CIK62 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 32degs., or 1deg. BN. Used 42deg. down to 20deg. for today. Both the GFS/CMC have 3" of rain in the next 10 days, but just 4"-6" of snow. With temps. BN overall, this is just a bad TeleConnection/MJO setups. Any one see any hope here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 They have been very bad, busted, flipped etc. But the Euro flipped on it's ensembles last night and continued today. Not a good look if one was counting on a good FEB. Ahem.....Think I had previously posted Febs "impending doom" cold/snow wouldn't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Ahead of a strong cold front, February got off to a warmer than normal start in the East. As colder air poured into the region, the rain turned to snow in parts of the area. By sunset, the temperature will be in the 20s and headed for the teens. There is a possibility that tomorrow’s high temperature could stay below freezing in New York City. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/1 38.5° (5.5° above normal) 2/5 31.0°-34.6° (2/1 estimate: 30.2°-35.0°) 2/10 29.7°-35.0° (2/1 estimate: 30.2°-35.6°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 51% (2/1 estimate: 50%) The weekly EPS guidance has dramatically shifted to a warmer outlook through the remainder of the month beginning near mid-month. The weeklies paint a picture similar to the warm and cold temperature anomalies from February 15-20, 1981 (except that the small cool pocket in the Desert Southwest is much warmer than normal on the weeklies). The February 15-20, 1981 temperature anomalies are posted below. This distribution of warm anomalies not the temperature anomalies is what I'm using to show what the latest EPS weeklies are forecasting. The magnitude of the change from the prior run suggests that a larger degree of uncertainty than usual might exist, especially as big developments are taking place over the Pacific. For example, a week ago the SOI stood at 18.47. Its current value is -18.68. Next week’s guidance could be crucial in providing insight into this shift. Considering that the Day 10-15 outlook on the GEFS differs quite markedly from that of the EPS, a lot of caution remains warranted. For now, I’m leaving my overall thinking on February unchanged as I wait for additional evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 hours ago, Rjay said: Thank god I didnt end up goimg super cold in the temp contest. The weeklies look flat out ugly. Our numbers for NYC are very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Ahead of a strong cold front, February got off to a warmer than normal start in the East. As colder air poured into the region, the rain turned to snow in parts of the area. By sunset, the temperature will be in the 20s and headed for the teens. There is a possibility that tomorrow’s high temperature could stay below freezing in New York City. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/1 38.5° (5.5° above normal) 2/5 31.0°-34.6° (2/1 estimate: 30.2°-35.0°) 2/10 29.7°-35.0° (2/1 estimate: 30.2°-35.6°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 51% (2/1 estimate: 50%) The weekly EPS guidance has dramatically shifted to a warmer outlook through the remainder of the month beginning near mid-month. The weeklies paint a picture similar to the warm and cold temperature anomalies from February 15-20, 1981 (except that the small cool pocket in the Desert Southwest is much warmer than normal on the weeklies). The February 15-20, 1981 temperature anomalies are posted below. This distribution of warm anomalies not the temperature anomalies is what I'm using to show what the latest EPS weeklies are forecasting. The magnitude of the change from the prior run suggests that a larger degree of uncertainty than usual might exist, especially as big developments are taking place over the Pacific. For example, a week ago the SOI stood at 18.47. Its current value is -18.68. Next week’s guidance could be crucial in providing insight into this shift. Considering that the Day 10-15 outlook on the GEFS differs quite markedly from that of the EPS, a lot of caution remains warranted. For now, I’m leaving my overall thinking on February unchanged as I wait for additional evidence. ..going to be very interesting to see how this goes..glad to see you are not throwing in the towel just yet..but what once looked like a promising feb. is looking a little(?) shakey right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: Well, I got 29.5" in Metuchen last winter, so unlikely you'd have been below normal 3-4 miles to my NE. Didn't realize we had that much.....nothing stands out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 hours ago, The Plowsman said: 9 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: They have been very bad, busted, flipped etc. But the Euro flipped on it's ensembles last night and continued today. Not a good look if one was counting on a good FEB. Ahem..... Think I had previously posted Febs "impending doom" cold/snow wouldn't verify Good for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 9 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: They have been very bad, busted, flipped etc. But the Euro flipped on it's ensembles last night and continued today. Not a good look if one was counting on a good FEB. Ahem..... What a complete forecast fail then, I knew a snowy La Nina February sounded too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, tim said: ..going to be very interesting to see how this goes..glad to see you are not throwing in the towel just yet..but what once looked like a promising feb. is looking a little(?) shakey right now. It will. Interestingly enough, the Canadian ensembles' monthly forecast has shifted from a warm idea to a near normal idea for the region. Within a week, I suspect that we'll have a much firmer idea about February's evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Continue with these small to moderate precip events...haven't had a 1" or greater system since Oct 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Looks like the main concern for the period after the 10th is that the record MJO amplitude will rev the PAC Jet up too much. Models are starting to show a WPAC jet extension next week. This would tend to produce more of a zonal Pacific flow into NOAM than was indicated by earlier model forecasts for the mid-February period. Certainly something to watch as models continue to struggle with the effects of this record breaking MJO event. 