February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 35degs., or 2deg. AN.

16.8degs. right now.

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of a cold front that brought light snow to parts of the region yesterday morning, the afternoon saw temperatures locked in the middle 20s despite plenty of sunshine. A strong northwest wind produced wind chill readings in the middle teens.

This morning was the 20th reading below 20° this winter in New York City. The last winter with at least 20 such days was winter 2014-15 when there were 34. In addition, the high temperature could hold below 32° today. If so, that would be the 19th such subfreezing maximum temperature this winter, the most since winter 2014-15 when there were 21.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/2 33.8° (0.8° above normal)
2/5 31.2°-33.6° (2/2 estimate: 31.0°-34.6°)
2/10 32.8°-37.0° (2/2 estimate: 29.7°-35.0°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 47% (2/2 estimate: 51%)

On February 1, the MJO moved into Phase 7 with an amplitude of 3.828. That smashed the previous daily record amplitude of 2.816, which was set in 1985.

Finally, the SOI was -29.25 today. That’s the SOI’s lowest figure since June 23, 2017 when the SOI had a value of -29.31. This strongly negative value may be providing further indication that the ongoing La Niña event will weaken in coming weeks.

[gravitylover]

Made it down to ~3* here this morning. Brrr

[EastonSN+]

Teleconnections took a turn for the worse overnight. AO looms to be predominantly positive for the foreseeable future, and less members get the MJO into phase 8. After a great start to the winter would be somewhat astounding if we do not reach average snowfall for the region being so close. Still time left (all of March).

 

[EastonSN+]

MJO

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Despite the colder temperatures this year, looks like we will have close to or a little less than amount of snow by February 10th as last year.

 

Snowfall by 2-10-17  vs 2-10-18

NYC

2018....18.9"...so far

2017....20.5"

EWR

2018....17.8"...so far

2017...20.5"

LGA

2018...16.7"...so far

2017...23.1"

ISP

2018...28.0"...so far

2017...31.5"

BDR

2018...20.1"...so far

2017...27.3"

 

There is a good chance we will finish below normal; there have been merely two major events locally for me this year, and neither was anything special ( the "bomb" left us with 4-8 locally, a little more than the Dec event, long forgotten ) and there have been only dusting to an inch events since. The pattern has not been a snowy one, people are going back and forth over models, and Feb is short. It would not be unlikely we don't see much more given the lack of storminess this season. Of course, I hope that isn't the case....

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Teleconnections took a turn for the worse overnight. AO looms to be predominantly positive for the foreseeable future, and less members get the MJO into phase 8. After a great start to the winter would be somewhat astounding if we do not reach average snowfall for the region being so close. Still time left (all of March).

 

My hope is that something unexpected pops up and over performs. Would be a shame to go al Feb with nothing much.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

My hope is that something unexpected pops up and over performs. Would be a shame to go al Feb with nothing much.

There has been talk of a pv split. 

If I am not mistaken the blizzard of 1888 was at the end of a warm winter. Was even warm right before the storm. NOT saying anything that massive can happen again, but fluke events occur especially in March in La Ninas. Time is still in our sides, but Feb is not looking spectacular.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is the potential that  the mid to later part of February can deliver on another warning level snow event for the area. The latest Euro has an improved MJO forecast going more into phase 8 than recent runs.

 

 

Big difference between GEFS and EPS.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 hours ago, The Plowsman said:

12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Strong winds right now with solid CAA. I just had a steady gust in wantagh that lasted a solid minute and was over 30mph.
amazingly the wantagh mesonet is so close to my house it recorded the gust!!!!
the tree in my backyard (silver maple) is about 80’ tall and really roars in good winds

Silver maples have shallow root systems

Well this one is less then a mile from the Bay and has survived countless hurricanes and nor’easters. It’s 16’ in circumference and as far as I can tell the unofficial NY state champion. Unlike most trees it actually gets wider further up. It was planted when the house was built in 1932 on a potato farm. The ideal environment for a tree that is native to alluvial river valleys. 

The tree is climbed and pruned thoroughly every few years. That’s the key to handling strong wind events like Sandy. Amazingly it didn’t event loose a branch.

 

 

[CIK62]

We will be lucky to see any snow over the next 16 days, with just 5BN days, including today, scattered about.

Relying on MJO forecasts 15 days out is risky.    GEFS has 0 probability of being in Phase 8, and EPS is at 60%, so let us call it 30%.

Want to aggravate yourself more, try to determine which ensemble looks the worse for the next 2 weeks.   I would go   GEPS, EPS, GEFS.

