February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

Despite yesterday’s wet weather and temperatures that held mainly in the 30s across much of the region, February 2018 remains on track to become the warmest February on record as a rebound in temperatures will occur today and likely last through the remainder of the month.

Such abnormal warmth is likely to give way temperatures that are generally closer to normal during the first 10 days of March. The second half of that period could see some colder than normal days.

The extended range of the EPS is suggesting that a pattern close to those that prevailed during early March 1951, 1952, and 1962 could develop. In such a pattern, the greatest risk for a moderate or significant snowfall would be centered on a region extending from Baltimore to New York City. Such snowfall is not assured, as March 1962 saw a severe cut-off low wind up becoming a “near miss” for the region in terms of snowfall.

The latest CFSv2 suggests that March temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere could be fairly similar to those from a March 1951-March 1952 composite. In such an outcome, the coldest anomalies could be centered over the Plains States, much as has been the case to date this February. The monthly temperature anomaly would run near normal in the East and perhaps somewhat above normal in northern New England.

Both cases saw measurable snowfall in NYC during the March 1-15 period (1.7” in 1951 and 6.4” in 1952). The 1951 and 1952 cases also featured a late-March measurable snow event (March 22, 1951 1.0” and March 19, 1952 1.0”). Such an outcome would not be unreasonable given the tendency for strong blocks that develop in late February-early March to persist sometimes into April.

The forecast teleconnections (AO, NAO, and PNA) bring up 1951, 1952, 1958, 1962, and 1971. March snowfall amounts in those years were: 2.7”, 7.4”, 15.9”, 0.2”, and 1.3” respectively. The 1952 and 1958 cases, with some support from the “near miss” event of 1962 suggest that at least the potential for above average snowfall exists in the region for March. The evolution and retrogression of the severe blocking event that is currently forecast will be critical.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/23 40.9° (6.1° above normal)
2/28 41.9°-42.8° (2/23 estimate: 41.9°-43.0°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 23, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is running ahead of those of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-23 Average Temperature:

2012: 40.7° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 39.6° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 40.9°

Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 90% (2/23 estimate: 89%). The probability of a record warm February has increased to approximately 68% (2/23 estimate: 67%).

[NJwx85]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

A storm that made it to the 950s off the Delmarva isn’t that notable? Just because it relatively missed you doesn’t make it any less of a blizzard where it did hit. It was fast moving but there was 14” here and it was absolutely, 100% a blizzard for most of NYC and coastal sections. For hours where I am it was a whiteout. I’ve been skunked many times when 90% of the forum kept snowing. Last March’s massive interior storm was vast majority rain where I live, but doesn’t make it any less of a storm. 

It was a deep, intense storm, but nevertheless forgettable for me personally. When I think of a storm being labeled a blizzard, I think of 78, 96, Snowicane, Boxing Day and a few others. In other words just because blizzard conditions verify in a certain location, that doesn’t necessarily warrant the storm being labeled as such, unless those conditions are widespread. I don’t even like putting Boxing Day in that group but it did affect a relatively large, but narrow area.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

A ferocious mid latitude cyclone should start to become clear early next week as far as exact Ptypes and locations.

However an intense area of L.P. that we have been looking for during this period should develop next weekend and our weather will range from damage from High tides , high winds , heavy rain and yes heavy snow for some.

The details are going to remain at a distance until the ensembles come into better focus.

After that , there will likely be another area of L.P. developing through the OHV and heading SE.

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

You know that a high impact coastal storm is on the way when we get a 500+ meter Greenland block and a record February surge of warmth to the North Pole. All during the highest March astronomical tides with a full moon.

Wow... truly a remarkable event ongoing right now in the #Arctic. Current temperatures well above previous years in February (>80°N latitude)! Average temperature is the bright blue line (sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-t…).pic.twitter.com/BuseG4hQPE

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know that a high impact coastal storm is on the way when we get a 500+ meter Greenland block and a record February surge of warmth to the North Pole. All during the highest March astronomical tides with a full moon.

Wow... truly a remarkable event ongoing right now in the #Arctic. Current temperatures well above previous years in February (>80°N latitude)! Average temperature is the bright blue line (sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-t…).pic.twitter.com/BuseG4hQPE

 

 

As a result,  we get the coastal bomb , Europe becomes the Arctic.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

It was a deep, intense storm, but nevertheless forgettable for me personally. When I think of a storm being labeled a blizzard, I think of 78, 96, Snowicane, Boxing Day and a few others. In other words just because blizzard conditions verify in a certain location, that doesn’t necessarily warrant the storm being labeled as such, unless those conditions are widespread. I don’t even like putting Boxing Day in that group but it did affect a relatively large, but narrow area.

