February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't mind being wrong if we get more snowfall, for once the models have not gone the wrong direction.

Still think the warmth next week is the big story this month though, those heights are ridiculous.

I agree with that for you guys. At the same time I have seen enough 80 and sunny City west scenarios where it’s 50s with fog at my house. We probably would have been in pretty decent shape for some warm weather if the late December early January cold had not taken 10 degrees off the water temps.

[MJO812]

On 2/15/2018 at 6:04 PM, weatherpruf said:

Been waiting for a better pattern for over a month; I don't think it's gonna happen. Let's hope we pull something off this weekend, because I think that may be it.

No way

Did you see the nao today from the Euro ?

Down to -5 by the 27th of this month

We are going to have a huge storm in march.

[weatherpruf]

35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

No way

Did you see the nao today from the Euro ?

Down to -5 by the 27th of this month

We are going to have a huge storm in march.

I love your optimism, but we do not get big storms in March....it's been decades; even the 93 superstorm was a bit of a dud in this region....can we get soggy 3-6 inchers? Yes. But March storms, even when they look promising, always find a way to disappoint. Of course no one knows the future, but if you keep that in mind, that March is not a month for big snowstorms here, you will be able to temper expectations. As they say in medicine, rare things are rare, common things are common, think horses, not zebras....of course, along with you, I do hope we get a zebra, but I will be expecting horses ( snow to sleet to rain or just plain rain ).

[nzucker]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

I love your optimism, but we do not get big storms in March....it's been decades; even the 93 superstorm was a bit of a dud in this region....can we get soggy 3-6 inchers? Yes. But March storms, even when they look promising, always find a way to disappoint. Of course no one knows the future, but if you keep that in mind, that March is not a month for big snowstorms here, you will be able to temper expectations. As they say in medicine, rare things are rare, common things are common, think horses, not zebras....of course, along with you, I do hope we get a zebra, but I will be expecting horses ( snow to sleet to rain or just plain rain ).

What are you talking about dude? I had 13" in Westchester and 9" at my place in the Bronx last March 18th.

2015 had a 20" snowpack in Central Park on March 8th.

March 2013 had an 8" snowfall and a 5.5" snowfall at my parents' place in Southern Westchester. I believe the first storm was an ocean low on March 8th, the second a SWFE on March 18th.

Check your facts before posting nonsense.

[weatherpruf]

17 minutes ago, nzucker said:

What are you talking about dude? I had 13" in Westchester and 9" at my place in the Bronx last March 18th.

2015 had a 20" snowpack in Central Park on March 8th.

March 2013 had an 8" snowfall and a 5.5" snowfall at my parents' place in Southern Westchester. I believe the first storm was an ocean low on March 8th, the second a SWFE on March 18th.

Check your facts before posting nonsense.

it isn't nonsense. There was a pro met here last year who basically agreed with me on this and told everyone in my area ( CNJ ) that he thinks we will see more sleet than snow in that storm, based on history of March storms. We were both right. Now Westchester is not really in my area. We had about 5 sloppy inches of sleet last March, and many places saw far less. We also didn't get 10 inches in March 2015. This was written about extensively last year during and leading up to the big blizzard bust last March. Perhaps you were not paying attention. I do know what I am talking about for my area, I have not moved in 55 years. Don't know much about Westchester. The actual number of snowstorms even in NYC in March over 10 inches is quite limited and was well documented right here. Go ask Uncle W.

[weatherpruf]

28 minutes ago, nzucker said:

What are you talking about dude? I had 13" in Westchester and 9" at my place in the Bronx last March 18th.

2015 had a 20" snowpack in Central Park on March 8th.

March 2013 had an 8" snowfall and a 5.5" snowfall at my parents' place in Southern Westchester. I believe the first storm was an ocean low on March 8th, the second a SWFE on March 18th.

Check your facts before posting nonsense.

Just to educate you further on CNJ, the March 2013 "event" was a slushy 5 inches that was down to 3 already by the time it ended. And I didn't say anything about snowpack. I said storms. And thank you for confirming that even last March in the Bronx, a snowier area than mine most of the time, didn't make it to 10 inches. That storm really busted out here.