Well it is definitely not a runaway period coming up:

Also the CFS loves the last 10 days of the month for SNOW.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

21 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

There is a good chance we will finish below normal; there have been merely two major events locally for me this year, and neither was anything special ( the "bomb" left us with 4-8 locally, a little more than the Dec event, long forgotten ) and there have been only dusting to an inch events since. The pattern has not been a snowy one, people are going back and forth over models, and Feb is short. It would not be unlikely we don't see much more given the lack of storminess this season. Of course, I hope that isn't the case....

Good chance? Another example of why you can’t generalize. A good ammount of Long Island is already above average. Even on western Long Island I’m at 26.7” on an average of 28”. It would take a spectacularly bad finish to not make it to average. Something that not even 97/98 could pull off. That is, make it through the whole second half of snow climo without any accumulation. 

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Big difference between GEFS and EPS.

 

So far it's 3-2 that the MJO continues into phase 8.

Continuation into MJO 8...Euro...CFS...JMA......Stuck in 7....GFS...CMC

 

 

[dmillz25]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

So far it's 3-2 that the MJO continues into phase 8.

Continuation into MJO 8...Euro...CFS...JMA......Stuck in 7....GFS...CMC

 

 

Convection doesn’t just get stuck though. It either moves or breaks down that’s why I think the GFS is wrong there.

[Eduardo]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

So far it's 3-2 that the MJO continues into phase 8.

Continuation into MJO 8...Euro...CFS...JMA......Stuck in 7....GFS...CMC

 

 

Chris, do we know which models have performed best regarding the MJO so far this winter?

Amazing how my short-term memory evades me, but weren't there a few model burps in mid/late December showing a torch for precisely the same period when we tundra'd?  I have to go back and look....

[bluewave]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Convection doesn’t just get stuck though. It either moves or breaks down that’s why I think the GFS is wrong there.

I do also. You can remember the GFS got suck in 7 in late December while the Euro correctly got the propagation into 8. It took the GFS a while to correct but it eventually came to the Euro idea.

[dmillz25]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I do also. You can remember the GFS got suck in 7 in late December while the Euro correctly got the propagation into 8. It took the GFS a while to correct but it eventually came to the Euro idea.

From what I’ve been seeing the mjo will weaken but will still be strong enough to change the pattern to a colder one once in phase 8

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Chris, do we know which models have performed best regarding the MJO so far this winter?

Amazing how my short-term memory evades me, but weren't there a few model burps in mid/late December showing a torch for precisely the same period when we tundra'd?  I have to go back and look....

The GFS has the edge with forecasts when initialized in MJO 4-5 like we just saw this week. But the Euro is better overall.

 

Ichikawa and Inatsu (2017) confirm the suspicions about the ECMWF in the MC. While better than the GFS overall, the GFS is better in phases 4-5 w/ MJO. ECMWF & JMA too slow just about everywhere pic.twitter.com/8kU9YAtvxW

2:16 PM - 29 Jan 2018

[EasternLI]

Just to add to the gfs vs euro MJO discussion a bit. Here is a snippet from some previous research on the matter.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD020833/full

Quote

Results show that (1) both models have good initial conditions and 1–2 day forecasts and (2) the ECMWF has significantly better skill than the GFS in terms of forecasting equatorial convection, synoptic systems, and the large-scale MJO circulation at 5–15 day lead times.

 

[Eduardo]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS has the edge with forecasts when initialized in MJO 4-5 like we just saw this week. But the Euro is better overall.

 

Ichikawa and Inatsu (2017) confirm the suspicions about the ECMWF in the MC. While better than the GFS overall, the GFS is better in phases 4-5 w/ MJO. ECMWF & JMA too slow just about everywhere pic.twitter.com/8kU9YAtvxW

2:16 PM - 29 Jan 2018

 

Just now, EasternLI said:

Just to add to the gfs vs euro MJO discussion a bit. Here is a snippet from some previous research on the matter.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD020833/full

 

Love this board!  Thanks gentlemen!

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

 

Love this board!  Thanks gentlemen!

No problem. It would match the theme of the pattern swinging back and forth with plenty of volatility since late August.

[Drz1111]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

We will be lucky to see any snow over the next 16 days, with just 5BN days, including today, scattered about.

Relying on MJO forecasts 15 days out is risky.    GEFS has 0 probability of being in Phase 8, and EPS is at 60%, so let us call it 30%.

Want to aggravate yourself more, try to determine which ensemble looks the worse for the next 2 weeks.   I would go   GEPS, EPS, GEFS.

