February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[CIK62]

For the rest of the month I can see maybe 3 BN days.     I can see about 7 days with a +10 or better coming up.  Maybe a record +30 day too.   This month is gonna wind up at +6 at this rate.

[Rtd208]

So true.

 

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

You're moving the goal posts by introducing climate change into the topic.

The period of above average snowfall events may not be over. My argument is simply that eventually a correction is coming and that what you perceive as the new normal is not such.

It connects most the dots in the best way though.  If you dont use CC then there are two different sets of changes you have to explain.  Besides the higher snowfall totals along the coast right now, the other one is DC's decaying snowfall climatology.  Back in the 80s and prior, Dulles used to outdo NYC in about half their winters in snowfall.  Now it rarely ever happens anymore.    So what we're seeing is decaying snowfall averages to our south.  If you follow the conjecture that I was using the other day, you can explain it by saying that our coastal plain is in an intermediate stage right now, where higher RH has yielded bigger events but eventually it'll all catch up and our coastal regions will be the first to experience the decaying DC snowfall climatology; that line is slowly moving north.

First we are seeing the higher RH benefits of being further east but eventually the warming will catch up to us from the south- I give it until 2050 for that to happen and then our snowfall climatology will resemble where DC has decayed to now.  It also bolsters my conjecture that the storms that were going out to sea back then are now coming closer to the coast, because a stronger SE Ridge would not only move the storm track further to the west, but also further north.  Based on that, the storms that are hitting the area right now would have fringed us back then (and perhaps hit the DC area directly before passing well to the south and east of us.)

 

[winterwx21]

I see the GGEM tonight is still showing a snow event for saturday. I assume the model is off its rocker right now since nothing else is showing this, but you never know for sure. Obviously it would require tremendous timing since it's only a very brief cold shot at the end of the week.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

It connects most the dots in the best way though.  If you dont use CC then there are two different sets of changes you have to explain.  Besides the higher snowfall totals along the coast right now, the other one is DC's decaying snowfall climatology.  Back in the 80s and prior, Dulles used to outdo NYC in about half their winters in snowfall.  Now it rarely ever happens anymore.    So what we're seeing is decaying snowfall averages to our south.  If you follow the conjecture that I was using the other day, you can explain it by saying that our coastal plain is in an intermediate stage right now, where higher RH has yielded bigger events but eventually it'll all catch up and our coastal regions will be the first to experience the decaying DC snowfall climatology; that line is slowly moving north.

First we are seeing the higher RH benefits of being further east but eventually the warming will catch up to us from the south- I give it until 2050 for that to happen and then our snowfall climatology will resemble where DC has decayed to now.  It also bolsters my conjecture that the storms that were going out to sea back then are now coming closer to the coast, because a stronger SE Ridge would not only move the storm track further to the west, but also further north.  Based on that, the storms that are hitting the area right now would have fringed us back then (and perhaps hit the DC area directly before passing well to the south and east of us.)

 

Interesting theory and I agree the handwriting is on the wall for snowy winters in this region, and who knows when that will commence, but long stretches of warmth almost every winter now are an obvious concern....

[Juliancolton]

It's a freaking travesty that with crystal clear skies and dead calm wind under a 1042 mb high in mid-February, I can only get as cold as 20F.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days continuing to average 43degs., or 9degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.6.  Should be  +5.1 by the 21st.

Next 5-Day period which is BN is centered on Mar. 09 now.  Like a dog chasing its own tail.  

What we are having is a 2 Week Winter and a 10 Week Jan. Thaw.

We are headed for all time warm, back to back Febs., I should think.

Yes, the EURO WEEKLIES have no BN periods---just keeps getting closer to NORMAL W/O getting there.

[Rtd208]

LOL

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

0z EPS says here comes the retrogression. East based blocking around February 22nd becomes more west based by the beginning of March. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Probabaly the stronger block I’ve ever seen modeled.. if we can’t cash in something’s wrongs lol

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That is looking like it will be the strongest March -NAO/-AO block since 2013 if it verifies that way. Models beginning to show the downwelling from the current strat warm. They may very well need more time to catch up with such an extreme event.