[nzucker]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

it isn't nonsense. There was a pro met here last year who basically agreed with me on this and told everyone in my area ( CNJ ) that he thinks we will see more sleet than snow in that storm, based on history of March storms. We were both right. Now Westchester is not really in my area. We had about 5 sloppy inches of sleet last March, and many places saw far less. We also didn't get 10 inches in March 2015. This was written about extensively last year during and leading up to the big blizzard bust last March. Perhaps you were not paying attention. I do know what I am talking about for my area, I have not moved in 55 years. Don't know much about Westchester. The actual number of snowstorms even in NYC in March over 10 inches is quite limited and was well documented right here. Go ask Uncle W.

You just said, "We don't get big snowstorms in March" to Anthony, who lives in NYC. But NYC does get big snowstorms in March. As evidenced by the widespread 8-12" that fell on 3/18/17. As evidenced by the 20" snow pack in early March 2015. As evidenced by the dual 3-6/4-8" events in March 2013. As evidenced by the 10" snowstorm in Central Park on 3/2/09.

March averages more snow than December. Know your facts.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, nzucker said:

You just said, "We don't get big snowstorms in March" to Anthony, who lives in NYC. But NYC does get big snowstorms in March. As evidenced by the widespread 8-12" that fell on 3/18/17. As evidenced by the 20" snow pack in early March 2015. As evidenced by the dual 3-6/4-8" events in March 2013. As evidenced by the 10" snowstorm in Central Park on 3/2/09.

March averages more snow than December. Know your facts.

You are not addressing the issue. Maybe I should have stated "big snow accumulations" we do get big storms in March, just not big snowstorms. Please go back and read Anthony's posts after that March event, as he was quite angry and disappointed. Don't you remember? The snowpack in March 2015 wasn't from one storm. It was early March and cold, so there was snow on the ground IIRC. In fact, there were no big snows all winter in 2015, let alone March! Remember the big blizzard bust in Jan that year? 6- 7 inches when progged to get 2 feet? And every storm that year for me was 5 or under, except for the early March storm, which was a little more. But it was not a huge storm. We must be living in different worlds. Anthony was livid at how badly last March busted!

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, nzucker said:

You just said, "We don't get big snowstorms in March" to Anthony, who lives in NYC. But NYC does get big snowstorms in March. As evidenced by the widespread 8-12" that fell on 3/18/17. As evidenced by the 20" snow pack in early March 2015. As evidenced by the dual 3-6/4-8" events in March 2013. As evidenced by the 10" snowstorm in Central Park on 3/2/09.

March averages more snow than December. Know your facts.

Has March had more blizzards of over 10 inches than December? I don't know, but I'm willing to bet the answer is no.....just in my lifetime I can remember Boxing Day, and Dec 2003 was 14 inches IIRC, Dec 95 had a big one ( may have been around 8 ). None of those March storms were anything close to ten inches in my region, which is the SI region. Northern Bronx is kinda far from here, but yeah it is part of the city. I'll give you that. This isn't a courtroom. In general my observations are correct. And what is considered a big snowstorm? I think we could agree under 10 inches is not big ( 10 was a big deal in the 70's, not so much now )

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

You are not addressing the issue. Maybe I should have stated "big snow accumulations" we do get big storms in March, just not big snowstorms. Please go back and read Anthony's posts after that March event, as he was quite angry and disappointed. Don't you remember? The snowpack in March 2015 wasn't from one storm. It was early March and cold, so there was snow on the ground IIRC. In fact, there were no big snows all winter in 2015, let alone March! Remember the big blizzard bust in Jan that year? 6- 7 inches when progged to get 2 feet? And every storm that year for me was 5 or under, except for the early March storm, which was a little more. But it was not a huge storm. We must be living in different worlds. Anthony was livid at how badly last March busted!

Well Central Park got 4.5" on 3/1/15 and 7.5" on 3/5/15. Snowpack peaked at 19".

Yes, I remember Jan 26 2015...we only had 6.5" in Westchester on a forecast of 2ft. Central Park had like 10" though.

Also, your argument doesn't hold a lot of water because the pattern depicted is an unusual one with a -5SD -NAO block.

