February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[dWave]

48 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

Anyone look at newest Euro n lesser extent (of course) GFS for sat!?

Nope, but the Weather Channel forecast now shows 3" - 5" of snow Sat night. 

?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

27 minutes ago, dWave said:

Nope, but the Weather Channel forecast now shows 3" - 5" of snow Sat night. 

?

It’s sad. This board that is. If there is any sort of warm weather on the way there are plenty of responses. But with the potential of a warning level event that could finally impact our entire sub form, nada......

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Up here on the CT coast March 2001 was ok with a general 4 to 8 inches, however could have been much more.

Well here in NJ schools were closed for two days waiting for 2 feet of snow, and we didn't get an inch of sleet...

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Nope, but the Weather Channel forecast now shows 3" - 5" of snow Sat night. 

?

The Euro was double that. Let's see what happens in tonight's 0z runs. Hopefully, a snowstorm will be realized in what could be a narrow window of opportunity. A sizable snowstorm can occur even in a very warm February.

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s sad. This board that is. If there is any sort of warm weather on the way there are plenty of responses. But with the potential of a warning level event that could finally impact our entire sub form, nada......

I agree that something sizable could happen, but without blocking or much to slow down the pattern, it will be reliant on good timing to have a phase, and for the ridge/trough axes to be in the right place for it to be snow. In a couple of days we should know more and nail things down. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I agree that something sizable could happen, but without blocking or much to slow down the pattern, it will be reliant on good timing to have a phase, and for the ridge/trough axes to be in the right place for it to be snow. In a couple of days we should know more and nail things down. 

We have had a a solid run of thread the needles the last few years. This definitly qualifies. If it’s still there in similar form Thursday I’m all in.  

[mophstymeo01]

It’s sad. This board that is. If there is any sort of warm weather on the way there are plenty of responses. But with the potential of a warning level event that could finally impact our entire sub form, nada......

I can only speak for myself, but my lack of enthusiasm comes simply from being disappointed by too many promising events that fizzled or cut. I'll get excited on Friday morning/afternoon.

What we really need is Hot Hand to come back and tell us it won't snow.


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[CIK62]

Next 8 days up to an average of 45degs., or a solid 10degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.2.  Should be  +5.3 by the 22nd.

The 'Next 45 Days' looks ugly.

[donsutherland1]

After a brief shot of cooler than normal air, more milder than normal conditions lie ahead today through Friday. However, another shot of cooler air could arrive in time for the weekend.

The possibility of at least some accumulating snow exists for Saturday into Sunday. Areas to the north and west of the City may have the highest probability of seeing the largest amount of accumulating snow. The 0z GGEM suggested that area of heaviest snow would extend across northern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island. The GFS is farther north with only a minor accumulation in that area.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/13 36.1° (2.2° above normal)
2/15 37.6°-38.0° (2/13 estimate: 37.4°-38.2°)
2/20 37.7°-39.5° (2/13 estimate: 37.7°-39.8°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 73% (2/13 estimate: 72%). The probability of February's having a mean temperature of 40.0° or above has risen to 50%.

[LurkerBoy]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

After a brief shot of cooler than normal air, more milder than normal conditions lie ahead today through Friday. However, another shot of cooler air could arrive in time for the weekend.

The possibility of at least some accumulating snow exists for Saturday into Sunday. Areas to the north and west of the City may have the highest probability of seeing the largest amount of accumulating snow. The 0z GGEM suggested that area of heaviest snow would extend across northern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island. The GFS is farther north with only a minor accumulation in that area.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/13 36.1° (2.2° above normal)
2/15 37.6°-38.0° (2/13 estimate: 37.4°-38.2°)
2/20 37.7°-39.5° (2/13 estimate: 37.7°-39.8°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 73% (2/13 estimate: 72%). The probability of February's having a mean temperature of 40.0° or above has risen to 50%.

Do you think we approach 70 upstate like some are saying next Wed? 

[qg_omega]

A lot of ice this morning

[NJwx85]

Sneaky ice out there. My Wife took a tumble down our front steps this morning. Solid tenth of an inch or so.

Needed a freezing rain advisory.

[SnowGoose69]

I compared the setup next week yesterday to February 24 1985 and the main difference is that the ridge axis sets up too far west so it would enable east and southeast flow to develop everywhere which would likely result in temps not getting out of the 60s.  If the ridge axis sets up more east putting the area into deep SSW flow 74-78 would not be out of the question away from water 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said:

Do you think we approach 70 upstate like some are saying next Wed? 

Although the 2/13 12z and 2/14 0z ECMWF runs suggested such a possibility, the pattern seems to suggest that it won't get quite as warm. The GFS has consistently been cooler. But the details can change between now and Wednesday.

[uncle W]

tomorrow's record high is 73 set in 1949...six weeks before I was born...the second warmest is 69 in 1954...two weeks after my wife was born...

[EastonSN+]

Teleconnections about the same as yesterday. However, the epo is trending more positive in the LR. 

GEFS still stronger with the blocking.

Cannot see us getting shut out the rest if the winter with string blocking in place, regardless of the EPO and PNA state.

Adding MJO, which now looks good on the GEFS as well as EPS.

AO, NAO and MJO = possibly snowy

EPO and PNA = possibly warm

Interesting time ahead.

Blizzard of March 1960 had a negative PNA.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The models have temps in the mid to upper 60's for tomorrow. The GFS MOS is 67 and the Euro 68 for Newark.

NEWARK              
 KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    2/14/2018  0600 UTC                      
 DT /FEB  14      /FEB  15                /FEB  16             /     
 HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 
 X/N              51          44          67          52       60    

 

Looks way to warm for the island on a SW flow with near shore water temps in the upper 30s. One thing the late December Early January cold did long term was destroy the record water temps. This should act to mute any warmth unless the flow is WSW or W. There is nothing worse then spring gloom when the city west is sunny and 70. 

