Isotherm Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 At the very end of the EPS, we see the first legitimate indication of a -NAO initiation of the winter to date. I think the prospect of an interesting Feb 20th-Mar 10th period look good right now, given coupled AAM/MJO and stratospheric alterations (even if the NAM isn't in the tank). The tropospheric vortex has essentially vaporized by the end of the EPS, reflective of the decimated stratospheric vortex. The initial positioning will be poor mid month (TPV), but eventually, I think it'll simply become overwhelmed by the higher geopotential heights propagating southwestward, and we do achieve a legitimate -NAO for the last week of Feb into March. The ewd propagating MJO will operate adjunctively as well in engendering this response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 29 minutes ago, snywx said: Our sub forum prob has a snowfall average range of 25-60". A good snow season is all relative to location. Always gonna be atleast one shafted location a year Exactly. And why Years like 95/96 are so special. Unfortunately even you will be to far south for the next week. The border of great vs meh is all the way up in central Ny. This is time for the Adirondacks and greens to cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. And why Years like 95/96 are so special. Unfortunately even you will be to far south for the next week. The border of great vs meh is all the way up in central Ny. This is time for the Adirondacks and greens to cash in Looks to be a good week up there, hopefully we have chances the following week along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 51 minutes ago, snywx said: Our sub forum prob has a snowfall average range of 25-60". A good snow season is all relative to location. Always gonna be atleast one shafted location a year Relative indeed. My BIL in southeastern ME wouldn't even blink at 60 inches. And he isn't in the snowiest part of ME by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. And why Years like 95/96 are so special. Unfortunately even you will be to far south for the next week. The border of great vs meh is all the way up in central Ny. This is time for the Adirondacks and greens to cash in Disagree. I think even the LHV gets into the action at least twice in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. And why Years like 95/96 are so special. Unfortunately even you will be to far south for the next week. The border of great vs meh is all the way up in central Ny. This is time for the Adirondacks and greens to cash in I think the mid week event has big time potential up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, snywx said: I think the mid week event has big time potential up here. Yeah I didn’t think that through, I was more referring to tomorrow. Wednesday could be solid up there. But you will teetering on the edge of very very good. Almost like your on Long Island in some other events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 All the ensembles are awful, both 500mb geopotential heights and 850mb T's, except for GEFS, which is slightly better at the end of run. I do not know how you get around this fact. Even the CPC has dropped the BN now and has gone neutral. Do not forget the means are on the way up now too, say 1deg/12days, till end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Nice write up by Earthlight and crew. https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/03/sudden-stratospheric-warming-increasingly-likely-mean/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 4 hours ago, Snowshack said: Looks to be a good week up there, hopefully we have chances the following week along the coast. I think the coast will have a chance with the SWFE next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 46 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I think the coast will have a chance with the SWFE next week all depends on the track of the low - will be more cold air to work with if it stays off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 25° w/ flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Overnight models are disgutig for the east coast moving forward Rainstorms after rainstorms So far this hasn't been a good winter at all except for a fluke storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Ensembles were atrocious last night, EPS would be a downright torch by mid February. This month has dud written all over it, we may have a shot (last snow perhaps) first week of March if the MJO progression and SSW event play out as Isotherm described. However everyone who predicted a cold & snowy February could get torched horribly. Right now it feels like winter ended once the 2 week record cold period broke, how very 1989/90-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 35degs., or 2degs AN. Both GFS/CMC look identical for the next 10 days in that they both waste 2"+ as mostly Rain. Three events and three temperature pops on each coincide with the precipitation arrivals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ensembles were atrocious last night, EPS would be a downright torch by mid February. This month has dud written all over it, we may have a shot (last snow perhaps) first week of March if the MJO progression and SSW event play out as Isotherm described. However everyone who predicted a cold & snowy February could get torched horribly. Right now it feels like winter ended once the 2 week record cold period broke, how very 1989/90-ish. Joe Besardi did that again yesterday in his public video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ensembles were atrocious last night, EPS would be a downright torch by mid February. This month has dud written all over it, we may have a shot (last snow perhaps) first week of March if the MJO progression and SSW event play out as Isotherm described. However everyone who predicted a cold & snowy February could get torched horribly. Right now it feels like winter ended once the 2 week record cold period broke, how very 1989/90-ish. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Latest GFS >>> 06Z is worse still, now wastes 3.3" (Next 10 days) of liquid as All Rain. Temp. heads for 60 by 2/11-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Ensembles were atrocious last night, EPS would be a downright torch by mid February. This month has dud written all over it, we may have a shot (last snow perhaps) first week of March if the MJO progression and SSW event play out as Isotherm described. However everyone who predicted a cold & snowy February could get torched horribly. Right now it feels like winter ended once the 2 week record cold period broke, how very 1989/90-ish. Amazing how fast the latest trends eviscerated the tight consensus among many pro's regarding the "rocking February" they foresaw. Might be a case of "delayed, but not denied." I wouldn't be surprised if we see some true spring-like weather for a bit over the next few weeks, followed by a parting swipe by Old Man Winter in late Feb/early March. Wild see-sawing seems to be the name of the game over the past few years. I see no reason why that would change now. Mark my words though: NAO will tank in April and spoil our spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Amazing how fast the latest trends eviscerated the tight consensus among many pro's regarding the "rocking February" they foresaw. Might be a case of "delayed, but not denied." I wouldn't be surprised if we see some true spring-like weather for a bit over the next few weeks, followed by a parting swipe by Old Man Winter in late Feb/early March. Wild see-sawing seems to be the name of the game over the past few years. I see no reason why that would change now. Mark my words though: NAO will tank in April and spoil our spring. One of the main challenges with long range forecasting is that the MJO can't be forecast with accuracy beyond the short or medium term. You can see how this record MJO 6 pulse snuck up on all the models in the short term and they have been correcting warmer ever since. The NAO which has been positive all winter, with the exception of a brief drop before the blizzard,trended more positive going forward. So we will have to wait until after 2/20 to see some improvements in the pattern when the MJO is expected to finally head into 8 after a long trip trip through 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Milder air has moved back into the region ahead of another seasonably cold to somewhat colder than normal air mass. In the extended range, the EPS and GEFS are converging on a milder solution for mid-month. In recent days, the EPS has shown less expansive warmth while the GEFS has moved toward more expansive warmth. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/3 30.3° (2.7° below normal) 2/5 31.4°-32.6° (2/3 estimate: 31.2°-33.6°) 2/10 31.3°-34.9° (2/2 estimate: 32.8°-37.0°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 48% (2/3 estimate: 47%) The 2/2 MJO had an amplitude of 3.508. That easily surpassed the previous daily record figure of 2.893 from 1985. The most recent year to see a negative SOI value and MJO Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on February 2 was 1993. The mean temperature for NYC for the second half of February wound up nearly 1.8° below that of the first half. However, in that case, the MJO reached Phase 8 on 2/11 as its amplitude rapidly fell, then reversed course going back to Phase 7 on 2/13 and all the way back to Phase 3 on 2/17. Afterward, the MJO spent most of the rest of February in Phases 4 and 5. Much of the second half of February had low amplitude MJO values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: I agree If you are getting the same vibe, then it's time for me to start re-spooling the fishing reels. Sounds like we may be done. It has been brutally cold a lot this year and can't say I'm sorry to see that go, but to lose it to soupy rains isn't so appealing either. Sometimes March pulls a surprise or two like in 92 and 93, and early 2015 ( which may have been my biggest that year at 10 inches I think ) so we will see. Probably safe to conclude this won't be an epic winter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Epic? Let’s shoot for normal at this point. NYC needs another 7 or 10 inches (depending on location) to get to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Stratospheric vortex splits tend to preferentially induce much more rapid transitions to wintry weather in Europe, while conversely, displacement events tend to be less auspicious for Europe, and better for the United States. Initially, the southwestward propagation of the daughter vortex will be counterproductive as it acts to suppress the poleward reach of the NPAC ridge, yielding a fairly zonal flow across the US for several days. However, once the warming event occurs, it will feedback and quite literally aid in reinvigorating the MJO pulse into phase 8 as we reach the Feb 16th-18th time frame. That will further aid in shuffling the rossby wave train and subsequently eliciting a legitimate -NAO by about Feb 20th-22nd in my opinion. Concurrently, GWO/AAM alterations will occur as MT/FT decreases and forcing continues circulating. So, my thinking is that Europe's probably into winter by circa February 14th, we're probably waiting until the last week of the month for the real step-down into wintry weather. It will come, but I think this month is probably going to look like what happened w/ a lot of prior SSW in the books -- namely, that the SSW month actually features warmer temp departures than the month prior (January). These are very early thoughts - though it would be congruous with most of the analogs in my outlook - March could be the much colder month relative to normal. After we reset the global pattern AAM/GWO wise by late Feb, and a genuine -NAO initiates, in concert with MJO u div signal persistent into p2-3, could mean a potentially cold/active front 10 days of March. To sum up, I still think we begin the transition as we approach the 18th-20th, but I'm most interested in wintry weather further into the last week of Feb and first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 34 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Epic? Let’s shoot for normal at this point. NYC needs another 7 or 10 inches (depending on location) to get to normal. What nyc sites need 10" to normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Not happy with the GFS MJO plot below as well as pna which flipped negative on a dime. I lived through some horrible winters in the early 90s, however one common theme was great Marches like 91, 92 and 93. Just a hunch but wouldn't be surprised if March was a good month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Does anyone have the EPS MJO plot? Does it look as bad as the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Does anyone have the EPS MJO plot? Does it look as bad as the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Thanks. Much more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Much more promising. I don't have anything to back this up at the moment, but from what I understand that "loop" that you see on the GEFS is a model bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.