EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Nope Thats only if we have a strong +PNA Gotcha. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 AO and NAO tank on the GFS to -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: AO and NAO tank on the GFS to -5. Very low, worries me about suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Very low, worries me about suppression It’s a Strong +PNA coupled with that you have to worry about not just the AO/NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 AO and NAO tank on the GFS to -5.N you believe Goofus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 minute ago, The Plowsman said: 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: AO and NAO tank on the GFS to -5. N you believe Goofus? Have you looked at any others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 33 minutes ago, The Plowsman said: 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: AO and NAO tank on the GFS to -5. N you believe Goofus? Oh boy , Care to check out the NAOspread on the EPS ? Go wx.graphics Ryan shows it to you for free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 hour ago, The Plowsman said: 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: AO and NAO tank on the GFS to -5. N you believe Goofus? Look at the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 9:59 AM, uncle W said: here are some of my links to past weather...Boston included...I've been keeping records for NYC weather since the early 1960's so a lot of my research was done many years ago...I used to go to the weather bureau in Manhattan and go over the official books...now they are in Upton NY...they might as well be in Boston that far away... https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ma0770 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_finish=0.1933526659132916 https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php Thank you so much for sharing these links and the thoughtful response! Hoping you, and all others within this subforum, will see another significant event before this season comes to a close. Myself, I anticipate the two week period between March 3 and the 17th...will be the most likely interval to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 9 hours ago, BxEngine said: Have you looked at any others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 50degs., or +14degs. Month to date is +4.0. Should be +7.0 by the 28th. Target is to end month @+6.7 or more.. So with these numbers, the 28th will have to be 9degs. BN in order to stop a new monthly record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 An early and strong taste of springlike weather lies ahead. Near record to record warmth is likely today and tomorrow. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/19 38.4° (4.0° above normal) 2/20 39.1°-39.4° (2/19 estimate: 39.3°-39.6°) 2/28 41.0°-42.7° (2/19 estimate: 41.3°-43.2°) The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°. Through February 19, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record. 2/1-19 Average Temperature: 2012: 39.8° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record) 2017: 37.8° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record) 2018: 38.4° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 80% (2/19 estimate: 80%). The statistical probability of a record warm February is approximately 50% (slightly higher). The teleconnection forecast calls for an AO-/PNA- pattern to start March. Such a pattern has accounted for 25% of the snowstorms that brought NYC 4” or more snow during the March 1-15, 1950-2017 period. 40% of those storms brought 4” or more snow to Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. The biggest such storm was the March 1960 blizzard that dumped 19.8” snow in Boston, 14.6” snow in New York City, and 8.4” snow in Philadelphia. Reflecting a shortening of wave lengths, 50% of cases where 4” or more snow fell in NYC during the March 1-15, 1950-2017 period occurred with a negative PNA. 40% occurred with a positive AO. 25% also occurred with an AO+/PNA- pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: An early and strong taste of springlike weather lies ahead. Near record to record warmth is likely tomorrow and Wednesday. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/19 38.4° (4.0° above normal) 2/20 39.1°-39.4° (2/19 estimate: 39.3°-39.6°) 2/28 41.0°-42.7° (2/19 estimate: 41.3°-43.2°) The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°. Through February 19, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record. 2/1-19 Average Temperature: 2012: 39.8° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record) 2017: 37.8° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record) 2018: 38.4° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 80% (2/19 estimate: 80%). The statistical probability of a record warm February is approximately 50% (slightly higher). The teleconnection forecast calls for an AO-/PNA- pattern to start March. Such a pattern has accounted for 25% of the snowstorms that brought NYC 4” or more snow during the March 1-15, 1950-2017 period. 40% of those storms brought 4” or more snow to Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. The biggest such storm was the March 1960 blizzard that dumped 19.8” snow in Boston, 14.6” snow in New York City, and 8.4” snow in Philadelphia. Reflecting a shortening of wave lengths, 50% of cases where 4” or more snow fell in NYC during the March 1-15, 1950-2017 period occurred with a negative PNA. 40% occurred with a positive AO. 25% also occurred with an AO+/PNA- pattern. With a negative nao , i would think the probability of a big stoem would Increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 10 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Good thing its negative otherwise it would be a suppression concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Record breaking February ridge over the area tonight into Wednesday. It will take the -NAO/-AO retrogression until the first week of March to get a trough back into the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 With all the attention on the AO and NAO, nobody is discussing the next EPO dive into negative territory: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Visibility here under 300'. Temp. is 50. From a distance away inside the room, the spaces in the vertical blinds, seem to be hiding a whiteout blizzard! Should be so lucky. Up close the truth is laid bare. Visibility quickly up to 3-5miles, temp. 52 9AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Record breaking February ridge over the area tonight into Wednesday. It will take the -NAO/-AO retrogression until the first week of March to get a trough back into the Northeast. What is the catalyst for such a robust ridge? And two years in a row, no less. Just strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Fog is gone now, just overcast 53* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 48 minutes ago, dWave said: Fog is gone now, just overcast 53* 60's just to our south where they are getting a few breaks in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: 60's just to our south where they are getting a few breaks in the clouds. Yeah clouds thinning out and a few breaks of sun appearing here now. 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, dWave said: Yeah clouds thinning out and a few breaks of sun appearing here now. 55. Full sun up here... 48° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: With a negative nao , i would think the probability of a big stoem would Increase. The possibility of a slow-moving storm would be elevated by Greenland blocking. Once we get through this unseasonable warmth, there might be one or two good opportunities for a meaningful snowstorm during the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 2 hours ago, dWave said: Yeah clouds thinning out and a few breaks of sun appearing here now. 55. Newark just jumped 6 degrees in the past hour to 62 after clearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 64 here, partly cloudy to mostly sunny. I wasn’t expecting it to clear out this much out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cfa said: 64 here, partly cloudy to mostly sunny. I wasn’t expecting it to clear out this much out here. It only took 2 years to break the record again. ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 2016. THIS RECORD WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO RISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Widespread 70s in southern half of NJ, someone may get close to 80 tomorrow if we have enough sun. Up to 65 near Old Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Insane warmth on the south shore today with the wantagh mesonet peaking at 62. The wind has since some around to the south more and the temp has dropped back to 54. 62 right on the 38 degree Bay in February is mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 54 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Insane warmth on the south shore today with the wantagh mesonet peaking at 62. The wind has since some around to the south more and the temp has dropped back to 54. 62 right on the 38 degree Bay in February is mind boggling. Might be an Ambrose Jet day later today or tomorrow? No way there isn’t a roaring wind off the ocean sooner or later when there’s this kind of contrast and high pressure that develops offshore, unless there’s somehow a stronger westerly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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