Isotherm Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or +12degs. Month to date is +4.8. Target is +6.7. Month should end at a record +6.9. Just making it with an extra positive surplus of 6 degrees to spare. We will see if the next 8 days go as shown today. With the above Feb. finish, the Winter would end at +1.0., making the correct call last Nov.---Near Normal with a Positive Bias. LR Ensembles are not showing March as BN. CFS or the EURO . Thanks for these daily updates. This winter is about as volatile as one can get - from record cold in early January to record warmth now. But overall, the warmth will have won out, and it will be remembered as a fairly classic Nina progression: cold/snowy first half, warm/essentially snowless second half. March isn't included for meteorological winter temperatures, but March will be snowier than February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Looks like a wet weekend is in store. 2-3" of rain on most of the guidance, 00z Euro was a bit less. The interior seems to be favored once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Record Temperatures for February 21, 2018: Burlington: 62° (old record: 59°, 1981) Syracuse: 68° (old record: 65°, 1953 and 1997) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Nam is icy from NYC northward tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Enjoy the warm weather inland guys. After leaving the city last night the temp difference at my house was incredible. From warm 60s to raw 40s. As far as the way it “felt” the biggest difference I have ever experienced between the two places. Still in the 40s out here with low clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Enjoy the warm weather inland guys. After leaving the city last night the temp difference at my house was incredible. From warm 60s to raw 40s. As far as the way it “felt” the biggest difference I have ever experienced between the two places. Still in the 40s out here with low clouds. I rather have raw 40s right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 42m42 minutes ago More According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Warm spots approaching 70 and its only 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Suns out now here. 66 How high can we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 sun busting through here now too. NAM has sleet and snow here tomorrow LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 43 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is icy from NYC northward tomorrow Looks like you have to be well North and West as the surface freezing line hangs around NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 31 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 42m42 minutes ago More According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018. We have one last shot at a big snowstorm between March 5-10th as the negative NAO rebounds, and if we miss I think that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We have one last shot at a big snowstorm between March 5-10th as the negative NAO rebounds, and if we miss I think that's about it. Agreed, the blocking pattern will also favor Europe much more than us with both cold & snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Record Temperatures for February 21, 2018: Atlantic City: 69° (old record: 67°, 1994 and 2016) Binghamton: 66° (old record: 61°, 1953) Boston: 65° (old record: 63°, 1906) Burlington: 67° (old record: 59°, 1981) Danbury: 65° (old record: 64°, 1953) Hartford: 64° (old record: 63°, 1930) New York City: …LGA: 68° (tied record set in 1953) Newark: 70° (old record: 69°, 1953) Sterling, VA: 71° (old record: 70°, 1997) Syracuse: 74° (old record: 65°, 1953 and 1997) ***New All-Time February Record (old record: 71°, 2/24/2017)*** White Plains: 65° (old record: 61°, 2002) Wilmington, DE: 70° (tied record set in 1953) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Still waiting for this fog to go away. Stuck in the 50’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Sun and 70 now. dew point 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Deluge incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 EWR up to 73 as of 11:30 am. May as well make a run of 80. Its going to happen in February eventually 74 at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: EWR up to 73 as of 11:30 am. May as well make a run of 80. Its going to happen in February eventually Today is the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 Current temp is up to 72 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 74 at EWR...all-time Feb high 76 70 at LGA....all-time Feb high 74 72 at NYC...all-time Feb high 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Today is the day. Probably not but it'll be close. I think they'll end up at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: EWR up to 73 as of 11:30 am. May as well make a run of 80. Its going to happen in February eventually 74 at noon These words hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 70 at noon in mid-February because well why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 75.7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 If you're wondering how a massive -NAO and 50/50 confluent LP pair interact to change storm behavior, the 12z GFS is a great example of that. A lakes cutter (seemingly) is forced SE due to the upper air flow and becomes a ~985mb LP decaying off the coast. There's another situation of a miller B scenario where a system in the OH Valley is forced S of the area and amplifies into another ~985mb LP (post truncation!). The blocking slows down the pattern dramatically. There are huge LP centers in the Atlantic that completely clog up the flow; they occlude and retrograde as they completely cut off from the jet stream. The massive upper level LP S of Greenland barely moves in three days. This allows systems off the EC to have time to amplify and stall. Such a loaded pattern in so many ways. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 74 and climbing. Plenty of time to get even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Nam is icy from NYC northward tomorrow Sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Probably not but it'll be close. I think they'll end up at 78 77 as of 1245pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Been telling my wife since the weekend that EWR would hit 80 today. I can't be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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