Cobalt Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Totals for GFS: 850s are rock solid during this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, cae said: That's the 12z GGEM. (That site is confusing.) I mention this because the extended 18z RGEM gives me a little more snow. Ah, you're right. Even though the 18z run shows on the dropdown, the panels flip to 12z after 48 hours. Yes, confusing. Still looks good so I'm leaving my pic up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ah, you're right. Even though the 18z run shows on the dropdown, the panels flip to 12z after 48 hours. Yes, confusing. Still looks good so I'm leaving my pic up. lol watch the Jan 29-30 storm beat the Feb 2 storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: watch the Jan 29-30 storm beat the Feb 2 storm lol I'd give equal odds and I'm not even joking. Ivt is juicing up at short leads. Can't not like that. The thing that sucks is events like this divide our sub. There won't be some pretty evenly distributed qpf shield. Some folks will prob get banded and others will get mad at their light non-accum snow. If both perform then it becomes more apparent that we are clear of the black cloud of bad luck that has gripped us all season so far. It's not like this winter has been void of opportunities like last winter. We just can't catch a damn break in the corridor. Time for that S to change man. I'm over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Gefs herd mentality in full swing but it should be at short leads. Ivt feature has been nearly non existent on the gefs until 18z. Lookin sweet. A decent number of 2-4" solutions in the mix but not widespread 2-4. Bullseye style with no one area favored. Shotgun style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs herd mentality in full swing but it should be at short leads. Ivt feature has been nearly non existent on the gefs until 18z. Lookin sweet. A decent number of 2-4" solutions in the mix but not widespread 2-4. Bullseye style with no one area favored. Shotgun style. plenty of shutout panels too...but euro seems to have "locked in on this event" to at least see an inch. Hopefully this thing can maintain or increase and be our event of the year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: plenty of shutout panels too...but euro seems to have "locked in on this event" to at least see an inch. Hopefully this thing can maintain or increase and be our event of the year lol Ensembles are low on the list for useful guidance at short range with a small event but there's really not many shutout panels. Like 3. Timing differences dont capture the event on the panel i posted. I was mostly pointing out that this event is gaining traction for our area right now. The spread is narrowing and for whatever reason the MA seem to be ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Nam amping up h5 compared to 18z through hr45. Good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nam amping up h5 compared to 18z through hr45. Good trend. You would think eventually one of these low probability threats will break right for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 If Nam were to verify it would be a solid 1-2" with some 3" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: If Nam were to verify it would be a solid 1-2" with some 3" totals. I wonder where the 3 would be. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I wonder where the 3 would be. Lol Your house of course! Yeah, I got a little ahead of myself...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 In seriousness these IVTs are fickle. Keep it in the area then hope the banding sets up over you at gametime. That's all you can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2018 Author Share Posted January 28, 2018 Honestly, I think it’s more of a ULL then a IVT now. Looked that way earlier but I think it’s more upper level energy driving this. If I must quibble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Honestly, I think it’s more of a ULL then a IVT now. Looked that way earlier but I think it’s more upper level energy driving this. If I must quibble. Yea, I agree. Still has the ivt look to the isobars but it's looking more like an upper level piece of energy developing on its own. Should be a period of mod or even heavy rates for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Honestly, I think it’s more of a ULL then a IVT now. Looked that way earlier but I think it’s more upper level energy driving this. If I must quibble. It does seem mostly driven by the h5 low pass but i thought there is also a weak IVT helping enhance. At least I think I see it here. frankly if I get 3" I don't care if it's because angels had to take a piss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3k looks fun too. Brings a pretty good line of convective snows through. Doesn't last long but could be fun while it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66degreesnorth Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3k looks fun too. Brings a pretty good line of convective snows through. Doesn't last long but could be fun while it passes. Hey, long time lurker. What's the general timing of these snow "bursts" if they were to actually happen --- middle of the night, or more like Tuesday morning, or still too early to tell?Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Like the nams, the gfs is digging the shortwave a little more through h48. Like seeing these trends close in like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I am not seeing an IVT. There is a definitive vort that is passing under us. The GFS saw it a week ago most of the models have been getting more amped with each model run. Obviously I seem to be in a good spot this time. Elevation/lift helps in these types of events. But I think this ends up being a decent event for most of the subforum. If we werent dealing with spring temps before I think we all score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 44 minutes ago, 66degreesnorth said: Hey, long time lurker. What's the general timing of these snow "bursts" if they were to actually happen --- middle of the night, or more like Tuesday morning, or still too early to tell? Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk Timing seems to be late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. That could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 This is reminding me of that January mini storm a few years ago in the morning that caused school bus havoc Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Gfs looked better at h5 but came in with lower precip. I'm surprised but still a direct hit. Running out of time for a shift to miss completely. Interesting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: This is reminding me of that January mini storm a few years ago in the morning that caused school bus havoc Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Clipper that could? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Like the nams, the gfs is digging the shortwave a little more through h48. Like seeing these trends close in like this. Beginning to believe this is close to a high probability 1-2" event. Maybe 3 in a few spots. I have been pretty skeptical admittedly. Given the lights out, shades down mode we were a week or so ago until sometime in early Feb, any snow this week in our region is a major win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs looked better at h5 but came in with lower precip. I'm surprised but still a direct hit. Running out of time for a shift to miss completely. Interesting event. Ehh these things are so finicky with precip and the globals will struggle to see the details. But we know if we get the right vort pass we're in the game for a surprise. Nothing huge but some isolated 2-3" numbers aren't out. I'm happy that most guidance is converging on the right track. Run to run jumps in qpf on the gfs aren't going to concern me much. Could be just noise given the nature of these type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Beginning to believe this is close to a high probability 1-2" event. Maybe 3 in a few spots. I have been pretty skeptical admittedly. Given the lights out, shades down mode we were a week or so ago until sometime in early Feb, any snow this week in our region is a major win. Looks much more vigorous now than compared to when it first showed up. 3" seems like the top end potential. Getting 2" in the majority of the sub would be reason to party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Looks much more vigorous now than compared to when it first showed up. 3" seems like the top end potential. Getting 2" in the majority of the sub would be reason to party. Better roi on this storm too compared to the last one that caused my meltdown Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Looks much more vigorous now than compared to when it first showed up. 3" seems like the top end potential. Getting 2" in the majority of the sub would be reason to party. Agreed. And I generally don't need any extra incentive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Well the CMC looks to have more interaction with the coastal than other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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