[purduewx80]

those temps are entirely reasonable as low-level flow is W to W/SW. obviously there will be a PM seabreeze, so those temps on LI will not last long and are likely to occur midday.

[JetsPens87]

21 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wouldn't such strong AO and NAO blocking keep the track under us regardless of the PNA? Deep cold is out but 40 degrees then dropping to 32 and snow from a slowed system beneath us I would think would be the favored track. Maybe I am mistaken just wondering.

Yup Bluewave pointed it out perfectly.

In addition to that the risk we run in this pattern is low pressure where you typically want high pressures pressing in over southeast Canada. Most storms could pull a return flow from the SE or ESE. However the 50/50 low can aid in ensuring mid level cooling. This is all evident in a nutshell with the upcoming potential this weekend.

Clearly shows that we can and theoretically will produce something in this pattern but the key is assistance from the Atlantic now.

[MJO812]

The pattern in the long range at the end of this month looks great. We are going to  a big storm to start off March

[bluewave]

The 55 so far at Newark is another day that beats forecast guidance.

[NJwx85]

12z ECWMF is an all out torch for most of next week, peaking on Thursday with widespread 70's.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

12z ECWMF is an all out torch for most of next week, peaking on Thursday with widespread 70's.

IMO this is the big story for the month if it verifies. Depending on wind direction, cloud cover and our propensity to exceed forecast highs, we could be looking at 75-80 temps for some areas.

If we were able to hit mid 60s a few days back near midnight, then we could definitely hit these temps. Sun angle starting to get a lot higher too.

[dWave]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

IMO this is the big story for the month if it verifies. Depending on wind direction, cloud cover and our propensity to exceed forecast highs, we could be looking at 75-80 temps for some areas.

If we were able to hit mid 60s a few days back near midnight, then we could definitely hit these temps. Sun angle starting to get a lot higher too.

Today ended a couple degrees above most forecasts. Id think alot would have to line up right to achieve those temps verbatim, but plausible to me seeing how we tend to overacheive in these situations.  I believe all time Feb record highs around here are mid 70s range.

[Rtd208]

 

[doncat]

51 minutes ago, dWave said:

Today ended a couple degrees above most forecasts. Id think alot would have to line up right to achieve those temps verbatim, but plausible to me seeing how we tend to overacheive in these situations.  I believe all time Feb record highs around here are mid 70s range.

Highest Feb temp at my station past 30 years is 73°, set just last year and 1997, both during the last week.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

 

The pattern depicted is a KU pattern

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The pattern depicted is a KU pattern

The question though, is for whom? 

[CIK62]

Holy Cow!  Next 8 days leaps to an average of 50degs., or 16degs. AN.   50 is normal for April 10th.

Month to date is already. +2.7.  Should be  +7.5 by the 23rd.

Somebody verify this please!

[donsutherland1]

Today will likely see the temperature soar into the 60s across parts of the area. A few locations could challenge their daily record high temperatures. Daily records for select locations are:

Albany: 55°, 2006
Bridgeport: 60°, 1954
Islip: 57°, 1984
New Haven: 58°, 1954
New York City:
…JFK: 62°, 1949
…LGA: 74°, 1949
…NYC: 73°. 1949
Newark: 76°, 1949
Poughkeepsie: 66°, 1954
Westhampton: 55°, 2005
White Plains: 67°, 1954

With the probability of February’s having a mean temperature of 40.0° or above and some of the guidance suggesting the potential of a snowfall across at least portions of the area Saturday into Sunday, some snowfall information for February cases where the monthly mean temperature was 40° or above follow.

Monthly snowfall:
1954 0.5”
1984 0.2” (March: 11.9”)
1991 9.1”
1997 3.8”
1998 None (March: 5.0”)
2002 Trace
2012 0.2”
2017 9.4” (warmest February on record with a mean temperature of 41.6°; March: 9.7”)

Mean: 2.9”
Median: 0.4”
<1”: 63% cases
1” or more: 38% cases
2” or more: 63% cases
4” or more: 25% cases
6” or more: 25% cases
8” or more: 25% cases
10” or more: No cases

6” or greater snowstorms in February:
2/26-27/1991 8.9” (AO-, PNA+, MJO in Phase 7)
2/9/2017 9.4” (AO-, PNA+, MJO in Phase 7)

Mean Snowfall for the following March: 3.6”
Median March Snowfall: 1.0”

6” or greater snowstorms in the following March:
3/8-9/1984 6.9” (AO-/PNA+ MJO Phase 8)
3/13-14/2017 7.6” (AO+/PNA+ MJO Phase 4)

Currently, the guidance is split on whether or not the NYC metro area will pick up an accumulating snow. Most aggressive were the 2/15 0z runs of the ECMWF, GGEM, RGEM and NAM. The guidance showing little or no snowfall was the 2/15 0z GFS. Right now, I’m discounting the GFS. This appears to be the kind of system that can bring 2”-4” snow across much of the region with locally higher amounts. The areas most likely to see the largest accumulations would probably be north and west of New York City. This thinking represents a blend among the guidance excluding the GFS. The 6z GFS moved more into line with this other guidance.

With blocking forecast to develop in the closing week of February, there could be a window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowfall during the first two weeks in March, even if February 2018 winds up becoming among the warmest February cases on record.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/14 36.7° (2.7° above normal)
2/15 37.6°-38.0° (2/14 estimate: 37.6°-38.0°)
2/20 39.0°-40.5° (2/14 estimate: 37.7°-39.5°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 76% (2/14 estimate: 73%).