AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Hey Don, it looks like the Euro brings 582dm 500mb heights to NYC in its last two runs, and 588dm to DC. 0z had a 594dm ridge off the SE coast. Do you have data on records? I think a run at 80 degrees could happen if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today will likely see the temperature soar into the 60s across parts of the area. A few locations could challenge their daily record high temperatures. Daily records for select locations are: Albany: 55°, 2006 Bridgeport: 60°, 1954 Islip: 57°, 1984 New Haven: 58°, 1954 New York City: …JFK: 62°, 1949 …LGA: 74°, 1949 …NYC: 73°. 1949 Newark: 76°, 1949 Poughkeepsie: 66°, 1954 Westhampton: 55°, 2005 White Plains: 67°, 1954 With the probability of February’s having a mean temperature of 40.0° or above and some of the guidance suggesting the potential of a snowfall across at least portions of the area Saturday into Sunday, some snowfall information for February cases where the monthly mean temperature was 40° or above follow. Monthly snowfall: 1954 0.5” 1984 0.2” (March: 11.9”) 1991 9.1” 1997 3.8” 1998 None (March: 5.0”) 2002 Trace 2012 0.2” 2017 9.4” (warmest February on record with a mean temperature of 41.6°; March: 9.7”) Mean: 2.9” Median: 0.4” <1”: 63% cases 1” or more: 38% cases 2” or more: 63% cases 4” or more: 25% cases 6” or more: 25% cases 8” or more: 25% cases 10” or more: No cases 6” or greater snowstorms in February: 2/26-27/1991 8.9” (AO-, PNA+, MJO in Phase 7) 2/9/2017 9.4” (AO-, PNA+, MJO in Phase 7) Mean Snowfall for the following March: 3.6” Median March Snowfall: 1.0” 6” or greater snowstorms in the following March: 3/8-9/1984 6.9” (AO-/PNA+ MJO Phase 8) 3/13-14/2017 7.6” (AO+/PNA+ MJO Phase 4) Currently, the guidance is split on whether or not the NYC metro area will pick up an accumulating snow. Most aggressive were the 2/15 0z runs of the ECMWF, GGEM, RGEM and NAM. The guidance showing little or no snowfall was the 2/15 0z GFS. Right now, I’m discounting the GFS. This appears to be the kind of system that can bring 2”-4” snow across much of the region with locally higher amounts. The areas most likely to see the largest accumulations would probably be north and west of New York City. This thinking represents a blend among the guidance excluding the GFS. The 6z GFS moved more into line with this other guidance. With blocking forecast to develop in the closing week of February, there could be a window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowfall during the first two weeks in March, even if February 2018 winds up becoming among the warmest February cases on record. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/14 36.7° (2.7° above normal) 2/15 37.6°-38.0° (2/14 estimate: 37.6°-38.0°) 2/20 39.0°-40.5° (2/14 estimate: 37.7°-39.5°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 76% (2/14 estimate: 73%). If it snows 4 inches this weekend in CNJ I will eat a bug ( I consider shrimp and lobster bugs though, from an evolutionary standpoint ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: If it snows 4 inches this weekend in CNJ I will eat a bug ( I consider shrimp and lobster bugs though, from an evolutionary standpoint ) The ECMWF notwithstanding, I suspect that the City and nearby suburbs will see 2” while northern and western suburbs will see 4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Holy Cow! Next 8 days leaps to an average of 50degs., or 16degs. AN. Month to date is already. +2.7. Should be +7.5 by the 23rd. Somebody verify this please! That's incredible, we'd be challenging last year's record breaking February. How often do we break a monthly record the following year for that same month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Hey Don, it looks like the Euro brings 582dm 500mb heights to NYC in its last two runs, and 588dm to DC. 0z had a 594dm ridge off the SE coast. Do you have data on records? I think a run at 80 degrees could happen if it verifies. If the EPS mean verified for next Tuesday, then it would be a new 500 mb height record from the Midatlantic and the Northeast for the entire month of February. 