CAPE Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Until the euro or gfs have something meaningful....this excersise is a complete waste of time. The gfs run was a disaster Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk lol Not a good idea to expect the 18z GFS to have a meaningful(notable) change for the better(or worse). It's pretty much going to mirror the 12z run, sometimes a tad better, sometimes worse. In this case, a bit worse. Noise basically. Same with the 0z and 6z runs. The "off" runs rarely lead the way with any meaningful changes imo. Tune back in for the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I'll wait until the IVT comes onshore for optimal data collection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol Not a good idea to expect the 18z GFS to have a meaningful(notable) change for the better(or worse). It's pretty much going to mirror the 12z run, sometimes a tad better, sometimes worse. In this case, a bit worse. Noise basically. Same with the 0z and 6z runs. The "off" runs rarely lead the way with any meaningful changes imo. Tune back in for the 0z run. Yeah, not disaster yet. 1 model run doesn't cause a trend, especially the happy hour GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol Not a good idea to expect the 18z GFS to have a meaningful(notable) change for the better(or worse). It's pretty much going to mirror the 12z run, sometimes a tad better, sometimes worse. In this case, a bit worse. Noise basically. Same with the 0z and 6z runs. The "off" runs rarely lead the way with any meaningful changes imo. Tune back in for the 0z run. Agreed. Never trust happy hour GFS. It’s likely 3 beers deep with wing sauce all over its face. I’ll put money down on 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Goodness let the ICON verify. I get absolutely clobbered out here on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Goodness let the ICON verify. I get absolutely clobbered out here on that run.Germans make great cars not weather modelsSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Scraff said: Agreed. Never trust happy hour GFS. It’s likely 3 beers deep with wing sauce all over its face. I’ll put money down on 0z. This makes no sense. It has been talked about time and time again. The 6Z/18Z are just as important as the 0Z/12Z. This has been confirmed by the Reg Tags in the past. Just because it is not what you see... you should not disregard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 18 minutes ago, Interstate said: This makes no sense. It has been talked about time and time again. The 6Z/18Z are just as important as the 0Z/12Z. This has been confirmed by the Reg Tags in the past. Just because it is not what you see... you should not disregard it. yep. Seen many times the 18z GFS take away our 12z snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 The NAM is ugly. Thank god it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Not sure how accurate the ICON model is yet but it's coming in much more amplified with the coastal on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not sure how accurate the ICON model is yet but it's coming in much more amplified with the coastal on Monday. Seems like rain, n'est pas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Seems like rain, n'est pas? It's rain, while surface temps are 33. Not sure why it doesn't show snow. Euro/GFS 850s were cold too, and their surface temps were much toastier than what the ICON shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not sure how accurate the ICON model is yet but it's coming in much more amplified with the coastal on Monday. It's as accurate as the Germans diesel emissions testing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: It's rain, while surface temps are 33. Not sure why it doesn't show snow. Euro/GFS 850s were cold too, and their surface temps were much toastier than what the ICON shows I wish the icon had soundings. Thicknesses show 850s cold enough. Would think it would be paste unless 925s are warm or something like that. I doubt it though. That looked like a paste setup if it came down hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Icon would probably be a decent event. a couple inches of paste for DC and areas NW. The GFS on the otherhand.. Hopefully it's up to its old tricks, but only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 So we dont have the NAM or the GFS on this run. Concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 So we dont have the NAM or the GFS on this run. Concerning.We dont have the euro...or really any model. It's over. I've seen this game before Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 GGEM drops about 2” for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 GGEM drops about 2” for most of us. Ggem dropping 2 = dustingSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: We dont have the euro...or really any model. It's over. I've seen this game before Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Then turn off your computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wish the icon had soundings. Thicknesses show 850s cold enough. Would think it would be paste unless 925s are warm or something like that. I doubt it though. That looked like a paste setup if it came down hard enough. The precip on the icon is PVA and jet dynamics driven. It's pretty far removed from the actual coastal. It's a tricky setup. The gfs instead develops a front runner wave that takes all the energy off and thus has a weaker vort max and nothing behind. But that actual coastal off the Carolinas is way too progressive. The U.K. and icon get us with an enhanced wave from the upper level energy trailing. For those worried about the nam it develops a healthy IVT but north and I wouldn't worry much everything else is south with that. Still in the game for a fluke from that if nothing else but can't pin a IVT down until almost nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I think we shouldn't give up on the costal just yet, but the IVT should be our main focus atm. As @nj2va pointed out, GGEM is good for IVT. Icon is pretty decent with the IVT snowfall. Not over til we're watching the IVT set up to our North or South in the nowcast thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 27 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: So we dont have the NAM or the GFS on this run. Concerning. Nam has a healthy IVT only north of us. But all other guidance is south. If nam corrects south it wouldn't be too bad. Still could fluke our way to some snow just from the upper level energy and IVT. Lots of time left with a tricky setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 00z UKIE looks nice precip wise... waiting for meteogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Nobody mentioned the EURO? Healthy IVT band but narrow. It also has the second coastal, temps are just iffy but 850s look fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Nobody mentioned the EURO? Healthy IVT band but narrow. It also has the second coastal, temps are just iffy but 850s look fine. Or the 6z NAM? At least we know where the norlun jackpot wont be now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Or the 6z NAM? At least we know where the norlun jackpot wont be now lol. Yeah, the 6z NAM has a lot more moisture...sadly it's mostly rain with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I’ll hug the 6z NAM for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, the 6z NAM has a lot more moisture...sadly it's mostly rain with the coastal Its getting a little late in the game for the coastal. Surface temps suck for that timeframe. It would take some good lift with dynamical cooling to get it to snow, and right now where it does precipitate, mostly east of I-95, rates don't look too impressive. As for the IVT deal, we see the models place that feature in our area quite often a few days out, but it almost inevitably ends up to our north around LI or SNE. I am sure there will be a coating to an inch somewhere in our region, but exactly where and by what mechanism, who knows, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Both the UK and JMA have favorable tracks for the coastal still. Temps are iffy. 850's seem fine while the surface is probably mid 30's. Would think if this track would verify, areas north and west with some elevation could get some small accumulations. Remember the ICON and Euro both get precip into the corridor from the coastal as well. JMA - http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=jma&run=00&stn=TT850&hh=072&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo UK - http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=TT850&hh=072&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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