Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 10:26 PM, Cobalt said: Seems like it would be that way. On the GFS during the precip, 850s say snow, temps at the ground are upper 30s/low 40s. Expand Yea, it's a shame too. The upper level feature that trails is acting like a an offensive tackle keeping the cold air tucked behind it. This type of setup is actually close to a big event. Obviously it's not going to happen but it's close to the types of events that phase and blow up. Just a little out of sync. We've seen a lot of close but out of sync this year. Nina's are cruel like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Just remembered that the GGEM has had a bigger coastal for the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 6:04 PM, cae said: RGEM ensemble supports the 1-3" idea. I approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 10:29 PM, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's a shame too. The upper level feature that trails is acting like a an offensive tackle keeping the cold air tucked behind it. This type of setup is actually close to a big event. Obviously it's not going to happen but it's close to the types of events that phase and blow up. Just a little out of sync. We've seen a lot of close but out of sync this year. Nina's are cruel like that. Expand Question is, if it did fall as the GFS depicted, would it reach the ground as frozen precip, or would it all come down to the rate of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Be sure to click on the link Wes gave and to read the article in full. The Post tracks how many eyeballs read each article and whether each article is read in full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 6:04 PM, cae said: RGEM ensemble supports the 1-3" idea. Expand What is the key... inches or MM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 11:36 PM, Interstate said: What is the key... inches or MM? Expand It says at the top snow qpf in mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Interesting. Would think eastern shore changeover is because of rates and north and west changeover is from enough cold air mixing down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 11:45 PM, MD Snow said: Interesting. Would think eastern shore changeover is because of rates and north and west changeover is from enough cold air mixing down.... Expand I'd love to buy what its selling but I can't help but feel like I remember the RGEM always overdoing cold. Wonder if the high-res keeps that bias or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 10:26 PM, Cobalt said: Seems like it would be that way. On the GFS during the precip, 850s say snow, temps at the ground are upper 30s/low 40s. Expand Upper levels are cold enough, so it would take some moderate to heavy precip to dynamically cool the warmer lower levels. If you look at the 12k NAM it has temps about 36 with rain flipping to snow over eastern MD and DE around 21z and then falling to 34 over the next hour. If it does occur, it probably would not accumulate much unless it came down heavily due to the marginal temps (and soggy ground...defo no drought here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 11:48 PM, NorthArlington101 said: I'd love to buy what its selling but I can't help but feel like I remember the RGEM always overdoing cold. Wonder if the high-res keeps that bias or not. Expand Nam showed a similar solution for the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 11:53 PM, MD Snow said: Nam showed a similar solution for the eastern shore. Expand And GFS hinted at it but mostly for eastern DE into NJ. Something to watch for on the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 11:55 PM, C.A.P.E. said: And GFS hinted at it but mostly for eastern DE into NJ. Something to watch for on the 0z runs. Expand HRDPS actually changes everyone over around the cities in the next 2 panels. HRRR and RAP time for me. Let’s see if we can get something out of this. All I want is to see flakes from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 11:34 PM, Cobalt said: Question is, if it did fall as the GFS depicted, would it reach the ground as frozen precip, or would it all come down to the rate of precip? Expand It's close but a challenge to overcome the boundary layer. If temps were 35 or lower it would make it a lot more interesting. If the precip shield ends up being bigger so it precipitates longer I could see a mix or complete changeover happening. Could become discussion worthy if 0z ups the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 11:57 PM, MD Snow said: HRDPS actually changes everyone over around the cities in the next 2 panels. Expand Its interesting. Who knows, we still may get an inch or 2 of snow but not exactly the way we thought. Mount Holly has rain/snow with 1/2" or less of accum for tomorrow evening here (coastal), then up to an inch on Tuesday. All subject to change by the looks of recent model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 11:57 PM, Bob Chill said: It's close but a challenge to overcome the boundary layer. If temps were 35 or lower it would make it a lot more interesting. If the precip shield ends up being bigger so it precipitates longer I could see a mix or complete changeover happening. Could become discussion worthy if 0z ups the ante. Expand Thanks for the response Bob. Would be funny if the costal becomes our primary deliverer of snow for this event. Who knows. This winter has been full of surprises, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 12:04 AM, WeathermanB said: Not really gonna