jgf Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Copied below is today's WPC Tropical Discussion (which is not the same as the Tropical Weather Discussion issued by the NHC..).., and as you can see it is dominated by discussion of a "pre-frontal shear line". I know what "shear" is - i studied mechanics in graduate school - and I have this definition from the AMS: "Shear Line: In meteorology, a line or narrow zone across which there is an abrupt change in the horizontal wind component parallel to this line; a line of maximum horizontal wind shear." and also this from Wikepedia: "Stationary fronts will either dissipate after several days or devolve into shear lines, but can change into a cold or warm front if conditions aloft change causing a driving of one air mass or the other. Stationary fronts are marked on weather maps with alternating red half-circles and blue spikes pointing in opposite directions, indicating no significant movement. When stationary fronts become smaller in scale, degenerating to a narrow zone where wind direction changes over a short distance, they become known as shear lines.[29] If the shear line becomes active with thunderstorms, it may support formation of a tropical storm or a regeneration of the feature back into a stationary front. A shear line is depicted as a line of red dots and dashes.[13]" This shear line is not depicted on any surface analysis or surface forecast that I have seen. They seem to have a pretty good handle on where it is, and where it will be in the future... i have attached a surface analysis below the discussion.., So, I have a few questions: what data or observations, or model results, are they using to determine the existence of a shear line? would it be expressed in surface winds.., or winds higher up.., or both? How can i see it myself? FXCA20 KWBC 261149PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKSNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD648 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2018PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN 26/06UTC: BUILDING POLAR RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN USA ISDRIVING A POLAR FRONT ACROSS BERMUDA-THE BAHAMAS EARLY THISMORNING. THIS TRIGGERED A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE THAT IS SURGINGACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDSACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WITH SHIP REPORTS NEAR THE TURKS ANDCAICOS SHOWING WINDS OF 25-30KT. THIS IS ENHANCING LOW LEVELMOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHEAR LINE...WITH SATELLITE DERIVEDPWAT ANALYSIS SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA.HOWEVER...PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED TRADE WINDSCAP CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THISFEATURE. AHEAD OF THE SHEAR LINE...A FRESH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ANDA PWAT MINIMA ENVELOP THE FORECAST AREA.THE SURFACE FRONT IS TO SAG JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLYON SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE TRAILING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THEFLORIDA PENINSULA. BOUNDARY IS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHEARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO FRONTOLIZE. THEPREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHWESTPUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...PULLING ACROSS SAN JUAN BY 18-21 UTCTODAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30KT WIND SURGE...COLDADVECTION AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN. THE SHEAR LINEENTERING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WILL COINCIDE WITH PERIOD OF MAXHEATING...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS THIS FEATURE CROSSESTHE ISLAND. THE SHEAR LINE IS THEN FORECAST TO MEANDER BETWEEN THEVIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOVINGFARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER IN THE DAY. AS IT PULLSAWAY AND RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC THE LOW/MID LEVELWINDS ARE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONGBOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...TO CONTINUEFAVORING A COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN AND GENERATION OF TRADE WINDSHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES INTO PUERTO RICO.UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WIND SURGE/SHEAR LINE CONVERGENCE ANDASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN...EXPECTING A MORE SEASONALPATTERN OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGINISLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FURTHERMORE... THE STRONGEREASTERLY TRADES ARE TO ALSO FAVOR GENERATION OF STREAMERS THAT ARETO CONVERGE ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OFPUERTO RICO. THESE WILL COMBINE WITH PERSISTENT COOL ADVECTIVEPATTERN AND MEANDERING SHEAR LINE TO LIKELY FAVOR MODERATE TOHEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES AND EASTERN PUERTORICO/SAN JUAN METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUTTHE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST ACTIVE CLUSTERING ACROSSTHE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OVERSIERRA DE LUQUILLO/EL YUNQUE.DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA) $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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