Not much happened in March 2013 either snow wise, a messy wet 4-5 incher that was already down to 3 by the time it ended. Never really stuck to roads. Over the years I have been extremely down on March storms, which usually don't pan out.

[Rtd208]

 

[gravitylover]

9 hours ago, Paragon said:

They're also forgetting that Brooklyn and Queens were basically rural back then with farmland and such.  Heck so was northern Manhattan.

My grandfather used to talk about how he would go to the farms to get fruits and veggies because it was so much less expensive than the markets in Brooklyn when he was a kid during WWI. He said that if he helped milk the cows in the morning before school they'd let him have a bottle of milk and sometimes get some meat too on his way home from school. 

[Rtd208]

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days continuing to average 43degs., or 9degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.6.  Should be  +5.1 by the 21st.

Next 5-Day period which is BN is centered on Mar. 09 now.  Like a dog chasing its own tail.  

What we are having is a 2 Week Winter and a 10 Week Jan. Thaw.

We are headed for all time warm, back to back Febs., I should think.

Yes, the EURO WEEKLIES have no BN periods---just keeps getting closer to NORMAL W/O getting there.

I believe I called this 2 weeks ago when I said it was time to change the narrative on this winter.

 

Ironically, in westchester there were 3 1-2 inch snow events when the city had rain (first on xmas). Each was followed by cold air allowing ground cover for several days.

 

It wasnt much, but it gave our winter a different feel up here.

 

 

[weatherlogix]

16 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

As per the topic of the day below is the number of storms 6 inches or above in 10 day periods in NYC. I found it interesting that the first 10 days in March had more such events than the last 10 days of February. Also a weirder anomaly there have been 6 such events from March 31st to April 9th and only 1 from March 21 to the 30th. It's just one spot that historically hasn't measured very well anyway, but then again what place does, but I still found it interesting.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say the majority of those March storms were prior to 1970

[qg_omega]

56 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Probabaly the stronger block I’ve ever seen modeled.. if we can’t cash in something’s wrongs lol

only issue is that this pushes the PV into Russia and there is no cold under our block with the -PNA.  Maybe the far interior can get some snow but its a warm rain pattern for us despite the -NAO.  

[EastonSN+]

Extremely interesting March incoming.

EPS and GEFS are now in agreement with all teleconnections with the exception of the epo, where GEFS keeps it slightly negative (EPS slightly positive). Also, GEFS is a little more aggressive with the extent of the negative phases of the AO and NAO. To counter this, both have the PNA as negative, rising towards March to slightly negative.

We will find out soon enough if the NAO and AO can override the pacific to allow a storm to slow and explode off the coast for snow. Will be interesting regardless.

Also Interesting is the split in the weather community, approx. Half saying a period of snow while the other stating warm and snowless.

Does anyone have analogs for similar teleconnections?

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday’s high temperature in Central Park was 62°, marking the second consecutive day with a high temperature of 60° or above. As a result, NYC has now seen three consecutive years during which there were at least two consecutive 60° maximum temperatures. Last year’s record warm February featured a stretch of three consecutive 60° or above readings.

Yesterday also saw a number of record high temperatures tied or broken in the region.

Bridgeport: 54° (tied record set in 2009)
New York City:
…JFK: 58° (tied record set in 1966)
…LGA: 63° (old record: 58°, 1984)
…NYC: 62° (tied record set in 1999)

Looking farther ahead, it remains uncertain whether the AO will go strongly negative for a sustained period of time later this month. Even as the EPS is indicating the development of such blocking just after 2/20, it should be noted that the EPS missed badly over a similar timeframe with the current AO+ regime. Therefore, it is possible that any strong blocking could hold off until near the start of March, should it develop at all. If so, the prospect of February’s having a mean temperature of 40.0° or above in New York City could increase markedly. Currently, the probability of a 40.0° or above February mean temperature is near 45%. The latest EPS weekly guidance supports such an outcome.

