donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Low 70s are not that unusual for late February. In 97 we got 74. It would need to be 75+ to be really noteworthy Since 1869, February has had only 10 days on which the temperature hit 70 or above in Central Park. Half of those days occurred after 1980. Further, the probability of such exceptional warmth has nearly doubled since the 1961-90 baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Since 1869, February has had only 10 days on which the temperature hit 70 or above in Central Park. Half of those days occurred after 1980. Further, the probability of such exceptional warmth has nearly doubled since the 1961-90 baseline. I could be wrong but most of those were in 1997 and 85 and none in the past 20 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: Last February had record warmth followed by a blizzard in these parts in March. Would love a repeat, except no sleet for anyone. I'd say the chances are much greater than climo. The ensembles are really hitting the blocking hard last few days. The PNA also starts to lose its importance by March. I found that some of our biggest events come before or after record warm periods, it's like a rubber band snapping into place. We're also in an unprecedented era of extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I could be wrong but most of those were in 1997 and 85 and none in the past 20 years Last year had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Newark has recorded 17 days (DJF) since 96-97 of 70 or warmer. From 31-32 to 95-96 Newark only had a total of 13 days. Newark DJF 70's 16-17...1 15-16...1 13-14...1 10-11...1 06-07...2 01-02...4 98-99...4 97-98...1 96-97...2 84-85...2 82-83...2 78-79...1 53-54...2 49-50...1 48-49...1 46-47...1 38-39...1 31-32...2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Been a wet Feb with 5.01" precip so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: A positive I am seeing on the EPS and GEFS is a return to a negative EPO. That coupled with the negative AO and NAO could be a powder keg. Add in the MJO going through phases 8 1 and 2 for good measure. Hope this does not muck of spring. I believe there will be potential during the first half of March. Then, it will be interesting to see if winter suddenly gives way to sustained spring warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I believe there will be potential during the first half of March. Then, it will be interesting to see if winter suddenly gives way to sustained spring warmth. Thanks Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I believe there will be potential during the first half of March. Then, it will be interesting to see if winter suddenly gives way to sustained spring warmth. ..JB/earthlight/anthony masielo just to name a few(and you too don) believe late feb, early march will feature a deep -NAO..analogs are comparing upcoming period to march 1962..i'll have to check the bible(kocin-uccellini). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 11:21 AM, SnoSki14 said: It keeps getting delayed. The SE ridging continues to trend stronger as we get closer. In fact we may see another round of record breaking warmth (70+) next weekend too, which would guarantee a record warm February. So either the blocking is delayed not denied or it never realizes its full potential. I am not sure what you look at man , The blocking should end up close to 4/5 SD BN In fact it may be one of deepest March blocks that we have seen in the last 10 years. The warmth this week will break many records along the EC but that in no way has any effect on what is setting up in the higher latitudes and over Greenland from late FEB thru at least March 10 th or even beyond. Many of us expect a large EC storm during the period , the ensembles are already hinting at one between the 3rd - 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 hour ago, tim said: ..JB/earthlight/anthony masielo just to name a few(and you too don) believe late feb, early march will feature a deep -NAO..analogs are comparing upcoming period to march 1962..i'll have to check the bible(kocin-uccellini). March 1962, which featured a severe storm that impacted the Mid-Atlantic region, but largely spared the NYC Metro Area was one such case. The first half of March will probably have an above climatological risk of a significant snowstorm if the blocking develops as forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: March 1962, which featured a severe storm that impacted the Mid-Atlantic region, but largely spared the NYC Metro Area was one such case. The first half of March will probably have an above climatological risk of a significant snowstorm if the blocking develops as forecast. The Ash Wedsnesday Storm severely damaged Long Beach Island in NJ if I recall correctly. Huge impacts in DE, MD, VA and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The Ash Wedsnesday Storm severely damaged Long Beach Island in NJ if I recall correctly. Huge impacts in DE, MD, VA and NC. Yes, that's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I am not sure what you look at man , The blocking should end up close to 4/5 SD BN In fact it may be one of deepest March blocks that we have seen in the last 10 years. The warmth this week will break many records along the EC but that in no way has any effect on what is setting up in the higher latitudes and over Greenland from late FEB thru at least March 10 th or even beyond. Many of us expect a large EC storm during the period , the ensembles are already hinting at one between the 3rd - 5th I'm on board, a couple days ago there was still some waffling going on as to when the blocking would fully set-up. The picture has gotten a lot more clearer with great agreement from the GEFS and EPS. I actually feel better about a big March storm when there's record warmth preceding it. I think once those 70s hit most of the public won't even think about winter, but it ain't over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Absolutely classic pattern evolution. The emergence of high heights from the Kara Sea evolves into a -5 sigma NAO block that decays over northern Canada. The lower heights in the Pac NW provide ample shortwaves that are able to slow and amplify due to the blocked, decompressed height field over the E US. The STJ would also be open for business with a flow from the SW US in part of the pattern. There is also a persistent jet stream off the EC, which promotes the development of storm systems off the coast, south of our latitude. This is a KU pattern, no doubt about it. In fact, the decay of the blocking is just as important as the blocking itself, as many of our largest winter storms form when high-latitude ridging weakens. I fully expect a MECS during the first two weeks of March. Get some sleep while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Freefallhttps://content.invisioncic.com/r273943/monthly_2018_02/gefs_nao_00.png.c0e3d80c1f1d98f4d0ab01e033c9ca6f.