Well it is definitely not a runaway period coming up:

Also the CFS loves the last 10 days of the month for SNOW.

Very bad post.  You do NOT need below normal conditions in first two weeks of Feb for snow!  This is the climatological peak of snow season.  It is especially not necessary in a pattern with lots of WAA driven events that often start snow to mix.

 

Its not a great pattern for megastorms or perisistent snow cover on the coast. It would be surprising to see no accumulating snow.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Good chance? Another example of why you can’t generalize. A good ammount of Long Island is already above average. Even on western Long Island I’m at 26.7” on an average of 28”. It would take a spectacularly bad finish to not make it to average. Something that not even 97/98 could pull off. That is, make it through the whole second half of snow climo without any accumulation. 

Well this just illustrates the differences in this forum regionally....I have said before LI is about as far from me a Baltimore, yet they are in a different forum. 97/98 was virtually snowless here, with may be a dusting in March.

[CIK62]

13 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Very bad post.  You do NOT need below normal conditions in first two weeks of Feb for snow!  This is the climatological peak of snow season.  It is especially not necessary in a pattern with lots of WAA driven events that often start snow to mix.

 

Its not a great pattern for megastorms or perisistent snow cover on the coast. It would be surprising to see no accumulating snow.

Yes, but with no snow cover to start with, boundary layer better be colder than we are going to be.   The two spots of below 5400m THK, we already know are coastal failures.   5350m THK and -6C 850mb surface temp., should suffice.    Not happening till much later.

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of a cold front that brought light snow to parts of the region yesterday morning, the afternoon saw temperatures locked in the middle 20s despite plenty of sunshine. A strong northwest wind produced wind chill readings in the middle teens.

This morning was the 20th reading below 20° this winter in New York City. The last winter with at least 20 such days was winter 2014-15 when there were 34. In addition, the high temperature could hold below 32° today. If so, that would be the 19th such subfreezing maximum temperature this winter, the most since winter 2014-15 when there were 21.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/2 33.8° (0.8° above normal)
2/5 31.2°-33.6° (2/2 estimate: 31.0°-34.6°)
2/10 32.8°-37.0° (2/2 estimate: 29.7°-35.0°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 47% (2/2 estimate: 51%)

On February 1, the MJO moved into Phase 7 with an amplitude of 3.828. That smashed the previous daily record amplitude of 2.816, which was set in 1985.

Finally, the SOI was -29.25 today. That’s the SOI’s lowest figure since June 23, 2017 when the SOI had a value of -29.31. This strongly negative value may be providing further indication that the ongoing La Niña event will weaken in coming weeks.

The weakening Nina could make March more interesting, I believe it has proven to be better than February during Nina years. However that's not something anyone should bet on, March is very hit and miss (usually misses).

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, Drz1111 said:

Very bad post.  You do NOT need below normal conditions in first two weeks of Feb for snow!  This is the climatological peak of snow season.  It is especially not necessary in a pattern with lots of WAA driven events that often start snow to mix.

 

Its not a great pattern for megastorms or perisistent snow cover on the coast. It would be surprising to see no accumulating snow.

I've posted this before but it obviously didn't register with everyone.

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Drz1111 said:

Very bad post.  You do NOT need below normal conditions in first two weeks of Feb for snow!  This is the climatological peak of snow season.  It is especially not necessary in a pattern with lots of WAA driven events that often start snow to mix.

 

Its not a great pattern for megastorms or perisistent snow cover on the coast. It would be surprising to see no accumulating snow.

I guess you could get brief snow to rain or rain to snow, but cutter systems won’t ever deliver much here, and SWFE systems are for I-90, not here. The pattern now and for the next 10 days supports those type systems, typical Nina pattern that favors the Midwest and New England. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The weakening Nina could make March more interesting, I believe it has proven to be better than February during Nina years. However that's not something anyone should bet on, March is very hit and miss (usually misses).

March ninas are sometimes good for the coast, better for inland areas.

[snywx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I guess you could get brief snow to rain or rain to snow, but cutter systems won’t ever deliver much here, and SWFE systems are for I-90, not here. The pattern now and for the next 10 days supports those type systems, typical Nina pattern that favors the Midwest and New England. 

SWFE are our best friends in the interior. If we went an entire year without a "benchmark " storm most up here would be content. 

[snywx]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Well this just illustrates the differences in this forum regionally....I have said before LI is about as far from me a Baltimore, yet they are in a different forum. 97/98 was virtually snowless here, with may be a dusting in March.

Our sub forum prob has a snowfall average range of 25-60". A good snow season is all relative to location. Always gonna be atleast one shafted location a year