Such February warmth has been uncommon in New York City’s climate record, which extends back to 1869. Since that time, there have been just 8 cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in NYC, meaning that such warmth has occurred about once every 18.6 years. However, the incidence of such warmth has been skewed toward recent decades. Since 1990, such warmth has occurred once every approximately 4.7 years. 75% of those cases have occurred from 1990 or later; 38% from 2000 or later; and 25% from 2010 or later. The warmest February on record had a mean temperature of 41.6° (2017).

In terms of snowfall prospects, shortening wave lengths make the PNA less relevant to significant (6” or greater snowfall) snowstorms in the NYC area beyond mid-February. For example, during the 2/20-3/10/1950-2017 period, NYC has seen 12 6” or greater snowstorms. 67% occurred when the AO was negative, but 50% occurred with a PNA+. Both of NYC’s 10” or greater snowstorms during that timeframe occurred with an AO-/PNA- pattern.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/12 36.5° (2.6° above normal)
2/15 37.4°-38.2° (2/12 estimate: 37.2°-38.4°)
2/20 37.7°-39.8° (2/12 estimate: 37.8°-40.2°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 72% (2/12 estimate: 65%).

For now, winter 2017-18 is hibernating. It still remains likely that there will be a period of wintry weather (possibly of 2 weeks’ duration) before winter breaks for good. Early to mid-March might currently offer the most likely timing, though one can’t rule out a transition toward such a pattern in the closing days of February. Uncertainty remains higher than usual given recent poor performance by the ensembles in forecasting the major teleconnections.

[NJwx85]

37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Extremely interesting March incoming.

EPS and GEFS are now in agreement with all teleconnections with the exception of the epo, where GEFS keeps it slightly negative (EPS slightly positive). Also, GEFS is a little more aggressive with the extent of the negative phases of the AO and NAO. To counter this, both have the PNA as negative, rising towards March to slightly negative.

We will find out soon enough if the NAO and AO can override the pacific to allow a storm to slow and explode off the coast for snow. Will be interesting regardless.

Also Interesting is the split in the weather community, approx. Half saying a period of snow while the other stating warm and snowless.

Does anyone have analogs for similar teleconnections?

For the record, I am on board with a chance for a storm during the first week of March. My posts yesterday were focused on long term probability, not specific years or events.

[MJO812]

John Homenuk ( Earthlight )

 

"We have a coupled troposphere and stratosphere now in the midst of a record breaking SSW. The easterly wind reversal at 10mb looks record breaking and so does the anomalous temperature rise. As a ridge anomaly shifts south from the Barents Sea and multiple +heat flux events continue into the polar stratosphere, the potential exists for an extremely anomalous high latitude blocking event on the Atlantic side of the high latitudes towards the end of the month.

 

 

 

The actual impacts to our area remain undetermined. I remain confident we will have opportunities for significant snow. But I think there is a larger, more broad pattern change occurring here, with a near-decadal flip back toward a Atlantic blocking pattern possible. We saw a similar event about 9 years ago. Watching the Pacific reshuffle has been impressive on the ensemble means as well.

 

 

 

To back up for a moment, I guess what I am saying is that despite the confidence in the Atlantic blocking, things are still evolving in the Pacific. I think we should be careful with that as we may be fighting a bit if a trough establishes in the Western US. But the size and scope of potential Atlantic blocking tells me we should have a few shots at big winter storms. "

 

[uncle W]

if these forecasts come true winter will return with either a big snowstorm or cold wave or both...

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday’s high temperature in Central Park was 62°, marking the second consecutive day with a high temperature of 60° or above. As a result, NYC has now seen three consecutive years during which there were at least two consecutive 60° maximum temperatures. Last year’s record warm February featured a stretch of three consecutive 60° or above readings.

Yesterday also saw a number of record high temperatures tied or broken in the region.

