February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

In terms of temperature reversals from cold to warm, this winter may be the most dramatic since 89-90. While this December was nowhere as cold as Dec 89, we did have the 2nd coldest 12/26-1/8 before shifting warmer. That winter saw the warm up at the end of December. Luckily, we had the blizzard this year with other smaller events to do much better with snow than 89-90 did.

[nzucker]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In terms of temperature reversals from cold to warm, this winter may be the most dramatic since 89-90. While this December was nowhere as cold as Dec 89, we did have the 2nd coldest 12/26-1/8 before shifting warmer. That winter saw the warm up at the end of December. Luckily, we had the blizzard this year with other smaller events to do much better with snow than 89-90 did.

We may have had the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone and a fairly active December, but the winter has been brutal since then. The reversal from epic cold and a 950mb blizzard to warmth and rain could not have been more dramatic.

That's the problem in today's climate: whatever cold periods we get are easily overpowered by the incredible warmth, which included an 80F day in the middle of February. 

[WeatherFeen2000]

30 minutes ago, nzucker said:

We may have had the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone and a fairly active December, but the winter has been brutal since then. The reversal from epic cold and a 950mb blizzard to warmth and rain could not have been more dramatic.

That's the problem in today's climate: whatever cold periods we get are easily overpowered by the incredible warmth, which included an 80F day in the middle of February. 

It has not been brutal what you talking about. I got 28 inches for the season. Normal here is around 33 inches of snow. I think we should get at least there. It has not been that bad, also we had the historic cold and plenty of snows. Winter of 2011-12 was terrible. But who wants cold and dry. We had some cold shots and average snows. Better than most cold and dry winters followed by cutters no thanks

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, nzucker said:

We may have had the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone and a fairly active December, but the winter has been brutal since then. The reversal from epic cold and a 950mb blizzard to warmth and rain could not have been more dramatic.

That's the problem in today's climate: whatever cold periods we get are easily overpowered by the incredible warmth, which included an 80F day in the middle of February. 

Much more of a spring in Denver vibe recently with major snowstorms and warmth coexisting.

[SnoSki14]

It was a 2 week winter with everything else feeling like early Spring.

This month felt like textbook April with the rain and mild temps, January post 1/7 felt like March. 

I'm done with this Nina, the only interesting things they bring is hurricanes.

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Much more of a spring in Denver vibe recently with major snowstorms and warmth coexisting.

we were very luck to get 8-12 inches just NW of NYC last weekend, it feels like ages ago but it was a perfect times thread the needle event with the cold air arriving less than 24 hours before the storm.  We have done very well in SWFE the past couple of years.  While these storms often lack snow totals above a foot, they have been consistent in the fast flow.  Now that we finally get a -NAO, all the cold has moved into Europe due to the SSWE.  Our best snow teleconnection remains the -EPO since you need cold before any snow.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

we were very luck to get 8-12 inches just NW of NYC last weekend, it feels like ages ago but it was a perfect times thread the needle event with the cold air arriving less than 24 hours before the storm.  We have done very well in SWFE the past couple of years.  While these storms often lack snow totals above a foot, they have been consistent in the fast flow.  Now that we finally get a -NAO, all the cold has moved into Europe due to the SSWE.  Our best snow teleconnection remains the -EPO since you need cold before any snow.

The only winters since 2000 that didn't make it to at least normal snowfall here were 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12. Thankfully, raging +EPO patterns like that have been a rarity since 2000.

[the_other_guy]

Things are changing rapidly before our eyes. The weather is getting too warm, too quickly. Last weeks storm was a miracle. If that’s what it takes to get snow (and the occurence of record warm months seems to be increasing at an alarming rate) we are truly in trouble with regards to snow totals.

I am starting to believe (following 2010 warm trends thus far) that my son will see RDU-type weather in NYC for most of his adult life.

From the middle of January onward, there have been little to no sustained winter temperatures. That sustained warmth is much more alarming than near 80 in February. Feb usually has had an odd ball spring-like weekend. Now it is a spring like month with an odd ball 3 day winter stretch. 

 

Looking forward to March, do you have medium to high confidence in NYC getting below freezing again? I don’t. That is very, very alarming. Much more alarming than 78 degrees on one day.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

It has not been brutal what you talking about. I got 28 inches for the season. Normal here is around 33 inches of snow. I think we should get at least there. It has not been that bad, also we had the historic cold and plenty of snows. Winter of 2011-12 was terrible. But who wants cold and dry. We had some cold shots and average snows. Better than most cold and dry winters followed by cutters no thanks

I’m sad to say it really was a crap winter. The majority of my snow fell in the 14” of 1/4. I was much more optimisitic heading into febraury but that didn’t work out. Sorry but 3” of slush for the entire month of feb is a fail. Essentially loosing the second half of January and febraury is brutal. We haven’t seen a single arctic high move into the northeast since then. 

The current weather isn’t exactly cheery. Day after day of clouds and rain. If this were the type of winter weather I liked I would move to the coastal Pacific Northwest. 