go past 96hr, but decent cold look w/flatter trough and not as deep of a trough so no Panhandle snow this time around... average temps for Mid-Atlantic region. Expand Dude.. wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 12:01 AM, Cobalt said: Thanks for the response Bob. Would be funny if the costal becomes our primary deliverer of snow for this event. Who knows. This winter has been full of surprises, that's for sure. Expand Take a look at this. Rates are decent but surface is 39 degrees. Freezing line is up around 950mb or close to 2,000'. That's a long way for a snowflake to fall through above freezing temps. Drop surface to 35 degrees and I'd bet that subfreezing would be just off the deck. Under 1,000' up. That would work. If 0z has good precip again I'll pull a few soundings and see how close it is. The sounding below isn't very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 12:05 AM, Cobalt said: Dude.. wrong thread Expand Crap!! Sorry about that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 12:06 AM, Bob Chill said: Take a look at this. Rates are decent but surface is 39 degrees. Freezing line is up around 950mb or close to 2,000'. That's a long way for a snowflake to fall through above freezing temps. Drop surface to 35 degrees and I'd bet that subfreezing would be just off the deck. Under 1,000' up. That would work. If 0z has good precip again I'll pull a few soundings and see how close it is. The sounding below isn't very close. Expand Yeah, hrdps has temps around 36-37 falling to 34-35 during the changeover in dc/balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/28/2018 at 10:45 PM, mappy said: I approve Expand I'm going to pretend you're referring to my map-making skills and not the jackpot over your house. On 1/28/2018 at 11:48 PM, NorthArlington101 said: I'd love to buy what its selling but I can't help but feel like I remember the RGEM always overdoing cold. Wonder if the high-res keeps that bias or not. Expand From the benchmark information I've seen, the high-res should have less of a cold bias and less of a wet bias than the regular RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 And as quick as the Nam's brought the idea of a bigger coastal...they take it away... 12k takes away our ivt/ull on tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Lol. The nam took everything away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 2:15 AM, MD Snow said: And as quick as the Nam's brought the idea of a bigger coastal...they take it away... Expand Just saw that. As PSU suggested earlier today that is better for us to get some backside love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 2:20 AM, pasnownut said: Just saw that. As PSU suggested earlier today that is better for us to get some backside love. Expand Yeah that worked out real well with the NAM's. Weaker coastal and no precip from the ivt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 2:21 AM, MD Snow said: Yeah that worked out real well with the NAM's. Weaker coastal and no precip from the ivt. Expand Still loading for me but yeah so far it appears that the precip has lifted north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 2:21 AM, MD Snow said: Yeah that worked out real well with the NAM's. Weaker coastal and no precip from the ivt. Expand It shifted it north (like the euro did at 12z). The coastal is stronger then earlier runs but not west enough to impact us but I wonder if that change is pulling the IVT north. It's also back to a more IVT look then the last couple runs that looked like a nice vort pass induced convective band. Either way I sensed a disturbance in the force with the sudden shifts with the 18z runs and am not shocked if this takes a wrong turn. I don't like it when simple becomes complicated at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 2:32 AM, psuhoffman said: It shifted it north (like the euro did at 12z). The coastal is stronger then earlier runs but not west enough to impact us but I wonder if that change is pulling the IVT north. It's also back to a more IVT look then the last couple runs that looked like a nice vort pass induced convective band. Either way I sensed a disturbance in the force with the sudden shifts with the 18z runs and am not shocked if this takes a wrong turn. I don't like it when simple becomes complicated at the last minute. Expand What coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 still a narrow band of showers turning to a burst of snow in the NAM nest, but it's really short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 On 1/29/2018 at 2:33 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: What coastal? Expand This coastal... just because it's not affecting us doesn't mean it's not there. 24 hours ago most guidance didn't have anything there. Not even southeast New England was getting hit. That's a pretty big shift. And that change can definitely impact other things like our IVT and vort. In this case perhaps it's pulling it north along with the stronger coastal system. On 1/29/2018 at 2:34 AM, high risk said: still a narrow band of showers turning to a burst of snow in the NAM nest, but it's really short-lived. Expand We do still get the quick line but it doesn't start to stall and train southeast until past us so instead of 3-6 hours of snow it's one hour. Very disappointing. As I said above I wonder how the stronger coastal system is impacting us here. My gut says it's part of the problem and why the sudden shift simultaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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