February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With the large block I agree, whatever storm that forms will be very slow moving and build up a large surge on easterly winds. There’s also the threat for flooding rain. Snow may be harder to come by with the deep easterly flow, the hills inland have much better odds at that. There’s also still the possibility it gets suppressed because of confluence. 

I think a place like mt. Pocono is the place to be as it stands right now. That 2k elevation is going to be everything. The last thing I want is a damaging coastal flooding and flooding rain event. But playing meteorology this pattern screams exactly that. Well see but the time of year says watch out for a slower moving March 10.   

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know that a high impact coastal storm is on the way when we get a 500+ meter Greenland block and a record February surge of warmth to the North Pole. All during the highest March astronomical tides with a full moon.

Wow... truly a remarkable event ongoing right now in the #Arctic. Current temperatures well above previous years in February (>80°N latitude)! Average temperature is the bright blue line (sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-t…).pic.twitter.com/BuseG4hQPE

 

Wow.. thanks for posting

[Rtd208]

Getting some decent rain so far this morning, moderate to heavy rain falling. 

0.33" of rain so far today.

Temp 42

[CIK62]

Last 4 days of Feb. averaging 48degs., or 11degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.4.  Should finish at  +7.1.         Target is  6.7.

The whole 8 days is about 10degs. AN.

 

[bluewave]

NYC is n the process of pulling ahead of last year for the warmest February on record. Just a remarkable increase in February warmth since the 90's.

#1.....41.6...2017

#2.....41.2...2018

#3.....40.9...2012

#4.....40.6...2002...1998...1984

#5.....40.1...1954

#6.....40.0...1997

#7....39.9...1991...1976

#8....39.7...1990

#9....39.3...1981

#10..38.8...1999

[donsutherland1]

With a high temperature of 55° yesterday prior to the arrival of another period of rain, New York City moved closer to establishing a new record for February warmth for what would be the second consecutive year.

February warmth notwithstanding, there remains the potential for parts of the region to experience more wintry conditions Thursday or Friday as a secondary storm develops and moves off the East Coast somewhere between the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey coast. The farther south track would bring increased prospects for at least some accumulating snow across northern New Jersey, New York City and Long Island. A farther north track would push the risk into the northern Hudson Valley, northwestern Connecticut, and northward. The track will depend, in large part, on the development of blocking. Right now, it appears more likely than not that the blocking will develop a little too late for that blocking to have a downstream impact that pushes the storm’s track sufficiently far to the south to produce a widespread moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York Metro Area. Instead, the farther north track appears more likely. Total precipitation could reach or exceed 1” in a large part of the region.

Either scenario will likely produce strong winds in coastal sections. Coastal flooding is also possible, especially at times of high tide.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/24 41.2° (6.4° above normal)
2/28 41.9°-42.5° (2/24 estimate: 41.9°-43.0°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 24, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature remains ahead of those of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-24 Average Temperature:

2012: 40.7° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 40.6° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 41.2°

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (2/24 estimate: 90%). The probability of a record warm February has increased to approximately 76% (2/24 estimate: 68%).

[Rtd208]

Up to 0.80" of rain so far today.

Current temp 42

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC is n the process of pulling ahead of last year for the warmest February on record. Just a remarkable increase in February warmth since the 90's.

#1.....41.6...2017

#2.....41.2...2018

#3.....40.9...2012

#4.....40.6...2002...1998...1984

#5.....40.1...1954

#6.....40.0...1997

#7....39.9...1991...1976

#8....39.7...1990

#9....39.3...1981

#10..38.8...1999

That's crazy, setting a new monthly record just a year later. And we're doing it with such ease too. 

Also likely to have one of the wettest February's on record.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's crazy, setting a new monthly record just a year later. And we're doing it with such ease too. 

Also likely to have one of the wettest February's on record.

Longer term, February is the fastest warming winter month for NYC. There has been a bookend winter warming trend with January showing the smallest increase.

