snywx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 36° w/ Lgt rain here.. 74° was my high yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Anthony Masiello "Threat gradually increasing for a coastal storm during the first 4 days of March" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The frequency of extreme outcomes (3σ) has been increasing. Yesterday's high temperature in Central Park was 3.6σ above the February 1981-2010 average maximum temperature. 3σ high temperature events had a return time of abut once every 27.0 years prior to 1950. Since 1950, the return time has fallen to once every 23.0 years. Since 1980, it has been about once every 13.0 years. SO yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Anthony Masiello The front end time of blocks, esp after a very warm pattern, normally favor interior and New England. But this storm later next week comes at the peak of the block's retrograde, not necessarily its start. That's what 1962 did as well, as an extreme example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: SO yes? I'm not sure what you're asking about when referencing the term "concerning." If you are asking about whether such extremes reflect, in part, the contribution of ongoing climate change, the scientific evidence suggests that they do (e.g., see p.53 of the publication/p.21 of the .PDF: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_All_Topics.pdf). The combination of a rising mean temperature and increasing variability contributes to an increased frequency of extreme warm temperature events. Looking at New York City's record, the return time for days with high temperatures of 60° or above during February was 47 days during the 1951-1980 period (the "normal" baseline in GISS). During the current 1981-2010 period, the return time has fallen to 27 days. For the most recent 30-year period, it has fallen further to 26 days. If one goes to the more extreme 70° days, the return time during the 1951-1980 period was 851 days. During the 1981-2010 baseline, it has fallen sharply to 404 days (in February). For the most recent 30-year period, it has fallen further to 340 days. Overall, the frequency of very warm days (60° or warmer) in February has increased 82% over the 1951-1980 baseline (most recent 30-year period). The frequency of extremely warm days (70° or warmer) in February has increased 150.6%. Put another way, the frequency of very warm February days has been rising about 1.6% per year. The frequency of extremely warm February days has been increasing at approximately 2.5% per year. It should be noted that NYC has had a mature urban footprint throughout the comparison period. The growing frequency of very warm and extremely warm February days cannot be written off as an artifact of the urban heat island effect. In any case, the climate change forum is a more appropriate place for discussing the impact of climate change. I responded here, as this is where you raised your question and I assumed (possibly incorrectly) that your reference to being "concerned" may relate to a changing climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm not sure what you're asking about when referencing the term "concerning." If you are asking about whether such extremes reflect, in part, the contribution of ongoing climate change, the scientific evidence suggests that they do (e.g., see p.53 of the publication/p.21 of the .PDF: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_All_Topics.pdf). The combination of a rising mean temperature and increasing variability contributes to an increased frequency of extreme warm temperature events. Looking at New York City's record, the return time for days with high temperatures of 60° or above during February was 47 days during the 1951-1980 period (the "normal" baseline in GISS). During the current 1981-2010 period, the return time has fallen to 27 days. For the most recent 30-year period, it has fallen further to 26 days. If one goes to the more extreme 70° days, the return time during the 1951-1980 period was 851 days. During the 1981-2010 baseline, it has fallen sharply to 404 days (in February). For the most recent 30-year period, it has fallen further to 340 days. Overall, the frequency of very warm days (60° or warmer) in February has increased 82% over the 1951-1980 baseline (most recent 30-year period). The frequency of extremely warm days (70° or warmer) in February has increased 150.6%. Put another way, the frequency of very warm February days has been rising about 1.6% per year. The frequency of extremely warm February days has been increasing at approximately 2.5% per year. It should be noted that NYC has had a mature urban footprint throughout the comparison period. The growing frequency of very warm and extremely warm February days cannot be written off as an artifact of the urban heat island effect. In any case, the climate change forum is a more appropriate place for discussing the impact of climate change. I responded here, as this is where you raised your question and I assumed (possibly incorrectly) that your reference to being "concerned" may relate to a changing climate. I would love to see if we're going to have an active severe weather season this year. If Climate Change leads to stronger severe weather, I'm all for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: I would love to see if we're going to have an active severe weather season this year. If Climate Change leads to stronger severe weather, I'm all for it! Be careful what you wish for. This is scary stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 It won't get much attention because we're talking about rain, but the 12z GFS is actually quite a bit wetter than the NAM for the next few days. Quite unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 It's been flipping between rain and sleet most of the morning here. 77F to a wintry mix in 16 hours is definitely worthy of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: It's been flipping between rain and sleet most of the morning here. 77F to a wintry mix in 16 hours is definitely worthy of note. 39 currently here, after a high of 81 yesterday. Feels like I got on a plane from Orlando and landed here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 34 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's been flipping between rain and sleet most of the morning here. 77F to a wintry mix in 16 hours is definitely worthy of note. Kinda like March 2007, went from 79 to 6" of sleet 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: It's been flipping between rain and sleet most of the morning here. 77F to a wintry mix in 16 hours is definitely worthy of note. 34° w/ plain rain here.. disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 We will have to wait for the individual storm details. But this forecast +510 meter block between Greenland and Iceland may be a new record for near the start of March. Too bad the CPC NAO data hasn't updated for a few days since this also may be close to record territory for the date. The extremes just keep coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 80 yesterday at this time, 40 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 hours ago, TriPol said: I would love to see if we're going to have an