Oh and the trends for both coming events look blah. 

Sorry for the Debby downer post today 

[SnoSki14]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only winters since 2000 that didn't make it to at least normal snowfall here were 01-02, 06-07, 07-08, and 11-12. Thankfully, raging +EPO patterns like that have been a rarity since 2000.

Yet you can easily how we may soon get shut out completely for winter. I think a snowless winter is not that far away. 

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

It has not been brutal what you talking about. I got 28 inches for the season. Normal here is around 33 inches of snow. I think we should get at least there. It has not been that bad, also we had the historic cold and plenty of snows. Winter of 2011-12 was terrible. But who wants cold and dry. We had some cold shots and average snows. Better than most cold and dry winters followed by cutters no thanks

Yes, we have had near normal snowfall...I have 25.5" here, which is right where I should be heading into March.

However, almost all of our snow and cold were in the period from Mid-November through early January. Since 1/9, we've had record warmth. NYC reached 60F 5 times in February, including an all-time record high of 78F. Only 12 days have had minima below freezing, the last time we got to 32F was on February 17th. And I don't see any sub-freezing nights looking at the extended...maybe one next weekend after that storm passes us. In terms of snow, I've only had 7" or so since the Bomb Cyclone.

Really a tale of two winters here. 

[doncat]

Looks dry for last couple days of month so will finish Feb here with 6.67" of precip which is a station record...Will see if this Feb beats last Feb for warmest, it will be close.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, doncat said:

Looks dry for last couple days of month so will finish Feb here with 6.67" of precip which is a station record...Will see if this Feb beats last Feb for warmest, it will be close.

BDR also wettest Feb with 6 plus...

[CIK62]

Last two days of Feb. averaging 51degs., or +14degs.

Month to date is  +6.5.  Should finish at  +7.0.  Target is +6.7.

The full 8 day period is averaging 46degs., or +8degs.

[donsutherland1]

Milder breezes and readings in the lower 50s brought February 2018 closer to establishing a new monthly record for the warmest February on record. Unless there is a dramatic error in the short-term guidance, 2018’s setting a new monthly record appears almost inevitable. Such a record would mark the third time that a year in the 2010-present period established a February warm temperature mark.

In fact, 2010 or later holds half of the monthly warm temperature records:

February: 41.6°, 2017 (prior to 2010: 40.6°)
April: 57.9°, 2010 (prior to 2010: 56.9°)
September: 74.5°, 2015 (prior to 2010: 73.5°)
October: 64.1°, 2017 (prior to 2010: 63.6°)
November: 52.8°, 2015 (prior to 2010: 52.7°)
December: 50.8°, 2015 (prior to 2010: 44.1°)

The period beginning in 2010 also holds the 2nd or 3rd warmest marks in four months:

March: 2nd warmest: 50.9°, 2012 (record: 51.1°)
May: 2nd warmest: 68.5°, 2015 (record: 68.7°)
July: 2nd warmest: 81.3°, 2010 (record: 81.4°)
August: 3rd warmest: 79.2°, 2016 (record: 80.3°)

All said, the period beginning in 2010 holds the first or second warmest spots in 9 of the 12 months and first, second, or third spots in 10 of the 12 months.

Even as the period starting in 2010 represents about 6% of the New York City climate record, it accounts for 50% of the monthly warm temperature records and holds nearly 16% of the 10 warmest spots in the 12 months.

Finally, 9 of the 13 months that accounted for the 10 warmest February monthly averages on record also went on to register among the 10 warmest monthly averages in at least one subsequent month. 1991 (record warm May) and 1999 (record warm July) achieved that standing twice. Given the overrepresentation of the 2010-present period among the 10 warmest figures for each month and the historic experience following exceptionally warm Februaries, it would not be surprising to see 2018 also achieve top 10 status in terms of monthly warmth in a subsequent month.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/26 41.5° (6.5° above normal)
2/28 41.8°-42.2° (2/26 estimate: 41.8°-42.2°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 26, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature remains ahead of those of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-26 Average Temperature:

2012: 40.5° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 41.1° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 41.5°

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (2/26 estimate: >99.9%). The probability of a record warm February is approximately 81% (2/26 estimate: 76%)

[SnoSki14]

Have we ever seen a monthly record get set and then beat a year later like Feb 17/18?

[doncat]

Well did manage to drop below freezing here this am to 30°...What a crappy month.

[donsutherland1]

At 12:00, the temperature was 51° at Central Park. That brings the February average to 41.6°, tying the record warm monthly average set just last year.

[donsutherland1]

At 3 pm, the temperature was 55°  in Central Park. That reading pushed the monthly average to 41.7°, which surpasses the February warm temperature record of 41.6° set just last year. This is also the 4th time since 2000 that the February mean temperature was 40° or higher. Prior to 1954, there were no such cases in New York City's climate record, which extends back to 1869.