200 KT jet extension over WPAC next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Looks like the AO is forecasted to go a little more positive than predicted yesterday in the short and medium turn. The new mjo plot finally has some members reaching phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the main concern for the period after the 10th is that the record MJO amplitude will rev the PAC Jet up too much. Models are starting to show a WPAC jet extension next week. This would tend to produce more of a zonal Pacific flow into NOAM than was indicated by earlier model forecasts for the mid-February period. Certainly something to watch as models continue to struggle with the effects of this record breaking MJO event. 200 KT jet extension over WPAC next week With respect to the record amplitude MJO, here are the figures for the last 5 days. January 27: 3.027 (old record: 2.922, 1976) January 28: 3.414 (old record: 2.843, 1976) January 29: 3.743 (old record: 2.859, 1976) January 30: 3.900 (old record: 2.769, 1976) January 31: 3.897 (old record: 2.614, 1976) The preliminary January 29-31 figures surpass the all-time January record of 3.598, which was established on January 8, 1986. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: With respect to the record amplitude MJO, here are the figures for the last 5 days. January 27: 3.027 (old record: 2.922, 1976) January 28: 3.414 (old record: 2.843, 1976) January 29: 3.743 (old record: 2.859, 1976) January 30: 3.900 (old record: 2.769, 1976) January 31: 3.897 (old record: 2.614, 1976) The preliminary January 29-31 figures surpass the all-time January record of 3.598, which was established on January 8, 1986. It has been one heck of a wild MJO ride since the extreme event in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 7 hours ago, RU848789 said: Well, I got 29.5" in Metuchen last winter, so unlikely you'd have been below normal 3-4 miles to my NE. He may have been below as i was about 5" below average last year. I'm not too far from Metuchen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: What a complete forecast fail then, I knew a snowy La Nina February sounded too good to be true. Please don't call a fail for about 26 more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 31 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Please don't call a fail for about 26 more days. I'm hoping the record MJO amplitude and the chaotic nature of Nina is what's causing these rapid changes and that they'll trend more favorably again. Mid month is still our best shot at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm hoping the record MJO amplitude and the chaotic nature of Nina is what's causing these rapid changes and that they'll trend more favorably again. Mid month is still our best shot at snow. Got it. So, modelology not meteorology. Got it. I got 3" early this morning, am forecasted for 4+ on Sunday/Sunday night and will very likely get snow at least once next week. C'mon up and play in the snow if you want, we'll have some for you and we're less than an hour from where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 FWIW, the 2/2 12z EPS is not quite as warm over the CONUS as the 2/2 0z run was in the extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: FWIW, the 2/2 12z EPS is not quite as warm over the CONUS as the 2/2 0z run was in the extended range. I predict seasonable temperature moving forward with Feb ending very close to average. Sounds reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: What a complete forecast fail then, I knew a snowy La Nina February sounded too good to be true. Hang in there , complete turn around on the EPS at 12z day 10 - 15 . Not cold, but completely fixable to cold. Don was right , it's swinging more than usual so it doesn't have a good handle here. Those 2 runs that ended winter have just reversed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: FWIW, the 2/2 12z EPS is not quite as warm over the CONUS as the 2/2 0z run was in the extended range. I wish I could post the last 4 runs of the EPS at 500 for FEB 12 Drastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: I predict seasonable temperature moving forward with Feb ending very close to average. Sounds reasonable? The EPS went from a frigid month to a torched month back to a fairly common break that leads back to a pretty cold look inside 48 hours. You're guess today looks good , tomorrow it could look bad. The ensembles shifted more than it's usual error bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Well it is absolutely frigid out right now, windy and cold. Serious cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 ^^ 12* here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The GEFS is swinging pretty good also. It looks like the models are still adjusting the the record MJO pulse. Longer range guidance skill should be lower than normal until they figure out how this all shakes out. New run Old run One good thing I see in that new run is the bulk of the cold air is on our side of the planet. At least it's closer to us than not. Now we just need to stick a block or two in the way and bottle it up at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, gravitylover said: One good thing I see in that new run is the bulk of the cold air is on our side of the planet. At least it's closer to us than not. Now we just need to stick a block or two in the way and bottle it up at the right time. It may be a bit of a chaotic pattern mid-February with the ridge trying to build out West and the PAC Jet trying to knock it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Strong winds right now with solid CAA. I just had a steady gust in wantagh that lasted a solid minute and was over 30mph. amazingly the wantagh mesonet is so close to my house it recorded the gust!!!! the tree in my backyard (silver maple) is about 80’ tall and really roars in good winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Strong winds right now with solid CAA. I just had a steady gust in wantagh that lasted a solid minute and was over 30mph. amazingly the wantagh mesonet is so close to my house it recorded the gust!!!! the tree in my backyard (silver maple) is about 80’ tall and really roars in good windsSilver maples have shallow root systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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