[Cfa]

2 hours ago, nzucker said:

You just said, "We don't get big snowstorms in March" to Anthony, who lives in NYC. But NYC does get big snowstorms in March. As evidenced by the widespread 8-12" that fell on 3/18/17. As evidenced by the 20" snow pack in early March 2015. As evidenced by the dual 3-6/4-8" events in March 2013. As evidenced by the 10" snowstorm in Central Park on 3/2/09.

March averages more snow than December. Know your facts.

Not in the city....

NYC - 4.3” in Dec and 3.9” in Mar

LGA - 4.8” in Dec and 4.4” in Mar

JFK - 4.2” in Dec and 3.5” in Mar

Essentially the same, but still. And we all know it can snow in March, but expectations should be realistic (this applies to Dec-Feb as well), even in this era of excess snowfall.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Well Central Park got 4.5" on 3/1/15 and 7.5" on 3/5/15. Snowpack peaked at 19".

Yes, I remember Jan 26 2015...we only had 6.5" in Westchester on a forecast of 2ft. Central Park had like 10" though.

Also, your argument doesn't hold a lot of water because the pattern depicted is an unusual one with a -5SD -NAO block.

Listen, I hope you guys are right. It's been a boring winter since Jan 4th. Im not optimistic, but if I knew the future I'd give you the lottery numbers ( well I would keep them myself TBH ). I'll be cheering on every storm chance. And I'm not unhappy with 3-6 inch storms. I just don't think we will see a KU type event. They aren't real common anyway, March or not. Now you are a fair distance north of here and you get more snow in marginal situations than I do here; I'm too far north for when the coast sees the most, and too far south for when northern areas see the most; the Snowicaine was a good example; the local press reported us as 8 inches ( though parts of nearby Edison recorded 12-13 ). Better than the NJ coast, but a disappointment as was that whole winter here ( which would have been considered good if we hadn't come up short on every single storm. even if short meant 8-12 inches, considering a few miles south recorded some 76 inches or more that year ) and hey, I like your info here, don't get the wrong impression....

[Isotherm]

The 10-day window of Feb 29-Mar 10 produces more 6"+ snow events in NYC than any 10 day period from Dec 1-Jan 20, except ties Dec 20-30.

So Feb 29-Mar 10 is a snowy period climatologically; to assert otherwise is patently false.

 

[weatherpruf]

21 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

The 10-day window of Feb 29-Mar 10 produces more 6"+ snow events in NYC than any 10 day period from Dec 1-Jan 20, except ties Dec 20-30.

So Feb 29-Mar 10 is a snowy period climatologically; to assert otherwise is patently false.

 

10 inches or more. March doesn't have a lot of them. I've read that here numerous times, and I have not seen many in 55 years. We discussed this extensively last March before and after the big bust for a lot of the area. Pro Mets weighed in. I am not a meteorologist. I'm a social scientist. So were these folks lying or what? 6 inches is not a big snowstorm. We might get that tomorrow and there isn't even a whole lot of interest. The assertion was that March is not a favorable MONTH for big snowstorms. SO now people are cherry picking the first ten days, when, even there, we have not had many storms over ten inches. I've been around since 1962, and while I admit prior to around 1970 I don't remember much, I'm pretty good after that. The only big one I remember is 93, and that was....10 inches. Mixed with rain and sleet. ANd last I checked, I am solidly in the NYC metro area, with SI being literally across a river from me. If I have missed a storm, and if I have been misinformed by folks right here, who have degrees in the stuff, I accept the correction. I did not pick up these ideas on my own, I read them right here.

[uncle W]

March 6" snowfalls or greater...

Biggest snowfalls
21.0" 3/12-14/1888
18.1" 3/7-8/1941
14.5" 3/3-4/1960
14.5" 3/1-2/1914
12.0" 3/15-16/1896
11.8" 3/20-21/1958
11.6" 3/18-19/1956
10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896
..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949

..8.6" 3/5/1981

..8.3" 3/1-2/2009

..8.0" 3/18-19/1892

..7.7" 3/6-7 1915

..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005

..7.6" 3/6-7/1916

..7.6" 3/14/2017

..7.5" 3/5/2015

..7.3" 3/6-7/1923

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

..6.7" 3/4-5/1917

..6.7" 3/16-17/1956

..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968

..6.5" 3/5/1902

..6.2" 3/19/1992

..6.0" 3/6-7/1870

..6.0" 3/19/1890

..6.0" 3/10/1907

..6.0" 3/15/1906

[weatherpruf]

17 minutes ago, uncle W said:

March 6" snowfalls or greater...

