February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I have been at this location since 1995.  For the 22 full winters since, we've averaged 39.6" per winter.  Over the same time frame, Upton has averaged 40.3"

If I get 48.5" of snow this winter, the 23 year average will tick up over 40".  We've got 22" to go for that. 

After that, if it doesn't snow a flake for the next 7 winters, the 30 year average will be 30.7"   I dare someone to go post that last bit in the MA forum.  Just kidding....don't do it.  Except for a couple of great winters, they've had it worse than State College.

 

We are over due for an a true I95 mauler. The last one was PD2. I had 33” in Towson Md. Still the biggest storm I have experienced 

[rgwp96]

Anybody have uptons snowfall statistics for last 10 or so years 

[NorthShoreWx]

39 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Anybody have uptons snowfall statistics for last 10 or so years 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

 

[rgwp96]

27 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

 

Thank u 

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, snywx said:

It hasn't been too bad here in the Mid HV considering in the last 15 yrs im averaging 5" above my longterm average but places further N & NW into MSV/BGM/ALB have been on a horrific streak. 

Your area has done much better because you have benefited from heavier totals in more traditional Nor'easters like Boxing Day, 1/3/14, 1/21/14, Jan 2016, etc....those storms didn't do much for interior areas like NE PA.

The exceptions would be the Mar 2017 snowstorm and the 2010 Snowicane, both of which were huge events in Orange County and NE PA.2009-2010 was probably the last really great winter at my house.

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Your area has done much better because you have benefited from heavier totals in more traditional Nor'easters like Boxing Day, 1/3/14, 1/21/14, Jan 2016, etc....those storms didn't do much for interior areas like NE PA.

The exceptions would be the Mar 2017 snowstorm and the 2010 Snowicane, both of which were huge events in Orange County and NE PA.2009-2010 was probably the last really great winter at my house.

Last winter was a good one up here. Finished with 74.7". The most since the 09-10 season where I finished with 76". 

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

Last winter was a good one up here. Finished with 74.7". The most since the 09-10 season where I finished with 76". 

Has Orange County ever topped 100 inches ?

[snywx]

23 minutes ago, sferic said:

Has Orange County ever topped 100 inches ?

Yes a few times actually. Some of my fellow O.C peeps might have exact numbers from their records but I do remember 95-96 & 02-03 eclipsing the 100" mark in Highland Mills. 93-94 may have come very close as well..

[Rtd208]

 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We are over due for an a true I95 mauler. The last one was PD2. I had 33” in Towson Md. Still the biggest storm I have experienced 

Jan 2016 was very close and hit a big area.....Boxing Day too but 30 miles west it was much less

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We are over due for an a true I95 mauler. The last one was PD2. I had 33” in Towson Md. Still the biggest storm I have experienced 

Nope, not at all. The people who are truly overdue are the I-81 corridor and Appalachian spine from Central PA Southwest. I-95 has been spoiled like crazy especially from Philly on Northeast since 2000. There really has been a climactic shift away from far inland big snow events from I-80 south. I can’t think of many ways to explain it after this many years. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

It would be nice to see a classically widespread winter where most areas from Virginia to Maine from interior to the coast are well above average. Cases in point are 02-03, 95-96, and I believe 77-78 and 60-61 going back a bit. 13-14 I think was close, but came up a bit short for far northern and interior locations. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Nope, not at all. The people who are truly overdue are the I-81 corridor and Appalachian spine from Central PA Southwest. I-95 has been spoiled like crazy especially from Philly on Northeast since 2000. There really has been a climactic shift away from far inland big snow events from I-80 south. I can’t think of many ways to explain it after this many years. 

In 10-11 we had two monsters and one 8-10 inches that was a bigger deal a little north, along with a regular 3-5 incher. When we get it, we get it. It used to be many years between such storms; 1978, then nothing big in my region all the way til 82, with the jan storm that caused the Potomac plane crash, and the April blizzard. But they weren't super huge. That would come in Feb 83. Then nothing close until Jan 87. and nothing big again until March 93. Then 96, followed by a snow drought of 5 years....since then it has been off to the races though the last two winters have been unexceptional around here, and IMBY this one has been mostly quiet so far. What has become more common are extended periods of warmth and freakish temps in the 60's in mid winter. We really didn't see that when I was a kid.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, snywx said:

Yes a few times actually. Some of my fellow O.C peeps might have exact numbers from their records but I do remember 95-96 & 02-03 eclipsing the 100" mark in Highland Mills. 93-94 may have come very close as well..