0z had a 585 dm height near OKX and 588 dm near IAD. The previous February record in both locations is 581 dm. We already set a new record for January last month. But on the day of the maximum ridge expansion, we didn't get enough sun to reach the max temp potential. If we had, we may have seen 70 degree readings for January near the monthly records. So the approach of monthly records next week will probably come down to the timing of the frontal passage and how much sun we get. Monthly 500 mb records link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/ 0z EPS forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 too bad this big warmth is during the week. Would be great to have a 70 degree day on a weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Still looks like a dirty warm sector we may not realize what could have been given the heights much like Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 EPS and GEFS steady, with the GEFS most aggressive with the blocking. Major difference is the EPS wants to push the EPO moderately positive and the GEFS wants to keep it weakly negative. In a nutshell, GEFS is better on all fronts W/R/T a better snowfall period setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: If it snows 4 inches this weekend in CNJ I will eat a bug ( I consider shrimp and lobster bugs though, from an evolutionary standpoint ) FYI, below are the maps from Mount Holly and Upton, as I'm not sure which NWS office you fall under. My current thinking is more conservative than what is shown on the maps i.e., <1" at ISP, around 2" in NYC and 1"-2" in PHL (and similar amounts for Trenton and Freehold). It appears that both maps may have given greater weight to the 0z ECMWF than some of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The models are a little overzealous with dumping the lower geo-potential heights in the W USA. A few points: [1] CHI 200HPA ostensibly indicates the propagation of u-div signal through phase 8 and already going into phase 1. The RMM diagrams are lagging here. Further, the convective signal becomes less coherent, but the upper level signal does not as significantly. [2] The coupled alterations with poleward -AAM propagation and GWO/MJO contemporaneous circulation into lower-Mr state, E-Hemisphere based forcing, will initiate a jet retraction process. [3] Late December-early Jan we cycled through a deamplified 8-1-2, and the W US signal was not as suppressed as modeled. [4] The -PNA troughing should retract sufficiently such that heights rises in the Central US and fall near the East Coast, due to shorter wavelengths. This is the MJO Z500 composite anomalies for phase 2 in March. The NATL will be wrong due to the severe stratospheric downwell, but I expect this appearance in the W USA. If we retract the trough sufficiently, a West Coast based trough is favorable in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 todays record is 73 set in 1949...2/28/49 had 9" of snow...shows how things can change in a hurry...The ao forecast isn't as bullish on going negative as yesterdays and the day before...now it falls to neutral and rebounds positive again...then goes negative but one member stays quite positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 9 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: EPS and GEFS steady, with the GEFS most aggressive with the blocking. Major difference is the EPS wants to push the EPO moderately positive and the GEFS wants to keep it weakly negative. In a nutshell, GEFS is better on all fronts W/R/T a better snowfall period setup. Blocking is getting weaker and weaker though, it keeps getting delayed and the Pacific will remain crappy. Not good if you're hoping for a March miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Blocking is getting weaker and weaker though, it keeps getting delayed and the Pacific will remain crappy. Not good if you're hoping for a March miracle. Been waiting for a better pattern for over a month; I don't think it's gonna happen. Let's hope we pull something off this weekend, because I think that may be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Blocking is getting weaker and weaker though, it keeps getting delayed and the Pacific will remain crappy. Not good if you're hoping for a March miracle. we've seen this the last 5 years often-what looks like a great blocking pattern either doesnt materialize at all or is much weaker than originally progged...weak blocking with a +EPO won't cut it in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Currently 60 degrees in Manhattan at 9PM on February 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 28 minutes ago, Cfa said: Currently 60 degrees in Manhattan at 9PM on February 15th. Yeah it was pretty amazing, I’m just leaving the city now. Back to 47 degree wantagh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Blocking is getting weaker and weaker though, it keeps getting delayed and the Pacific will remain crappy. Not good if you're hoping for a March miracle. I thought according to you....we're going to get 80s next week and no snow for the rest of the frbruary. Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I thought according to you....we're going to get 80s next week and no snow for the rest of the frbruary. Wrong I never said 80s, I still think 75+ is on the table and as far as how much snow we get, that remains to be seen. Caution with using the Nam, globals like CMC and GFS are much weaker with this. I'd still go no higher than 1-3 for the immediate metro and coast. The wind direction will be rough on those boundary temps, which will hang around 32-33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or 14degs. AN. Month to date already +3.8. Should be +7.3 by the 24th. Used 35/57 for today's reverse action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 With yesterday’s AO standing at a preliminary +1.709, the AO average for winter 2017-18 has gone slightly positive to +0.010. The AO is forecast to go negative next week, but there remains a distinct possibility that the timing for a strongly negative AO could be pushed back to near 3/1. Yesterday’s high temperature was 61° in New York City. To date, the monthly mean temperature is running 1.4° above that of last February, which would go on to become the warmest February on record. If some of the guidance is right, February 2018 could make a run at that record. Below are figures for the mean temperature through February 15 for 2012, 2017, and 2018. February 1-15 Mean Temperatures: 2012: 39.3° (February average: 40.9° 2nd warmest on record) 2017: 36.4° (February average: 41.6° warmest on record) 2018: 37.8° Currently, the guidance remains in large disagreement concerning the snowfall that appears likely late Saturday into Sunday. The ECMWF, 3km and 12 km NAM, and RGEM suggest the potential for 4” or more snow even in NYC. The GFS is still showing less than 2” for the City. Given the agreement among the other guidance, my thinking is now that NYC itself will see 2”-4” snow, which will extend out to Islip. 1”-3” will fall from New Brunswick to New York City while the northern and western suburbs (locations including Armonk, Newburgh, and Poughkeepsie) will likely see 3”-6” of snow. Following the storm, record warmth is possible next week. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/15 37.8° (2/15 estimate: 37.6°-38.0°; 3.8° above normal) 2/20 39.3°-40.5° (2/15 estimate: 39.0°-40.5°) 2/28 40.1°-42.7° The warmest February on record is February 2017 with a monthly mean temperature of 41.6°. Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 77% (2/15 estimate: 76%). The probability of a record warm February has increased to approximately 45%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I have it at +7.3 by the 24th., using the GFSx. And dig these highs for the remainder of the month from the OP: 59 50 47 45 59. Somehow from 1869-1940 Feb. was actually the coldest month. I have no idea why this crossover with Jan. happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Surprisingly, the GEFS and EPS have flipped. The EPS is now stronger with the blocking, as well as a return to a negative EPO, while the GEFS went weaker with the blocking with a strongly positive EPO. EPS has been the most steady (not saying its correct), while the GEFS has jumped to extremes. I defer to Isotherm, Don, Bluewave, Snowgoose etc for what this means for the sub forum moving through the rest of winter. Adding MJO. Looks to go through phases 8 through 2 on both guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Somehow from 1869-1940 Feb. was actually the coldest month. I have no idea why this crossover with Jan. happened. winter is getting shorter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I never said 80s, I still think 75+ is on the table and as far as how much snow we get, that remains to be seen. Caution with using the Nam, globals like CMC and GFS are much weaker with this. I'd still go no higher than 1-3 for the immediate metro and coast. The wind direction will be rough on those boundary temps, which will hang around 32-33F. Snoski vs upton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Tomorrow and Sunday will be our 10th and 11th days with measurable precip so far this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 We are on our way to the 2nd month in a row with a record WAR/SE ridge. These 500 mb heights are just ridiculous for the winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Snoski vs upton... I don't mind being wrong if we get more snowfall, for once the models have not gone the wrong direction. Still think the warmth next week is the big story this month though, those heights are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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