weatherlogix Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Almost your typical Spring backdoor pattern early next week on the Euro with upper 60's, lower 70's over interior NJ while LI is stuck in the 40's and lower 50's. Looks sunny too. It's going to feel like early May. A welcomed addition to this miserable last 5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: A welcomed addition to this miserable last 5 weeks. I've always felt that if it's not going to snow it might as well at least be warm. Nothing worse than bitterly cold weather and no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Eps has the NAO and AO tanking by the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 As per the topic of the day below is the number of storms 6 inches or above in 10 day periods in NYC. I found it interesting that the first 10 days in March had more such events than the last 10 days of February. Also a weirder anomaly there have been 6 such events from March 31st to April 9th and only 1 from March 21 to the 30th. It's just one spot that historically hasn't measured very well anyway, but then again what place does, but I still found it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps has the NAO and AO tanking by the 17th. It's a very east based -NAO/-AO block near Scandinavia and the Kara by the 22nd. So the -PNA/SE ridge is still running the show then. We need that block to retrograde further west and raise the PNA. It could take until the first week of March to show improvements here since Feb only has 28 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I never bought a cold and stormy February. The writing has been on the wall since the third week of January or so. We thawed out after the big arctic outbreak in late December - early January and for the most part haven't looked back since. That's not true at all. All indications were for a big change by late in the 2nd week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 In the long range I'm sold on Atlantic blocking but I'm not sold on cold or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: That's not true at all. All indications were for a big change by late in the 2nd week of Feb. The MJO getting stuck in Phase 7 was alot of the reason for the bust....most guidance had it going straight into 8-1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: In the long range in sold on Atlantic blocking but I'm not sold on cold or snow. I'm not. I've seen this head fake with phantom -NAO's for the last 5 years...it often does not move up in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: I'm not. I've seen this head fake with phantom -NAO's for the last 5 years...it often does not move up in time. This is different. The SSW has been thinking this isn't phantom. I'm just not sold on cold and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: This is different. The SSW has been thinking this isn't phantom. I'm just not sold on cold and stormy. that's true. We could get blocking with a crappy airmass...especially in March. Too bad this SSWE was not a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that's true. We could get blocking with a crappy airmass...especially in March. Too bad this SSWE was not a month ago. Earthlight and others are excited about the end of this month into March. Hope he is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Apparently GEFS has a west based NAO, EPS east and GEPS in between. I still have a hard time believing the area gets shut out from a moderate to heavy event from Jan 5 till end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 56 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Apparently GEFS has a west based NAO, EPS east and GEPS in between. I still have a hard time believing the area gets shut out from a moderate to heavy event from Jan 5 till end of March. Based on climo and history, probability is I believe higher for a decent event than nothing happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Well the numbers dissagree. The first week of March is definitly still peak snow climatology. I’m 26.8” on a 28” average. It will take an epic fail of a second half for me not to make average. Even 98 couldn’t pull off a snowless second half. It ain't peak snow time in CNJ and it has not been in my 55 years....it snows in March, yes, but it can also be quite tame and mild, or warm and windy, or more likely, blustery. Could be different out where you are. Even the 93 superstorm mixed here leaving us with ten inches of frozen over slush. Which was pretty amazing in itself, and I'd love to see that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 I would think even if we don't get the snow that with the potential blocking that may develop we should at least see slower moving and more potent storm systems. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: ok lets look at it this way : according to this table below snow storms past Feb 25 would be considered more then common What percentage is considered rare? Answer Term Numerical rate Percentage rate Common 1 in 10 – 1 in 100 10% – 1% Uncommon 1 in 100 – 1 in 1000 0.1% to 1% Rare 1 in 1000 – 1 in 10,000 0.01% to 0.1% Very rare Less than 1 in 10,000 Less than 0.01% I think that refers to epidemiology though, right? I would say snow in March is not uncommon, but it isn't really common to see a big storm. What's the rate of busts? See, it snowed here for two days in March 2001, and it accumulated about half an inch...I forget what we had last march here, but it was well shy of what was forecast. A nasty day of sleet for the most part. But not even close to crippling...the typical March storm I have seen is a mix of sleet, snow and rain, sometimes accumulating 4-5 inches. Or it snows 5 inches but is already melted to 3 by the time it ends ( March 2013 ). Or like March 2004 I think it was it mostly accumulates on grass....cold storms with deep snow have not happened much in March in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Are all of