93/94 I recorded 105 inches  where I live in Eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

In 95/96 I recorded 118 inches. I did not keep records in 02/03 but it had to be close to 100 if not exceed 100 inches. The December through February average temperatures in 93/94 and 02/03 were an identical 31.2 in Central Park, in 95/96 it was a bit warmer at 32.3. Subtract the usual 8-10 degrees off those averages for the HV.

I always preferred 93/94 over 95/96. I recorded the coldest temperature I've ever seen at -23 during that stretch in January 1994. Now that was winter.

[snywx]

23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

93/94 I recorded 105 inches  where I live in Eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

In 95/96 I recorded 118 inches. I did not keep records in 02/03 but it had to be close to 100 if not exceed 100 inches. The December through February average temperatures in 93/94 and 02/03 were an identical 31.2 in Central Park, in 95/96 it was a bit warmer at 32.3. Subtract the usual 8-10 degrees off those averages for the HV.

I always preferred 93/94 over 95/96. I recorded the coldest temperature I've ever seen at -23 during that stretch in January 1994. Now that was winter.

My folks were living in Timber Ridge (Highland Mills) during 95-96 & 02-03. I def remember 95-96 being well over 100" there and I believe 02-03 was right around 100". 02-03 was also the season I started to notice the microclimate of that location ( Highland Mills, Central Valley, Monroe, Harriman). 

[bluewave]

While colder air is beginning to filter in as we head into the first week of February, the MJO 6-7 is near record amplitude for this time of year.This means that storm tracks may trend further west and warmer over time despite colder air pressing toward the east as Canada gets very cold. You can see how the EPS is trending stronger with the WAR in just the last few days. 

 

New run

Old run

 

[IrishRob17]

16 hours ago, sferic said:

Has Orange County ever topped 100 inches ?

 

15 hours ago, snywx said:

Yes a few times actually. Some of my fellow O.C peeps might have exact numbers from their records but I do remember 95-96 & 02-03 eclipsing the 100" mark in Highland Mills. 93-94 may have come very close as well..

 

11 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

93/94 I recorded 105 inches  where I live in Eastern Orange County (Highland Mills).

In 95/96 I recorded 118 inches. I did not keep records in 02/03 but it had to be close to 100 if not exceed 100 inches. The December through February average temperatures in 93/94 and 02/03 were an identical 31.2 in Central Park, in 95/96 it was a bit warmer at 32.3. Subtract the usual 8-10 degrees off those averages for the HV.

I always preferred 93/94 over 95/96. I recorded the coldest temperature I've ever seen at -23 during that stretch in January 1994. Now that was winter.

I recorded 92" for the 02/03 season but I was living at 125', a quarter mile from the Hudson in New Windsor at that time so I'd say it was easily a 100" season for most of Orange County which is at a higher elevation.  I also wasn't recording anything under 1" in those days so I could have had pretty close to 100" even at that location.  I wasn't keeping detailed records yet in the 90's, well I started to in the 95/96 season but it was on my old Commodore 128 and that system and floppy disk is long gone LOL but anecdotally I remember the total being just below 120" for the season too.  93/94 had to be close to 100" but I don't have any records to back that up.  I do know that is still my #1 winter, it featured lots of snow, some ice, severe cold and the longest snow pack I've seen to date.  All that said, if I knew then what I know now, I would have taken more accurate measurements and kept better records.  For all you young weenies out there I recommend getting serious about your snow measuring and records, it may seem like a chore now, or even tedious, but someday you'll be glad you have those records to look back on.  PM me if you want a snap shot of how my spreadsheets are set up if you are looking for a way to start your own records and then modify for your own interests and needs.       

[Drz1111]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While colder air is beginning to filter in as we head into the first week of February, the MJO 6-7 is near record amplitude for this time of year.This means that storm tracks may trend further west and warmer over time despite colder air pressing toward the east as Canada gets very cold. You can see how the EPS is trending stronger with the WAR in just the last few days. 