Boy that's getting a little too picky. Boxing day was 2 feet plus through most of  our forum. I know parts of western NJ got screwed but come on.

Think of what they label blizzards in the midwest, 6-8 inches of snow with high winds that bring near zero visibilities because of the flat landscape and open plains.  If you ever want to be underwhelmed by a blizzard walk through the aftermath of one of those where you see open ground in many places.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

As a result,  we get the coastal bomb , Europe becomes the Arctic.

Our first -4 to -5 AO drop in over 2 years. It should also rank among the lowest readings for the first week of March.

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

Teleconnections are steady with a deep -NAO and AO reflection.

As time goes on the blocking relaxes but continues as negative while the PNA rises to neutral or slightly positive AND the EPO goes negative. If the 1st storm opportunity is suppressed it looks like a more favorable time slot will occur more towards mid month.

I for one would love a blizzard followed by record warmth through spring.

[WeatherFeen2000]

Nobody is talking about the euro run last night! ❄️ 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Nobody is talking about the euro run last night! ❄️ 

Wow. 131 inches in Manhattan.:)

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Nobody is talking about the euro run last night! ❄️ 

The Euro has been swinging dramatically from run to run. A big storm is likely, but the details remain very uncertain.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Boy that's getting a little too picky. Boxing day was 2 feet plus through most of  our forum. I know parts of western NJ got screwed but come on.

Think of what they label blizzards in the midwest, 6-8 inches of snow with high winds that bring near zero visibilities because of the flat landscape and open plains.  If you ever want to be underwhelmed by a blizzard walk through the aftermath of one of those where you see open ground in many places.

Even the Snowicaine was a bit of a letdown in my part of NJ, 8 inches....the previous storm was 11,  the Feb 6 storm as 3, and the Dec storm 10.....nice storms but came up short around here. Feb 6 being the worst, since I was 30 mins from deep snows....last March was just eh, another busted March storm for me, of which there have been many....which is why I never get excited about March snows. For my area it isn't going to be epic, unless something like 1888 happens ( which I don't expect ). A 6-8 inch March storm would be fine if we could get one.

[weatherpruf]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Euro has been swinging dramatically from run to run. A big storm is likely, but the details remain very uncertain.

Well that would be something to get excited over. People here have me worried about suppression and everything else. I'm no expert or even close, but I've come to understand some of the verbiage.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

42 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Even the Snowicaine was a bit of a letdown in my part of NJ, 8 inches....the previous storm was 11,  the Feb 6 storm as 3, and the Dec storm 10.....nice storms but came up short around here. Feb 6 being the worst, since I was 30 mins from deep snows....last March was just eh, another busted March storm for me, of which there have been many....which is why I never get excited about March snows. For my area it isn't going to be epic, unless something like 1888 happens ( which I don't expect ). A 6-8 inch March storm would be fine if we could get one.

It's always location on this forum, we all live and die by it. I received 21 inches from the March 14 storm last year with several hours of 3 inch per hour snows. If it wasn't for the noon to three pm dry slot I would have easily exceeded two feet. I also received 35 inches from the snowicane so I have nothing to complain about with that one. My second best storm of all time.

[donsutherland1]

54 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well that would be something to get excited over. People here have me worried about suppression and everything else. I'm no expert or even close, but I've come to understand some of the verbiage.

It’s still too soon to know where there will be snow, rain, or some combination. QPF could be high.

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's always location on this forum, we all live and die by it. I received 21 inches from the March 14 storm last year with several hours of 3 inch per hour snows. If it wasn't for the noon to three pm dry slot I would have easily exceeded two feet. I also received 35 inches from the snowicane so I have nothing to complain about with that one. My second best storm of all time.

The story of my area in the snowicaine was we were too far south for the big amounts; and we were too far north for the big amounts from the MA storms. Last March we had 6-7 inches of sleet, too far south for the big snows, but far enough north we didn't get entirely shut out.

[NJwx85]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Boy that's getting a little too picky. Boxing day was 2 feet plus through most of  our forum. I know parts of western NJ got screwed but come on.

Think of what they label blizzards in the midwest, 6-8 inches of snow with high winds that bring near zero visibilities because of the flat landscape and open plains.  If you ever want to be underwhelmed by a blizzard walk through the aftermath of one of those where you see open ground in many places.

I said I included Boxing Day, and sorry but the term blizzard is over used.

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The story of my area in the snowicaine was we were too far south for the big amounts; and we were too far north for the big amounts from the MA storms. Last March we had 6-7 inches of sleet, too far south for the big snows, but far enough north we didn't get entirely shut out.