Bridgeport: 54° (tied record set in 2009)
New York City:
…JFK: 58° (tied record set in 1966)
…LGA: 63° (old record: 58°, 1984)
…NYC: 62° (tied record set in 1999)

Looking farther ahead, it remains uncertain whether the AO will go strongly negative for a sustained period of time later this month. Even as the EPS is indicating the development of such blocking just after 2/20, it should be noted that the EPS missed badly over a similar timeframe with the current AO+ regime. Therefore, it is possible that any strong blocking could hold off until near the start of March, should it develop at all. If so, the prospect of February’s having a mean temperature of 40.0° or above in New York City could increase markedly. Currently, the probability of a 40.0° or above February mean temperature is near 45%. The latest EPS weekly guidance supports such an outcome.

Such February warmth has been uncommon in New York City’s climate record, which extends back to 1869. Since that time, there have been just 8 cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in NYC, meaning that such warmth has occurred about once every 18.6 years. However, the incidence of such warmth has been skewed toward recent decades. Since 1990, such warmth has occurred once every approximately 4.7 years. 75% of those cases have occurred from 1990 or later; 38% from 2000 or later; and 25% from 2010 or later. The warmest February on record had a mean temperature of 41.6° (2017).

In terms of snowfall prospects, shortening wave lengths make the PNA less relevant to significant (6” or greater snowfall) snowstorms in the NYC area beyond mid-February. For example, during the 2/20-3/10/1950-2017 period, NYC has seen 12 6” or greater snowstorms. 67% occurred when the AO was negative, but 50% occurred with a PNA+. Both of NYC’s 10” or greater snowstorms during that timeframe occurred with an AO-/PNA- pattern.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/12 36.5° (2.6° above normal)
2/15 37.4°-38.2° (2/12 estimate: 37.2°-38.4°)
2/20 37.7°-39.8° (2/12 estimate: 37.8°-40.2°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 72% (2/12 estimate: 65%).

For now, winter 2017-18 is hibernating. It still remains likely that there will be a period of wintry weather (possibly of 2 weeks’ duration) before winter breaks for good. Early to mid-March might currently offer the most likely timing, though one can’t rule out a transition toward such a pattern in the closing days of February. Uncertainty remains higher than usual given recent poor performance by the ensembles in forecasting the major teleconnections.

Don, nice post. A steady increase in winter 60 degree or warmer days has become the new normal around here.

 

 

 

 

 

[doncat]

Pressure topped off here at 30.85" this am.

[CIK62]

Of the next 16 daily highs, 9 will be 50+ according to the GFS. 

[mikem81]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

if these forecasts come true winter will return with either a big snowstorm or cold wave or both...

With -PNA, the trough may develop too far west. We shall see. IF we had this -AO/-NAO in January when the PNA was positive, it could have been amazing

[JetsPens87]

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

With -PNA, the trough may develop too far west. We shall see. IF we had this -AO/-NAO in January when the PNA was positive, it could have been amazing

Yup just when the Atlantic finally looks like it may go favorable after how many seasons (predominantly)... the Pac goes to sh*take mushrooms.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Yup just when the Atlantic finally looks like it may go favorable after how many seasons (predominantly)... the Pac goes to sh*take mushrooms.

Wouldn't such strong AO and NAO blocking keep the track under us regardless of the PNA? Deep cold is out but 40 degrees then dropping to 32 and snow from a slowed system beneath us I would think would be the favored track. Maybe I am mistaken just wondering.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We'll be in business if we get a far enough west into Canada blocking ridge retrogression. La Nina's and -NAO's often have a trough in the West and a -PNA. The key is to get just enough of a retrogression to get the PNA to neutral or slightly positive. 

Day 15 EPS

 

Where you want the ridge and trough axis to align in early March

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models are also notoriously bad with storm details under retrograding blocks during La Ninas. Just think of all the model mayhem in January 2000 and March 2001. Not to say that those will be our outcomes this time, but still very difficult for models. Hopefully, this block makes it far enough west and a trough gets carved out underneath. But it may take a few sacrificial storms to cut or hug in order to pull the trough in under the block. Obviously, the most perfect La Nina blocking retrogression was late Dec 2010. But every event is different from the others.

Up here on the CT coast March 2001 was ok with a general 4 to 8 inches, however could have been much more.

[The Plowsman]

Anyone look at newest Euro n lesser extent (of course) GFS for sat!?