 

New run

Old run

 

This is a GOOD thing, especially with less-amplified cyclones.  Y'all spend all your time chasing classic KU upper-air patterns, but in our best winters we get plenty of snow from moderate events and, especially this time of year, some ridging in the west Atlantic can help with that.  I would've thought y'all would've learned your less from the last cold period, where everyone was kvetching that the pattern didn't support KU storms because intense cyclones would tend to be cutters or apps runners, which was true, but then we got like 18" of snow over 3 weeks and a long period of snowcover.

Don't chase the dragon, chase the lizard.  there are more of them.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While colder air is beginning to filter in as we head into the first week of February, the MJO 6-7 is near record amplitude for this time of year.This means that storm tracks may trend further west and warmer over time despite colder air pressing toward the east as Canada gets very cold. You can see how the EPS is trending stronger with the WAR in just the last few days. 

 

New run

Old run

 

 

These are pos tilted troughs with low level -EPO HP ejecting their way through MT and then east.

We just snowed in phase 6 , the WAR will allow these to BM track but those heights are not necessarily warmer resulting with the ridge axis where it is on the WC.

I will wait to see what this looks like 3 days out 

If anything the center of the Vortex is further east over HB and that is what will allow cold air to bleed into the pattern.

I just can't look at the mid levels 5 days out and worry , L.P is going to the BM , let's hope it gets everyone.

[bluewave]

On January 31, 2018 at 10:05 AM, Drz1111 said:

This is a GOOD thing, especially with less-amplified cyclones.  Y'all spend all your time chasing classic KU upper-air patterns, but in our best winters we get plenty of snow from moderate events and, especially this time of year, some ridging in the west Atlantic can help with that.  I would've thought y'all would've learned your less from the last cold period, where everyone was kvetching that the pattern didn't support KU storms because intense cyclones would tend to be cutters or apps runners, which was true, but then we got like 18" of snow over 3 weeks and a long period of snowcover.

Don't chase the dragon, chase the lizard.  there are more of them.

The key is less amplified cyclones. But anything that is too amped up first week of Feb will hug the coast or even run a bit inland. You have to take notice when you see the MJO amplitude near 3.5 SD from phase 6 into 7. This is very close to record values in that phase for the start of February. 

 

[Drz1111]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The key is less amplified cyclones. But anything that is too amped up in this pattern will hug the coast or even run a bit inland. You have to take notice when you see the MJO amplitude near 3.5 SD from phase 6 into 7. This is very close to record values in that phase for the start of February. 

 

It’s early February.  The ocean is cold as ****.  Less teleconnections, more meteorology.

agreed, though, that anything that blows up likely involves mixing.  Would be hard to get an all snow big one in this pattern.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

It’s early February.  The ocean is cold as ****.  Less teleconnections, more meteorology.

agreed, though, that anything that blows up likely involves mixing.  Would be hard to get an all snow big one in this pattern.

Your comment less teleconnections and more meteorology doesn't make since they are both intertwined. Of course the ocean is cold in February. But the importance is the location of SST anomalies combined with any given background pattern at the time. 

[Drz1111]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Your comment less teleconnections and more meteorology doesn't make since they are both intertwined. Of course the ocean is cold in February. But the importance is the location of SST anomalies combined with any given background pattern at the time. 

Your focus on the MJO would make sense in the early season where need storms to thread the needle.  By February, especially if the early winter has been cold, we have a much bigger margin for error and can get big snows with apps runners.  Not KU storms but moderate WAA thumps before a mix or change.

[bluewave]

On January 31, 2018 at 2:22 PM, Drz1111 said:

Your focus on the MJO would make sense in the early season where need storms to thread the needle.  By February, especially if the early winter has been cold, we have a much bigger margin for error and can get big snows with apps runners.  Not KU storms but moderate WAA thumps before a mix or change.

The WAR will continue to be a player first week of Feb as long as you have a La Nina combined with such a strong MJO phase 4-7 transit. You would want to see some really weak systems that don't pump the ridge much. But more amped systems will push the R/S line inland of the coast. Still, we have a chance to pick up at least some snow at the coast. But the interior will be favored for the best snows.