The Snowicane in 2010 was impressive by me for sure. I ended up with 10” of very wet snow, but the first half was rain with all snow just 15 miles away. I commuted into Manhattan that day, and it was a washout at home with a blizzard starting around Forest Hills. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I said I included Boxing Day, and sorry but the term blizzard is over used.

The January storm was a blizzard for millions of people, and very disruptive. The corridor between coastal NJ and Boston contains 10-15 million people. It wasn’t crippling the way Jan 1996 was, but it was definitely a blizzard. My visibility for parts of it was a few hundred feet. 

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Snowicane in 2010 was impressive by me for sure. I ended up with 10” of very wet snow, but the first half was rain with all snow just 15 miles away. I commuted into Manhattan that day, and it was a washout at home with a blizzard starting around Forest Hills. 

I think I had 16" with the "Snowicane". 

[Stormlover74]

53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I said I included Boxing Day, and sorry but the term blizzard is over used.

It's not overused if it meets the criteria. Even if it affects only one or two counties if they experienced true blizzard conditions that meet the definition then its a blizzard. The problem is too many people associate a big snowfall with a blizzard even if there's no wind present. Sort of like how people misuse the term monsoon to describe any ordinary downpour

[snywx]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's always location on this forum, we all live and die by it. I received 21 inches from the March 14 storm last year with several hours of 3 inch per hour snows. If it wasn't for the noon to three pm dry slot I would have easily exceeded two feet. I also received 35 inches from the snowicane so I have nothing to complain about with that one. My second best storm of all time.

The snowicane was truly an amazing event. I believe where you are located in eastern Orange County was ground zero for the tri-state. I had 28" imby but measured 37" at my folks place in highland mills 12 hrs after the event. Many of us received 8-12" 2 days before that event as well. 

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s still too soon to know where there will be snow, rain, or some combination. QPF could be high.

For NYC as of today I would say 50 % chance Combination - 30 % Rain - 20 % Snow - what does everyone else think ? Percentage total has to equal 100

[NJwx85]

14 minutes ago, snywx said:

The snowicane was truly an amazing event. I believe where you are located in eastern Orange County was ground zero for the tri-state. I had 28" imby but measured 37" at my folks place in highland mills 12 hrs after the event. Many of us received 8-12" 2 days before that event as well. 

18” of pure cement with that one IMBY, three times that much 15 miles to my North in Hewitt.

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

For NYC as of today I would say 50 % chance Combination - 30 % Rain - 20 % Snow - what does everyone else think ? Percentage total has to equal 100

Same day forecasts have much greater certainty than 7-8 day ones.

[nzucker]

39 minutes ago, snywx said:

The snowicane was truly an amazing event. I believe where you are located in eastern Orange County was ground zero for the tri-state. I had 28" imby but measured 37" at my folks place in highland mills 12 hrs after the event. Many of us received 8-12" 2 days before that event as well. 

Yes, I had 26" in Dobbs Ferry, the biggest storm I have witnessed there.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The January storm was a blizzard for millions of people, and very disruptive. The corridor between coastal NJ and Boston contains 10-15 million people. It wasn’t crippling the way Jan 1996 was, but it was definitely a blizzard. My visibility for parts of it was a few hundred feet. 

At its peak on the island conditions were as serious as they come in this area. White out and 50mph winds. Had the storm been moving slower it would have had amounts on par with any of the greats. The Boston coastal flooding was greater then 78. Nova Scotia had 100mph winds.

Moving forward the most serious coastal event since sandy is on the table. Obviously we aren’t going to see anything like Sandy’s surge. But coastal erosion due to multiple tide cycles could be serious. 

[bluewave]

Looking like this will be the strongest 500 mb block over Southern Greenland since 12/16/10. That one made it to 600+ meters. Latest EPS is 565 meters.

 

 

[jm1220]

46 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

At its peak on the island conditions were as serious as they come in this area. White out and 50mph winds. Had the storm been moving slower it would have had amounts on par with any of the greats. The Boston coastal flooding was greater then 78. Nova Scotia had 100mph winds.

Moving forward the most serious coastal event since sandy is on the table. Obviously we aren’t going to see anything like Sandy’s surge. But coastal erosion due to multiple tide cycles could be serious. 

With the large block I agree, whatever storm that forms will be very slow moving and build up a large surge on easterly winds. There’s also the threat for flooding rain. Snow may be harder to come by with the deep easterly flow, the hills inland have much better odds at that. There’s also still the possibility it gets suppressed because of confluence. 

[doncat]

Measurable precip now on 17 days this month...should finish with over 6" which would be a record for my station.