NYC winter warming trend since 1895:

Dec...+3.7  F/century

Jan...+1.0  F/ century

Feb...+5.0  F/ century

[donsutherland1]

The long-forecast development of severe blocking has now commenced. The preliminary value of the AO dropped from +0.269 on 2/24 to -0.765 today. The NAO dropped from +0.805 to +0.363. The AO is forecast to bottom out between -5.000 and -4.000. The NAO is forecast to bottom out between -2.000 and -1.500.

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The long-forecast development of severe blocking has now commenced. The preliminary value of the AO dropped from +0.269 on 2/24 to -0.765 today. The NAO dropped from +0.805 to +0.363. The AO is forecast to bottom out between -5.000 and -4.000. The NAO is forecast to bottom out between -2.000 and -1.500.

Despite this the airmass will very much remain Pacific driven as the severe blocking sent the PV into Europe instead of under the block

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Longer term, February is the fastest warming winter month for NYC. There has been a bookend winter warming trend with January showing the smallest increase.

NYC winter warming trend since 1895:

Dec...+3.7  F/century

Jan...+1.0  F/ century

Feb...+5.0  F/ century

Just sickening to see that.

Yet February's average snowfall in NYC for the 1991-2018 period is now 10.8 inches and when the next 30 year averages are calculated in Jan 2021 February's average will be above 10 inches for the first time ever. It's already 10.1 inches if the next two Februaries had no snow. I always ask the same question when does the warming stop the increase in average snowfall especially on the Northeast coast?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With a high temperature of 55° yesterday prior to the arrival of another period of rain, New York City moved closer to establishing a new record for February warmth for what would be the second consecutive year.

February warmth notwithstanding, there remains the potential for parts of the region to experience more wintry conditions Thursday or Friday as a secondary storm develops and moves off the East Coast somewhere between the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey coast. The farther south track would bring increased prospects for at least some accumulating snow across northern New Jersey, New York City and Long Island. A farther north track would push the risk into the northern Hudson Valley, northwestern Connecticut, and northward. The track will depend, in large part, on the development of blocking. Right now, it appears more likely than not that the blocking will develop a little too late for that blocking to have a downstream impact that pushes the storm’s track sufficiently far to the south to produce a widespread moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York Metro Area. Instead, the farther north track appears more likely. Total precipitation could reach or exceed 1” in a large part of the region.

Either scenario will likely produce strong winds in coastal sections. Coastal flooding is also possible, especially at times of high tide.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/24 41.2° (6.4° above normal)
2/28 41.9°-42.5° (2/24 estimate: 41.9°-43.0°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 24, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature remains ahead of those of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-24 Average Temperature:

2012: 40.7° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 40.6° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 41.2°

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (2/24 estimate: 90%). The probability of a record warm February has increased to approximately 76% (2/24 estimate: 68%).

The Pacific, and EPO/AO indexes are highly correlated to NYC temperatures. This year we are doing it with a negative EPO and AO although the Aleutian ridge has been one of the strongest. I think that this means the potential is there to go 2-3 degrees warmer, perhaps higher, in the right conditions (For EPO, AO, I am talking about 500mb area correlations more so than CPC index)

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Just sickening to see that.

Yet February's average snowfall in NYC for the 1991-2018 period is now 10.8 inches and when the next 30 year averages are calculated in Jan 2021 February's average will be above 10 inches for the first time ever. It's already 10.1 inches if the next two Februaries had no snow. I always ask the same question when does the warming stop the increase in average snowfall especially on the Northeast coast?

At least we know that we can still get 40 inch+ snowfall winters even with a 40 degree DJF average temp. The warming has come with some truly epic snowstorms.

[snowman19]

53 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Despite this the airmass will very much remain Pacific driven as the severe blocking sent the PV into Europe instead of under the block

There in lies a problem. All we are getting through the 2nd week of March is maritime and continental polar air, not arctic. There will be no arctic air anywhere near us, that all went to Europe and Russia. Even the storm for the 3/7-8 period is going to have to dynamically cool from aloft and “make” its own cold, assuming the wave spacing is favorable and it actually hits and doesn’t get suppressed

[donsutherland1]

49 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Despite this the airmass will very much remain Pacific driven as the severe blocking sent the PV into Europe instead of under the block

Yes. That’s consistent with polar vortex splitting events.