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2018 Author Share Posted February 19, 2018 Looks like the GFS is showing the potential for a decent amount of precipitation next weekend, Euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 51degs., or about 16degs. AN. Month to date is +3.8. Should be +7.5 by the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like the GFS is showing the potential for a decent amount of precipitation next weekend, Euro?? Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Pattern changes on the models next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: Absolutely classic pattern evolution. The emergence of high heights from the Kara Sea evolves into a -5 sigma NAO block that decays over northern Canada. The lower heights in the Pac NW provide ample shortwaves that are able to slow and amplify due to the blocked, decompressed height field over the E US. The STJ would also be open for business with a flow from the SW US in part of the pattern. There is also a persistent jet stream off the EC, which promotes the development of storm systems off the coast, south of our latitude. This is a KU pattern, no doubt about it. In fact, the decay of the blocking is just as important as the blocking itself, as many of our largest winter storms form when high-latitude ridging weakens. I fully expect a MECS during the first two weeks of March. Get some sleep while you can. Agreed. - 4/5/6 SD NAO / AO is the set up is for a high end event. It's a gorgeous pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 An early and strong taste of springlike weather lies ahead. Near record to record warmth is likely tomorrow and Wednesday. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/18 38.2° (3.8° above normal) 2/20 39.3°-39.6° (2/18 estimate: 39.2°-39.8°) 2/28 41.3°-43.2° (2/18 estimate: 41.1°-43.2°) The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°. Through February 17, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record. 2/1-18 Average Temperature: 2012: 39.8° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record) 2017: 36.7° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record) 2018: 38.2° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 80% (2/18 estimate: 79%). The statistical probability of a record warm February is approximately 55%. Finally, there is now good agreement on the ensembles that the AO will fall to -3.000 or below during the opening days of March. Since 1950, there were 16 years during which the AO fell to -3.000 or below during the March 1-10 period. 50% saw at least one 4” or greater snowstorm. That’s 36% above climatology for the March 1950-2017 period. There were also some near misses in 1962 and 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: I guess the only caveat is that posters wished this pattern emerged earlier in the winter instead of at the beginning of meteorological spring. But this looks like it will be our biggest March AO drop since 2013. I thought this was going to happen by the 15th and it blew my monthly forecast departure apart But it does in deed develop just 2 weeks late and it looks to be very strong I think people saw from the 6 inch plus snowstorm graphic that was posted here a week ago , there are as many 6 inch snows in NYC March 1 - 20 as there are Jan 1 - 20 So three plenty of time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: You can see the retrograding block and 50/50 low are we head into early March. It looks like a very strong early spring Noreaster signal. So with the right track, a warning level snowstorm could be in the cards. This 2010's pattern just keeps finding ways to snow even following record warmth. I have 33 inches of snow YTD here , my call was for 50 for the season , I believe I have a real shot What is setting up is a pattern that is conducive for a large slow EC system to take shape My first period is the 2 - 5 but it's not the last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: You can see how the tail end of the EPS is picking up on the energy getting forced underneath as the block retrogrades. Probably plenty of model mayhem as they don't do very well under retrograding blocks. I keyed in that as just the first period , the block seems to have some duration this time , so it will be interesting to see how many SWs are in the undercutting jet over a 2 week period. Lets get the first one and anything after that is gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Before the blocking takes hold February could be one of the warmest and wettest months on record. Once the SE ridge starts to collapse a bit, several rounds of precip are likely every 2 days or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 13 hours ago, tim said: ..JB/earthlight/anthony masielo just to name a few(and you too don) believe late feb, early march will feature a deep -NAO..analogs are comparing upcoming period to march 1962..i'll have to check the bible(kocin-uccellini). Better not hope March 1962 analog verifies because there was only 0.2 inches of snow in NYC that March …….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Blocking looks strong and in agreement between EPS and GEFS. Is suppression a concern with such strong blocking? Perhaps a little SE ridge can be beneficial here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Blocking looks strong and in agreement between EPS and GEFS. Is suppression a concern with such strong blocking? Perhaps a little SE ridge can be beneficial here. Nope Thats only if we have a strong +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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