active severe weather season this year. If Climate Change leads to stronger severe weather, I'm all for it! I am not for increased threat to property and lives that come with more powerful severe thunderstorms and higher frequency of wind damage and tornadoes. Severe weather kills, dude. We all enjoy exciting weather, but please, careful what you wish for. Similarly, as much as I am a weenie and enjoy extreme winter weather, that stuff kills people too and I am going to be careful for wishing that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will have to wait for the individual storm details. But this forecast +510 meter block between Greenland and Iceland may be a new record for near the start of March. Too bad the CPC NAO data hasn't updated for a few days since this also may be close to record territory for the date. The extremes just keep coming. FYI, as per CPC, the data should again be available tomorrow. There was a major computer issue, which has now been resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Kinda like March 2007, went from 79 to 6" of sleet 2 days later That was another March storm that didn't work out for us, but interior and parts of PA did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: I am not for increased threat to property and lives that come with more powerful severe thunderstorms and higher frequency of wind damage and tornadoes. Severe weather kills, dude. We all enjoy exciting weather, but please, careful what you wish for. Similarly, as much as I am a weenie and enjoy extreme winter weather, that stuff kills people too and I am going to be careful for wishing that as well. I agree; ice storms and hurricanes and severe thunderstorms are to be avoided. I don't want to be under them when they're happening. I witnessed a derecho I believe in 98 and it was scary as all get out, there were lots of outages and some people were caught in the bay IIRC. There was a t storm in 87 that resulted in several coastal deaths among boaters and fishermen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Remainder of month averaging 46degs., or 10degs. AN. Month to date is +6.3. Should finish @+7.1, breaking record of +6.6. There will have been 20 days above normal and just 8 below normal. The next 8 days are also averaging 46degs. GFS has just 2 below days upcoming, in the next 16, near Mar. 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Following the historic warmth of February 21, which would have been the equivalent of a 109° reading in July in Central Park based on the standard deviation of the event, yesterday saw the temperature fall gradually through the 40s and into the 30s across the region. Nevertheless, the probability of February 2018 setting a new record for warmest February on record is growing increasingly likely. Looking ahead to the start of March, the 2/23 0z GGEM and ECMWF show a snowstorm for the 3/1-2 period. Both suggest that much of the region could have the potential to receive 6" or more snow. In contrast, both the 0z and 6z GFS show little or no snowfall. Given the forecast pattern, the possibility of such a storm will be above the climatological probability during the first week of March and perhaps first half of March. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/22 41.0° (6.3° above normal) 2/28 41.9°-43.0° (2/22 estimate: 41.5°-42.8°) The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°. Through February 22, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is running ahead of those of the two warmest Februaries on record. 2/1-22 Average Temperature: 2012: 40.2° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record) 2017: 38.9° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record) 2018: 41.0° Per sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 89% (2/22 estimate: 81%). The probability of a record warm February has increased to approximately 67%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 The teleconnections look Beautiful. Deeply negative AO AND NAO. Rising PNA. Falling EPO. MJO going through phases 1 and 2. I want to see some results on the models! Also, hearing about the NAO linking up with the eastern ridge creating a disaster for snow. What does this mean and wouldn't the negative AO squash such an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The teleconnections look Beautiful. Deeply negative AO AND NAO. Rising PNA. Falling EPO. MJO going through phases 1 and 2. I want to see some results on the models! Also, hearing about the NAO linking up with the eastern ridge creating a disaster for snow. What does this mean and wouldn't the negative AO squash such an event? Don't know,but there is discussion in the Philly and MA forums indicating that this big March some were expecting may not happen due to this ridge. Others here will have to explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Don't know,but there is discussion in the Philly and MA forums indicating that this big March some were expecting may not happen due to this ridge. Others here will have to explain. Agreed. Plus seeing some of the models being somewhat blah is concerning. I wonder if this is the fau NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The teleconnections look Beautiful. Deeply negative AO AND NAO. Rising PNA. Falling EPO. MJO going through phases 1 and 2. I want to see some results on the models! Also, hearing about the NAO linking up with the eastern ridge creating a disaster for snow. What does this mean and wouldn't the negative AO squash such an event? Eps are all over for next weekend in regards to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Pattern good for SE. Tampa Bay temps. have been off charts meanwhile. New all time high for Feb. of 89 set Tues. Five records in a row. No below normal day this month, and only 24 in the last 90 days. Feb. is +9.0 so far. But this should end soon. We keep coming out on the northern edge of the predicted cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 GEFS and EPS are now indicating our first -4 or lower AO drop since January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: GEFS and EPS are now indicating our first -4 or lower AO drop since January 2016. Chris, these are literally off the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 32 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Chris, these are literally off the charts Bear with me but some of us / me still don't understand AO and NAO could one of you guys please explain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Colder than normal temps; possibly a suppressed storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: The teleconnections look Beautiful. Deeply negative AO AND NAO. Rising PNA. Falling EPO. MJO going through phases 1 and 2. I want to see some results on the models! Also, hearing about the NAO linking up with the eastern ridge creating a disaster for snow. What does this mean and wouldn't the negative AO squash such an event? Legitimate question here, didn’t February look promising as well? Many of the top posters in this forum were sold on a cold and snowy month. What is different about the pattern now vs mid to late January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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