these post February 25th events or are these seasonal totals? Secondly, you can always find a statistical anomaly when you're examining historical data. That's why it's better to work with averages rather than specific time periods and events. Don't know how it works in meteorology, but in social science we often use the median as the better measure; a mean income is meaningless if a few people in town are multimillionaires or there is a very rich part of town; likewise a very poor neighborhood has the opposite effect. So what is the median snowfall in March, that might tell us more. Don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Don't know how it works in meteorology, but in social science we often use the median as the better measure; a mean income is meaningless if a few people in town are multimillionaires or there is a very rich part of town; likewise a very poor neighborhood has the opposite effect. So what is the median snowfall in March, that might tell us more. Don't know. historical data is based on an extremely low sample size of 150 years - consider this - the earth is estimated to be 4.54 billion years old - think about it ……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: historical data is based on an extremely low sample size of 150 years - consider this - the earth is estimated to be 4.54 billion years old - think about it ……. Well yes, and human beings are relative late comers to the scene, so there's that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: As per the topic of the day below is the number of storms 6 inches or above in 10 day periods in NYC. I found it interesting that the first 10 days in March had more such events than the last 10 days of February. Also a weirder anomaly there have been 6 such events from March 31st to April 9th and only 1 from March 21 to the 30th. It's just one spot that historically hasn't measured very well anyway, but then again what place does, but I still found it interesting. I wonder if good sized storms being more common in March than late Feb. has to do with the atmosphere being warmer, therefore able to hold more moisture, colliding with dramatically colder, but not really cold, airmasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Don't expect snow with such a crappy Pacific pattern, it won't matter how good the Atlantic becomes, not for the coastal areas anyway. By then we'll be into March with a mediocre cold air mass that may give us a cold rain coastal or two. But if you enjoy rain and activity, then they'll be plenty more of it over the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 most of the big storms in March were wet snow events...the big storms that were near blizzards (blizzards by todays standards) are... Blizzard of 1888...21"+... strong winds...Temps in the low teens...started as rain... March 3-4, 1960...strong winds...huge drifts...temps mid to low 20's to teens... March 18-19, 1956...heavy snow with temps in the mid 20's... April 6th, 1982...heavy snow with temps in the low 20's... some other cold March snowstorms... March 2, 2009...8" with temps in the 20's... March 8-9th, 1984...7" with temps in the 20's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, uncle W said: most of the big storms in March were wet snow events...the big storms that were near blizzards (blizzards by todays standards) are... Blizzard of 1888...21"+... strong winds...Temps in the low teens...started as rain... March 3-4, 1960...strong winds...huge drifts...temps mid to low 20's to teens... March 18-19, 1956...heavy snow with temps in the mid 20's... April 6th, 1982...heavy snow with temps in the low 20's... some other cold March snowstorms... March 2, 2009...8" with temps in the 20's... March 8-9th, 1984...7" with temps in the 20's... As I've noted, that 84 storm must have missed CNJ, cause I sure don't remember it; the boats were in the water and flounder fishing had commenced. A late storm would have shut the fish off; that happened in April 82, where the late snow drove the fish from Raritan bay deep into the lower Raritan river to take advantage of the warmer shallows where sunlight made a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Don't expect snow with such a crappy Pacific pattern, it won't matter how good the Atlantic becomes, not for the coastal areas anyway. By then we'll be into March with a mediocre cold air mass that may give us a cold rain coastal or two. But if you enjoy rain and activity, then they'll be plenty more of it over the next several weeks. I've pretty much given up on it ski, but hope that something happens anyway. Am ready for cold rain and swollen rivers making trout fishing difficult.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 7 hours ago, NJwx85 said: When you consider what snow removal equipment consisted of late in the 19th century anything more than an inch or two could have been considered crippling. Similar to the impact that an inch or two has in the deep South today. They're also forgetting that Brooklyn and Queens were basically rural back then with farmland and such. Heck so was northern Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 hours ago, uncle W said: most of the big storms in March were wet snow events...the big storms that were near blizzards (blizzards by todays standards) are... Blizzard of 1888...21"+... strong winds...Temps in the low teens...started as rain... March 3-4, 1960...strong winds...huge drifts...temps mid to low 20's to teens... March 18-19, 1956...heavy snow with temps in the mid 20's... April 6th, 1982...heavy snow with temps in the low 20's... some other cold March snowstorms... March 2, 2009...8" with temps in the 20's... March 8-9th, 1984...7" with temps in the 20's... I dont think we've had an areawide 6+ snowstorm after March 15th since April 1982. That one in the early 90s doesn't count because it was only a couple of inches at JFK and changed to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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