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The Pacific, and EPO/AO indexes are highly correlated to NYC temperatures. This year we are doing it with a negative EPO and AO although the Aleutian ridge has been one of the strongest. I think that this means the potential is there to go 2-3 degrees warmer, perhaps higher, in the right conditions (For EPO, AO, I am talking about 500mb area correlations more so than CPC index)

That’s true. This time around, the warm SSTs around eastern North America likely contributed to greater warmth than would otherwise have been the case. They likely helped fuel January’s “bomb cyclone.”

[EasternLI]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There in lies a problem. All we are getting through the 2nd week of March is maritime and continental polar air, not arctic. There will be no arctic air anywhere near us, that all went to Europe and Russia. Even the storm for the 3/7-8 period is going to have to dynamically cool and “make” its own cold, assuming the wave spacing is favorable and it actually hits and doesn’t get suppressed

Ok, but did anyone in here say an arctic blast was to be expected? Big storm speculation due to the block, sure. Arctic outbreak, not so much.

[weatherpruf]

50 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Just sickening to see that.

Yet February's average snowfall in NYC for the 1991-2018 period is now 10.8 inches and when the next 30 year averages are calculated in Jan 2021 February's average will be above 10 inches for the first time ever. It's already 10.1 inches if the next two Februaries had no snow. I always ask the same question when does the warming stop the increase in average snowfall especially on the Northeast coast?

No one knows, but it's a good bet that at some point snowstorms are going to be less frequent and significant ones might even be absent some winters. We've seen that in other years so the same deniers will be out there saying it doesn't mean anything. I agree it is sickening to see the kind of temps in winter we have been seeing more and more. 80 degrees would have been unthinkable when I was a kid. Even for most of my adult life.

[qg_omega]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That’s consistent with polar vortex splitting events.

Not true it's possible to move into the northern plains with PV splitting events, unfortunately this one is not going to work out for us

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not true it's possible to move into the northern plains with PV splitting events, unfortunately this one is not going to work out for us

Most impact Eurasia. There are exceptions.

[doncat]

Another rainy day...1.15" so far...6.61" for the month, station Feb record.

[Rtd208]

Have picked up 0.97" of rain so far today.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, doncat said:

Another rainy day...1.15" so far...6.61" for the month, station Feb record.

We can add the heavy rain this month to the list of extremes. February is typically the driest month of the year for NYC.

 

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can add the heavy rain this month to the list of extremes. February is typically the driest month of the year for NYC.

 

19 out of 25 days at BDR have had measureable precip this month....mostly rain.    After today's action, BDR has set  record for wettest Feb ever.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can add the heavy rain this month to the list of extremes. February is typically the driest month of the year for NYC.

 

Normally there would be periods of dry cold Canadian high pressure. That has been completely lacking this month.

[Rtd208]

Final rainfall total for the day is 0.97"

[CIK62]

Remainder of Feb. averaging 49degs., or 12degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.3.  Should end at  +6.9.  Target is +6.7.  The whole 8 days is averaging 46degs., or 9degs. AN.

 

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday’s rainfall brought the monthly precipitation total to 5.83” in New York City. That makes February 2018 the wettest February since 2010 when 6.69” precipitation fell. In addition, even as the temperature remained locked in a narrow zone ranging from a low of 40° and a high of 44°, the month remained on track to become the warmest February on record.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/25 41.2° (6.3° above normal)
2/28 41.8°-42.2° (2/25 estimate: 41.9°-42.5°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 25, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature remains ahead of those of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-25 Average Temperature:

2012: 40.6° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 41.1° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 41.2°

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: >99.9% (2/25 estimate: >99.9%). The probability of a record warm February is approximately 76% (2/25 estimate: 76%).

[JerseyWx]

15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Normally there would be periods of dry cold Canadian high pressure. That has been completely lacking this month.

So many days with cold rain.  Really feels more like early Spring.  The lack of clear and crisp days like you alluded to is amazing this month.