Biggest snowfalls
21.0" 3/12-14/1888
18.1" 3/7-8/1941
14.5" 3/3-4/1960
14.5" 3/1-2/1914
12.0" 3/15-16/1896
11.8" 3/20-21/1958
11.6" 3/18-19/1956
10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896
..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949

..8.6" 3/5/1981

..8.3" 3/1-2/2009

..8.0" 3/18-19/1892

..7.7" 3/6-7 1915

..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005

..7.6" 3/6-7/1916

..7.6" 3/14/2017

..7.5" 3/5/2015

..7.3" 3/6-7/1923

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

..6.7" 3/4-5/1917

..6.7" 3/16-17/1956

..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968

..6.5" 3/5/1902

..6.2" 3/19/1992

..6.0" 3/6-7/1870

..6.0" 3/19/1890

..6.0" 3/10/1907

..6.0" 3/15/1906

Thank you Unc. I'm sure i read the stats from you before, and you talked about how few storms over 10 inches there have been in March. Just 8 in over a hundred years. And as for the other ones, some of those storms were not that widespread, didn't stick much to roads, were slushy etc. In my neck of the woods, the March 09 storm was 5 inches. Since I am a neighbor to SI, I will assume it was around the same ( though there can be some significant differences even over a short distance ). I think you have proven my point; don't look to March for big snowstorms. I wonder how many of these youngsters were around in the 80's when we'd be out on the bay flounder fishing in early March and my vegetable garden already had cabbage, broccoli and peas planted. I never asserted March snowfall never happened or couldn't in the future. But if the past is any guide, there aren't many over 10. Hell, I was around for the April 82 storm. Now that was a heckuva storm, and was a big one for that era, maybe you remember the total ( I believe it was still less than 10 in my area )

[Rtd208]

Current temp is down to 37 here. Picked up 0.15" of rain for the day.

[ncforecaster89]

Hi uncle W.  Great post regarding the NYC climatological snowfall record for March!  I have been working on similar research for the city of Boston. It has been a very ardeous task, given that I've had to look through and tally up the data from each monthly record going back 127 years.  

Was wondering if there's any easier way to ascertain and compile the data, that I may be unaware of?  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Thank you Unc. I'm sure i read the stats from you before, and you talked about how few storms over 10 inches there have been in March. Just 8 in over a hundred years. And as for the other ones, some of those storms were not that widespread, didn't stick much to roads, were slushy etc. In my neck of the woods, the March 09 storm was 5 inches. Since I am a neighbor to SI, I will assume it was around the same ( though there can be some significant differences even over a short distance ). I think you have proven my point; don't look to March for big snowstorms. I wonder how many of these youngsters were around in the 80's when we'd be out on the bay flounder fishing in early March and my vegetable garden already had cabbage, broccoli and peas planted. I never asserted March snowfall never happened or couldn't in the future. But if the past is any guide, there aren't many over 10. Hell, I was around for the April 82 storm. Now that was a heckuva storm, and was a big one for that era, maybe you remember the total ( I believe it was still less than 10 in my area )

Your a horrendous Gardner if your planting any vegetables in early March.

And as far as larger snow falls there aren’t that many period over 10”. It’s not just a March thing. And the not widespread or slushy thing? How can you even begin to prove that. I wouldn’t even bother but the “proves my point” statement necessitated it.

[Rtd208]

Temp has been dropping steadily all night, now down to 32 here.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or 13degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.3.  Should be  +7.2 by the 25th.

[Rtd208]

Temps dropped nicely overnight, current temp is 28

[donsutherland1]

Following the passage of a cold front yesterday afternoon, the region is now covered by a seasonably cold air mass. Even as the air mass is not exceptionally cold, it should be sufficiently cold to allow for a snowstorm to bring accumulating snow to a large part of the region.