[Paragon]

On 2/26/2018 at 8:51 AM, nzucker said:

We may have had the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone and a fairly active December, but the winter has been brutal since then. The reversal from epic cold and a 950mb blizzard to warmth and rain could not have been more dramatic.

That's the problem in today's climate: whatever cold periods we get are easily overpowered by the incredible warmth, which included an 80F day in the middle of February. 

I never thought I'd live to see the day that we'd see an 80 F high in February and now I'm saying 50/50 we live to see an 80 F high in January in our lifetime.  I also think we'll see a 110 F record high in July in our lifetime.

[Paragon]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 3 pm, the temperature was 55°  in Central Park. That reading pushed the monthly average to 41.7°, which surpasses the February warm temperature record of 41.6° set just last year. This is also the 4th time since 2000 that the February mean temperature was 40° or higher. Prior to 1954, there were no such cases in New York City's climate record, which extends back to 1869.

Back to back monthly record temp averages in consecutive years- has that happened at NYC before?

[Paragon]

On 2/26/2018 at 10:12 AM, jfklganyc said:

Things are changing rapidly before our eyes. The weather is getting too warm, too quickly. Last weeks storm was a miracle. If that’s what it takes to get snow (and the occurence of record warm months seems to be increasing at an alarming rate) we are truly in trouble with regards to snow totals.

I am starting to believe (following 2010 warm trends thus far) that my son will see RDU-type weather in NYC for most of his adult life.

From the middle of January onward, there have been little to no sustained winter temperatures. That sustained warmth is much more alarming than near 80 in February. Feb usually has had an odd ball spring-like weekend. Now it is a spring like month with an odd ball 3 day winter stretch. 

 

Looking forward to March, do you have medium to high confidence in NYC getting below freezing again? I don’t. That is very, very alarming. Much more alarming than 78 degrees on one day.

I said we're headed towards Norfolk, VA type winters so we're pretty close.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, Paragon said:

Back to back monthly record temp averages in consecutive years- has that happened at NYC before?

Not anytime close to this point in the climate record.

[tmagan]

On 2/26/2018 at 8:51 AM, nzucker said:

We may have had the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone and a fairly active December, but the winter has been brutal since then. The reversal from epic cold and a 950mb blizzard to warmth and rain could not have been more dramatic.

That's the problem in today's climate: whatever cold periods we get are easily overpowered by the incredible warmth, which included an 80F day in the middle of February. 

Happened around December 30th in the winter of 1989 - 1990, which is pretty similar to this winter without the snow.

[CIK62]

Last day of Feb. looks to be +12degs.  

Month to date is  +6.6.  We should make a new record of  +6.8, by the skin of our teeth.   Target is  +6.7.  Seems I have been high all along, or the GFSx is high in general.

The whole 8 days averaging 46degs., or +8degs.

We are headed for at least 18 straight AN days at this rate.  Tampa Bay is ending Feb. with no BN days.

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine and temperatures that rose into the middle 50s across the region, Central Park’s monthly average temperature moved past the record high February average set just last year. With another day of warmer than normal temperatures ahead, 2018 will likely extend the margin by which the monthly average temperature surpassed the 2017 record figure.

Despite the record warm February, March looks to be only somewhat warmer than normal to warmer than normal across the region. A February 2018-magnitude warm anomaly appears to be very unlikely. Severe early month blocking should blunt the magnitude of warmth. However, the prevalent 500 mb pattern during the height of this blocking is not typical with the upper air patterns that tended to produce cold monthly outcomes from such blocking events.

The progression of the February monthly record high temperature in New York City is as follows:

34.5°, 1869
37.0°, 1877
37.2°, 1880
37.9°, 1890
38.6°, 1949
40.1°, 1954
40.6°, 1984
40.9°, 2012
41.6°, 2017
41.8°-42.1°, 2018

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/27 41.7° (6.6° above normal)
2/28 41.8°-42.1° (2/27 estimate: 41.8°-42.2°)

Through February 27, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature had risen above the record that was set in 2017.

2/1-27 Average Temperature:

2012: 40.8° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 41.2° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 41.7°

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (2/27 estimate: >99.9%). The probability of a record warm February is approximately 99.8% (2/27 estimate: 81%)

[bluewave]

With the forecast highs around 60 today, Newark has a chance to tie the record set just last year and in 1976.

Most days of 60 or greater from January 10th to the end of February:

9...2017...1976

8...2018...so far

7...1990

6...2016...2006...2002...1951

5..2012...2011...1997...1991...1949

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, Paragon said:

I said we're headed towards Norfolk, VA type winters so we're pretty close.

I'm sure the general public will be happy to hear that. 

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm sure the general public will be happy to hear that. 

The general public actually enjoys these milder winters here. Most people outside this board that I talk with like the idea of more time outdoors and lower heating bills. That's why so many head south for the winter.

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The general public actually enjoys these milder winters here. Most people outside this board that I talk with like the idea of more time outdoors and lower heating bills. That's why so many head south for the winter.

My Dec/Jan heating bill cycle was awfull-triple what it was in Feb....