Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The EPS trended weaker with the upcoming blocking while the GEFS trended WAY stronger. Both are showing a slightly negative EPO in March. Anyone can correct me if they disagree, but wouldn't we want to stay away from the extreme blocking the GEFS shows? The models and the atmosphere is currently in a state of flux especially since the SSW began around a week ago. IMO I think some wild weather is in our future, not saying it will necessarily be snow but the pattern seems like it is turning volatile and active storm wise. I am in agreement with some others that the snow we receive tonight will NOT be our last opportunity for a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The models and the atmosphere is currently in a state of flux especially since the SSW began around a week ago. IMO I think some wild weather is in our future, not saying it will necessarily be snow but the pattern seems like it is turning volatile and active storm wise. I am in agreement with some others that the snow we receive tonight will NOT be our last opportunity for a winter storm. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yes it is concerning; pointing out a few dates in the past doesn't hide the fact that we've had more warm anomalies and closer together in time than in the past. It just shows you how impressive that cold snap really was late December/early January in this warm era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 11 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Thank you Unc. I'm sure i read the stats from you before, and you talked about how few storms over 10 inches there have been in March. Just 8 in over a hundred years. And as for the other ones, some of those storms were not that widespread, didn't stick much to roads, were slushy etc. In my neck of the woods, the March 09 storm was 5 inches. Since I am a neighbor to SI, I will assume it was around the same ( though there can be some significant differences even over a short distance ). I think you have proven my point; don't look to March for big snowstorms. I wonder how many of these youngsters were around in the 80's when we'd be out on the bay flounder fishing in early March and my vegetable garden already had cabbage, broccoli and peas planted. I never asserted March snowfall never happened or couldn't in the future. But if the past is any guide, there aren't many over 10. Hell, I was around for the April 82 storm. Now that was a heckuva storm, and was a big one for that era, maybe you remember the total ( I believe it was still less than 10 in my area ) April's Biggest snowstorms... 10.2" 3-4th 1915 10.0" 13th 1875 9.6" 6th 1982 8.5" 1st 1924 6.5" 8-9th 1917 6.5" 5th 1944 6.4" 6-7th 1938 5.0" 9th 1907 4.2" 8th 1956 4.0" 7th 2003 3.3" 8-9th 1916 3.3" 5-6th 1896 3.0" 18th 1887 2.6" 11-13th 1918 2.5" 4th 1957 2.5" 4th 1870 2.5" 5th 1898 2.2" 9-10th 1942 2.0" 2nd 1871 1.9" 14th 1950 1.7" 12-13th 1940 1.2" 9th 2000 1.2" 2nd 1965 1.0" 12th 1894 1.0" 15th 1892 1.0" 4th 1886 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 NAO and AO look good by the end of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: NAO and AO look good by the end of February. It keeps getting delayed. The SE ridging continues to trend stronger as we get closer. In fact we may see another round of record breaking warmth (70+) next weekend too, which would guarantee a record warm February. So either the blocking is delayed not denied or it never realizes its full potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It keeps getting delayed. The SE ridging continues to trend stronger as we get closer. In fact we may see another round of record breaking warmth (70+) next weekend too, which would guarantee a record warm February. So either the blocking is delayed not denied or it never realizes its full potential. It'll be here any day....but by then it will be April! Seriously, I hope it happens soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: It'll be here any day....but by then it will be April! Seriously, I hope it happens soon though. It's likely to arrive but I have no idea what kind of weather it'll bring with it. It's not too late yet, the first two weeks of March can still be very snowy but I don't like the delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 RMM diagrams continue to lag the true u-div forcing progession at z200. The MJO signal has entered phase 1 (skipped over phase 8) as expected, as one can see by the -VP signal over Africa. This will operate adjunctively with the downwelling circulation anomalies and tropospheric wave break to tank the NAO in about 7-9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Current temp is 37/DP 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Current temp 36/DP 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Snowin in Berks Co, PA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 49degs., or 14degs. AN. Month to date temporarily lower at +3.9. This should be +7.1 by the 26th. We want to finish at +6.7, or better to best last Feb. It had more snow [9.4"] and sported a 70 Degree Day. Our snow is over, but 70 is in the running. I see no cold till the 28th.***** *****Actually like the dog chasing its own tail around town, I just said that to make you feel good. Once again, real lasting cold, has lept ahead to Mar. 20th. Sporadic cold before then. Meanwhile everyone who called for a cold winter, or who called the Jan. Thaw temporary, were wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Just a remarkable run of February warmth in NYC since 1990. It makes February 2015 one of the greatest temperature outliers against a trend that we have seen. Almost like June-July 2009 vs all the summer heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Excited to breakout the shorts this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Winter made a cameo appearance last evening. For a time, parts of the region experienced moderate to heavy snow. Locations near New York City picked up in excess of 6” snow. The morning dawned in glorious fashion with trees, homes, and lawns plastered in white. But that scene will be a fleeting one. An early and strong taste of springlike weather lies ahead. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/17 38.2° (3.9° above normal) 2/20 39.2°-39.8° (2/17 estimate: 39.2°-40.4°) 2/28 41.1°-43.2° (2/17 estimate: 40.6°-43.2°) The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°. Through February 17, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record. 2/1-17 Average Temperature: 2012: 39.7° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record) 2017: 35.9° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record) 2018: 38.2° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 79% (2/17 estimate: 78%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Winter made a cameo appearance last evening. For a time, parts of the region experienced moderate to heavy snow. Locations near New York City picked up in excess of 6” snow. The morning dawned in glorious fashion with trees, homes, and lawns plastered in white. But that scene will be a fleeting one. An early and strong taste of springlike weather lies ahead. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/17 38.2° (3.9° above normal) 2/20 39.2°-39.8° (2/17 estimate: 39.2°-40.4°) 2/28 41.1°-43.2° (2/17 estimate: 40.6°-43.2°) The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°. Through February 17, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record. 2/1-17 Average Temperature: 2012: 39.7° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record) 2017: 35.9° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record) 2018: 38.2° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 79% (2/17 estimate: 78%). A positive I am seeing on the EPS and GEFS is a return to a negative EPO. That coupled with the negative AO and NAO could be a powder keg. Add in the MJO going through phases 8 1 and 2 for good measure. Hope this does not muck of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 49degs., or 14degs. AN. Month to date temporarily lower at +3.9. This should be +7.1 by the 26th. We want to finish at +6.7, or better to best last Feb. It had more snow [9.4"] and sported a 70 Degree Day. Our snow is over, but 70 is in the running. I see no cold till the 28th.***** *****Actually like the dog chasing its own tail around town, I just said that to make you feel good. Once again, real lasting cold, has lept ahead to Mar. 20th. Sporadic cold before then. Meanwhile everyone who called for a cold winter, or who called the Jan. Thaw temporary, were wrong. As long as we can get a storm or two again like yesterday I can live with the warmer temps. Ready for spring anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Excited to breakout the shorts this week. Really curious to see what kind and how many records the northeast breaks. I think some all time monthly records are on the line, this may reappear again for the weekend. New gfs is showing more 70+ potential on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Earthlight is loving the pattern moving forward and thinks we might see a huge storm to start off March. Would love to see a March 2001 setup again, but this time around we get a direct hit. What an astounding end to winter that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Really curious to see what kind and how many records the northeast breaks. I think some all time monthly records are on the line, this may reappear again for the weekend. New gfs is showing more 70+ potential on Sat. Low 70s are not that unusual for late February. In 97 we got 74. It would need to be 75+ to be really noteworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 You have to go all the way back to last year to find the all-time monthly record highs for February in the interior. 74F at ALB, 73 at POU... 12z GFS says we tickle those numbers on Wednesday. Hopefully we don't see a repeat of the massacre on fruit tree crops from prolonged February warmth followed by lots of single digit lows in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Low 70s are not that unusual for late February. In 97 we got 74. It would need to be 75+ to be really noteworthy Discussion said we could see widespread upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Last February had record warmth followed by a blizzard in these parts in March. Would love a repeat, except no sleet for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Discussion said we could see widespread upper 70s. Wednesday looks low 70s though that certainly could overperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wednesday looks low 70s though that certainly could overperform It does so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 I like the dates Mar. 3-4 Mar. 7-8 and Mar. 21 for snow events. This is from the CFS. JMA seasonal outlook has a cold spring, as of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Last February had record warmth followed by a blizzard in these parts in March. Would love a repeat, except no sleet for anyone. The best storms have always had a little sleet mixed in. If we stay all snow, we fringe. It stinks to waste liquid on 3:1 stuff but it's a necessary evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Low 70s are not that unusual for late February. In 97 we got 74. It would need to be 75+ to be really noteworthy This statement if made 20 years ago would be like the rantings of a mad man. There were probably two or three days above 70 in February all recorded (1869) history. I’m sure Uncle W or Don know how many have actually happened I’ll bet 80% or more have happened since 1990 BTW with yesterday’s snowfall the next averages for 1991-2020 will exceed 10 inches for February in NYC. As it keeps warming I would think this dichotomy comes to an end at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 18 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: This statement if made 20 years ago would be like the rantings of a mad man. There were probably two or three days above 70 in February all recorded (1869) history. I’m sure Uncle W or Don know how many have actually happened I’ll bet 80% or more have happened since 1990 BTW with yesterday’s snowfall the next averages for 1991-2020 will exceed 10 inches for February in NYC. As it keeps warming I would think this dichotomy comes to an end at some point Surprisingly no. If you scroll this page you see quite a few 70s from 1985 and prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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