley locations will be near or above freezing ahead of this system. This combined with the recent warm temps may cause difficulties for snow to stick on paved surfaces. However...strong cold advection behind the boundary will likely cause temps to dip below freezing during the morning rush for the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas. Therefore...any wet or slushy roads do have the chance to freeze during the morning rush. Also...snowfall rates may be moderate to locally heavy for a brief period and if so that can stick on paved surfaces despite the recent warm conditions. Did issue a Winter Weather Advisory for locations along/west of the Allegheny Front where confidence in higher snowfall totals are higher due to an upslope component to the low-level flow. Elsewhere...a Winter Weather Advisory will have to be considered for the Metro areas Tuesday morning but confidence is too low for an advisory at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3k juiced up from 0z to the 6z. Looks like 2-3 hours of snow for some areas . <snip> H5 looking more vigorous this run NAM looks good for your backyard, more so than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3k juiced up from 0z to the 6z. Looks like 2-3 hours of snow for some areas . H5 looking more vigorous this run If you zoom in, you can clearly see the MoCo / HoCo (and Caroll) death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 12Z NAM in a non event. 0.0 for Winchester again. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Scraff said: If you zoom in, you can clearly see the MoCo / HoCo (and Caroll) death band. Well the NAM (12k) is not playing nice this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: Well the NAM (12k) is not playing nice this morning. Big difference between 12z and 06z is 06z had more precip making its way north from the coastal portion of the storm. 12z does not do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, mappy said: Big difference between 12z and 06z is 06z had more precip making its way north from the coastal portion of the storm. 12z does not do that. Ha! The NAM has been terrible with this setup. 18z yesterday it had a band of snow from the coastal on the eastern shore then lost it at 0z then brought it back at 6z then lost it again at 12z. It has been pretty stingy with the IVT for a while now though... I'll say this, somebody is probably going to end up with 1"+ out of this but we won't know exactly where until any bands actually set up. It is going to be fun for the hour that it actually snows though. Should come down hard and have very low visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, MD Snow said: Ha! The NAM has been terrible with this setup. 18z yesterday it had a band of snow from the coastal on the eastern shore then lost it at 0z then brought it back at 6z then lost it again at 12z. It has been pretty stingy with the IVT for a while now though... Or its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: Or its right. I'm not saying its not right with the IVT, just that it's been kind of spotty with it's precip shield from the coastal over the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 seasoned vets correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like this is a case where we just needed that clipper/vort further south. i feel like our best opps are when it's sliding through southern va whereas we're kind of in the battleground for this one. also, temps are really not our side (battleground stuff). it'll take some moderate snow to get any kind of stickage given the recent warmth...at least for the cities. i'm still in for some snow tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, 87storms said: seasoned vets correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like this is a case where we just needed that clipper/vort further south. i feel like our best opps are when it's sliding through southern va whereas we're kind of in the battleground for this one. also, temps are really not our side (battleground stuff). it'll take some moderate snow to get any kind of stickage given the recent warmth...at least for the cities. i'm still in for some snow tv. Good assessment. And the precip totals are not as heavy as they were in earlier runs. I dont know if it is due to the coastal robbing some moisture from the following wave or if the wave itself is just weaker. But it is not as vigorous as it was modeled to be last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, 87storms said: seasoned vets correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like this is a case where we just needed that clipper/vort further south. i feel like our best opps are when it's sliding through southern va whereas we're kind of in the battleground for this one. also, temps are really not our side (battleground stuff). it'll take some moderate snow to get any kind of stickage given the recent warmth...at least for the cities. i'm still in for some snow tv. yeah looks like we want that vort further south. NAM saturday (i think) had a good example of a pretty darn good looking vort pass that would do well for us. From there it really is just where the IVT sets up shop and dumps. Where that happens will probably be real time tracking and not easily forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Good assessment. And the precip totals are not as heavy as they were in earlier runs. I dont know if it is due to the coastal robbing some moisture from the following wave or if the wave itself is just weaker. But it is not as vigorous as it was modeled to be last week. mostly i'm just basing it off of experience living here...not so much sound meteorology, but it does seem like we need to be on the northern side of these systems otherwise we end up with a quick and/or showery type of event. gotta optimize these types of systems or they'll leave you with conversational snow. i did just see a tweet that because of the recent rains there may not be much in the way of brining, so that could make roads interesting in the morning if we do get a mod/heavy band of snow coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 The GFS would be my biggest event of the year. Go figure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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