Despite winter’s brief reappearance, a number of very warm days lie ahead next week. The potential exists for record high readings. In fact, the 2/17 0z GFS MEX MOS is suggesting that February 20 and February 21 could see high temperatures of 70° or above. The only consecutive days with such warmth in February occurred on February 23-24, 1985. As with this February, February 1985 also experienced super high MJO amplitudes for a significant part of the month.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/16 38.4° (4.3° above normal)
2/20 39.2°-40.4° (2/16 estimate: 39.3°-40.5°)
2/28 40.6°-43.2° (2/16 estimate: 40.1°-42.7°)

The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°.

Through February 16, February 2018’s monthly mean temperature is highly competitive with that of the two warmest Februaries on record.

2/1-16 Average Temperature:

2012: 39.4° (Monthly Average: 40.9°, 2nd warmest on record)
2017: 36.1° (Monthly Average: 41.6°, warmest on record)
2018: 38.4°

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 78% (2/16 estimate: 77%). The probability of a record warm February is approximately 50%.

[bluewave]

The models continue to trend stronger with the ridge for next week. The most recent runs have a record breaking 587 dm for the area. Previous February record was 581 dm. Last February Newark registered the second warmest February temperature on record at 74 degrees. The all time February record for Newark was 76 degrees in 1949. The highs this week will depend on how much sun we get and timing of the frontal passages.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said:

I find the upcoming warm-up very concerning. It seems to be proof of future weather and climate shifting to come. Hard to not feel unsettled. 

Two points:

1. An extreme synoptic setup will allow for the abnormal warmth.

2. Ongoing climate change has increased the probability of such warmth in NYC (especially extreme warmth). For example, the statistical probabilities associated with high temperatures of 60° or above and 70° or above in February were 2.5% and 0.15% respectively for the 1961-90 baseline. For the 1981-10 baseline, those respective probabilities had increased to 3.7% and 0.25%. For the 30 most recent years, those respective probabilities have increased further to 3.9% and 0.29%. So, since the 1961-90 baseline, the probability of a February high temperature of 60° or above has increased more than 50% while the probability of a February high temperature of 70° or above has nearly doubled.

I used the 1961-90 baseline as the starting point, as the City already had a well-established urban footprint.

[Rtd208]

Temp has gone up pretty quickly here this morning, currently 35 here.

[uncle W]

8 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi uncle W.  Great post regarding the NYC climatological snowfall record for March!  I have been working on similar research for the city of Boston. It has been a very ardeous task, given that I've had to look through and tally up the data from each monthly record going back 127 years.  

Was wondering if there's any easier way to ascertain and compile the data, that I may be unaware of?  

here are some of my links to past weather...Boston included...I've been keeping records for NYC weather since the early 1960's so a lot of my research was done many years ago...I used to go to the weather bureau in Manhattan and go over the official books...now they are in Upton NY...they might as well be in Boston that far away...

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ma0770

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_finish=0.1933526659132916

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The models continue to trend stronger with the ridge for next week. The most recent runs have a record breaking 587 dm for the area. Previous February record was 581 dm. Last February Newark registered the second warmest February temperature on record at 74 degrees. The all time February record for Newark was 76 degrees in 1949. The highs this week will depend on how much sun we get and timing of the frontal passages.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes it is concerning; pointing out a few dates in the past doesn't hide the fact that we've had more warm anomalies and closer together in time than in the past.

[EastonSN+]

The EPS trended weaker with the upcoming blocking while the GEFS trended WAY stronger. 

Both are showing a slightly negative EPO in March.

Anyone can correct me if they disagree, but wouldn't we want to stay away from the extreme blocking the GEFS shows?

[weatherpruf]

8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your a horrendous Gardner if your planting any vegetables in early March.

And as far as larger snow falls there aren’t that many period over 10”. It’s not just a March thing. And the not widespread or slushy thing? How can you even begin to prove that. I wouldn’t even bother but the “proves my point” statement necessitated it.

You could plant in early March in the 80's in CNJ. Peas can go in the ground and survive a freeze. Beans, gourds, and nightshade familes need hot wether; not so brassicae cole crops. Now I have people saying there aren't many storms over ten inches at all, let alone March. SMH!You do realize this doesn't negate my point ( I won't say argument, because the facts are really not subject to argument ).