[Rtd208]

Either DT (WxRisk) was being really sarcastic or pretty serious. I would have to lean towards serious since this is what the models (take with a grain of salt) seem to be showing.

 

[Rtd208]

 

[Isotherm]

Here are the salient facts from my perspective. I've been quite frankly a bit baffled by some of the statements I've read recently in general.

 

1.  The torch versus no torch debate. I'll let the images and numbers impart the point. The first image depicts January temperature anomalies 1st-15th, and the second image, January temperature anomalies for the month. The negative anomalies have been completely or virtually completely eradicated across most of the northern tier. The departures for January for the I-95 stations through today are -0.2 DCA, -0.1 PHL, -0.6 NYC, and -0.3 BOS. This will be seen as a near normal month for most, and slightly below normal for some. The number of 50F+ highs in January in our local region have been among the top 10 of years. Newark finished 3rd place for number of 55F+ days in January.

 

So to assert that a torch did not occur from Jan 11-31st is patently false in my view.

 

 

 

 

2. The February pattern. The high-geopotential heights near the East Coast (cue the Jaws music, "SE Ridge!"), regardless of the diagnostic label assigned to said feature - is definitely a factor in the upcoming pattern. There will continue to be cold shots swinging through, but the upstream mid-level ridge axis located offshore of the West Coast, heights will tend to be higher than normal near the East Coast. The signature for poleward ridging west of ideal is supported by tropical forcing. It's not a very warm pattern, but it's also not a cold pattern. Depending on individual storm tracks, there will be above/below days, likely from lows surging pre-frontal warmth northward followed by seasonable cool air subsequently.

 

3. The progression of the GWO suggests that we rapidly dissipate the convection associated w/ the MJO prior to phase 8. MT/FT has increased rapidly with a subsequent AAM surge and resultant jet extension. We see that outcome currently unfolding. The upper-divergence should propagate beyond 7 as it becomes incoherent, providing a conducive window for a winter storm potentially, in the Feb 10th-13th period. 

 

4. The SPV will intensify/tighten over the coming 10 days as w-1 declines. There will be a follow up w-2 hit as prognosticated by the precursor pattern and ewd propagating tropical forcing, but it doesn't appear sufficiently strong to do the necessary damage at this point. Given the w-1 decline, I would like to see w-2 height amplitudes exceed 900 gpm for at least a week to 10 days (as history dictates; this is generally required for split precondition). In light of that timing, a split would theoretically occur by February 18th-19th at the earliest, which is getting rather late in the winter for correlation to tropospheric outcomes. But it could potentially impact the end of the month into March. However, nothing may occur. This is something to monitor.

 

5. Storm threats will favor inland/interior areas through D7-9 due to the foregoing. 

 

6. The collapse of the GWO and MJO signal with a poleward moving TPV would deamplify the upstream ridge, a priori, inducing a warming downstream. Much of the long term details are a function of the stratospheric evolution. At this point, I'd err toward a dying MJO wave in p-7 with lingering effects into p-8, providing a window of opportunity as we approach by month (10th-14th). I think the probability of running a favorable pattern into March has decreased quite a bit right now, but we will revisit. 

 

In sum, my comments from over a week ago still stand, namely, that a widespread 6"+ snowstorm looks unlikely until we approach the 10th. As the tropical forcing engender rossby wave dispersion shifts the ridge axis, I still think there's a nice window Feb 10th-14th for a "storm", magnitude indeterminate. 

[Rtd208]

I think some people (including myself) were banking on a good February into March, that may or may not be the case now. As Isotherm posted above it seems like the second half of the month into March could be out best chances for cold/snow. 

[the_other_guy]

" The torch versus no torch debate. I'll let the images and numbers impart the point. The first image depicts January temperature anomalies 1st-15th, and the second image, January temperature anomalies for the month. The negative anomalies have been completely or virtually completely eradicated across most of the northern tier. The departures for January for the I-95 stations through today are -0.2 DCA, -0.1 PHL, -0.6 NYC, and -0.3 BOS. This will be seen as a near normal month for most, and slightly below normal for some. The number of 50F+ highs in January in our local region have been among the top 10 of years. Newark finished 3rd place for number of 55F+ days in January."

 

Thank You. I got torched for essentially saying the same thing 2 pages ago. 

[Rtd208]