February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[WeatherFeen2000]

Cmc has a snowstorm for Sunday u keep sleeping! Watch it happen

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Allot of premature towel throwing today. It’s mid February. Is there a warm period on the way? Most likely yes. Enjoy the warmth next week. After that it’s game time. We haven’t had a true negative NAO in a long time. (During the peak of snow climatology which runs from late December to early March) 

In my opinion the peak of snow climatology in NYC runs from the Saturday before Christmas until the Saturday after President's Day. Once you get much past February 25th or so the chances of a significant accumulating snowstorm in NYC declines appreciably. There are exceptions to every rule, as we saw last March, however that storm favored the interior by a wide margin.

February is pretty much a done deal and should finish well above normal. March could be on the cold and snowy side, but I wouldn't bank on reaching seasonal averages, especially for those of us stuck in the snow hole that has become interior Northern NJ.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Cmc has a snowstorm for Sunday u keep sleeping! Watch it happen

The surface is above freezing for the Southeastern 2/3rds of the subforum and it falls Saturday afternoon, not Sunday.

I'm also not sure that precip amounts warrant this potential being labeled as a "storm".

The 12z Euro doesn't even have a surface reflection for that time period.

[Stormlover74]

36 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

On quick review (and I used over 5" of rain):

Feb 1981 - T

Dec 83 -1.6"

Dec 1986 - .6"

Jan 1990- 1.8"

Dec 1992 - .4"

 

Not as many as I thought because there were only 12 months total of 5" or more of rain from Dec-Mar

Jan and Feb of 98. Becoming a super nino like month

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah 4.19" here so far and 0.6" snow.

Same out on LI. We haven't seen this high a ratio of rain to snow in a while during February.

ISP...4.18" rain so far....snowfall....0.2"

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

In my opinion the peak of snow climatology in NYC runs from the Saturday before Christmas until the Saturday after President's Day. Once you get much past February 25th or so the chances of a significant accumulating snowstorm in NYC declines appreciably. There are exceptions to every rule, as we saw last March, however that storm favored the interior by a wide margin.

February is pretty much a done deal and should finish well above normal. March could be on the cold and snowy side, but I wouldn't bank on reaching seasonal averages, especially for those of us stuck in the snow hole that has become interior Northern NJ.

Well the numbers dissagree. The first week of March is definitly still peak snow climatology. I’m 26.8” on a 28” average. It will take an epic fail of a second half for me not to make average. Even 98 couldn’t pull off a snowless second half. 

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Well the numbers dissagree. The first week of March is definitly still peak snow climatology. I’m 26.8” on a 28” average. It will take an epic fail of a second half for me not to make average. Even 98 couldn’t pull off a snowless second half. 

You live on Long Island, that's why I said especially interior NNJ. Places to my Southeast have seen more snow this year, but they also average less so it doesn't take as much to reach seasonal averages.

If you're so confident that the first week of March is part of the snow peak, I challenge you to list the 6"+ snowfalls at Central Park during the first ten days of March in the last 50 years.

[NJwx85]

Almost your typical Spring backdoor pattern early next week on the Euro with upper 60's, lower 70's over interior NJ while LI is stuck in the 40's and lower 50's.

Looks sunny too. It's going to feel like early May.

 

[NEG NAO]

45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

In my opinion the peak of snow climatology in NYC runs from the Saturday before Christmas until the Saturday after President's Day. Once you get much past February 25th or so the chances of a significant accumulating snowstorm in NYC declines appreciably. There are exceptions to every rule, as we saw last March, however that storm favored the interior by a wide margin.

February is pretty much a done deal and should finish well above normal. March could be on the cold and snowy side, but I wouldn't bank on reaching seasonal averages, especially for those of us stuck in the snow hole that has become interior Northern NJ.

There have been 191 snowstorms in NYC 6 inches or greater. 39  included dates past your date of Feb 25. 16 before your date of December 18th. Snow storms past Feb. 25 are not a rarity in NYC.

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

There have been 191 snowstorms in NYC 6 inches or greater. 39  included dates past your date of Feb 25. 16 before your date of December 18th. Snow storms past Feb. 25 are not a rarity in NYC.

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf

That's one way to look at it, however I prefer to say that since 1869 it's only happened 39 times. That correlates to a snowstorm of 6"+ or greater in NYC just greater than one out of every four years or 26.17% of the time. 

Secondly, I specifically stated March 1-10, which doesn't include February 25-29th systems.

If you want to call an event that happens on average 2-3 times per decade common then I guess that's your opinion, but it doesn't mean I have to agree.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

That's one way to look at it, however I prefer to say that since 1869 it's only happened 39 times. That correlates to a snowstorm of 6"+ or greater in NYC just greater than one out of every four years or 26.17% of the time. 

Secondly, I specifically stated March 1-10, which doesn't include February 25-29th systems.

If you want to call an event that happens on average 2-3 times per decade common then I guess that's your opinion, but it doesn't mean I have to agree.

ok lets look at it this way : according to this table below snow storms past Feb 25 would be considered more then common

What percentage is considered rare?

Answer

Term	Numerical rate	Percentage rate
Common	1 in 10 – 1 in 100	10% – 1%
Uncommon	1 in 100 – 1 in 1000	0.1% to 1%
Rare	1 in 1000 – 1 in 10,000	0.01% to 0.1%
Very rare	Less than 1 in 10,000	Less than 0.01%

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I haven't seen his posts. He did so well for Dec-Jan. Everyone got burnt with February.

 

Thank you , yes I verified very well in Nov /Dec/Jan , the 2 snow events on the coast and with the early FEB idea.

 

And then I totally blew up on my FEB call. Total miss.

 

The upper latitude blocking you now see on the GEFS at 500 that starts on FEB 25- 28 was what I believed would start on FEB 10 -so it killed my month and the call.

 

I do like the idea of a significant block taking shape up over Greenland during the last week in FEB , the event that is occurring now is very warm and long at 10 mb which makes it a significant event. I hate the phrase delayed but not denied , it`s another name for bust.

 

But blocking will occur and then we have see what that means for early March. 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

NYC has been lucky with March 6" or greater snowstorms since 2015. There have only been 10 years since 1950 that were able to produce a 6" or more event. Hopefully, some of that luck will rub off again for this March.

NYC 6" or more March snowstorm years

2017...2015...2009...1993...1992...1984...1967....1960...1958...1956

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

ok lets look at it this way : according to this table below snow storms past Feb 25 would be considered more then common

What percentage is considered rare?

Answer

Term	Numerical rate	Percentage rate
Common	1 in 10 – 1 in 100	10% – 1%
Uncommon	1 in 100 – 1 in 1000	0.1% to 1%
Rare	1 in 1000 – 1 in 10,000	0.01% to 0.1%
Very rare	Less than 1 in 10,000	Less than 0.01%

Again, you're welcome to form whatever opinion you want.

I don't personally care what a chart from google considers common or uncommon. 

The fact of the matter is, if someone lived 100 years in NYC they should expect to see a snowstorm of 6" or greater after February 25th 26-27 times.

Run the same numbers for the month of February and I think you'll find the percentages are much greater.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC has been lucky with March 6" or greater snowstorms since 2015. There have only been 10 years since 1950 that were able to produce a 6" or more event. Hopefully, some of that luck will rub off again for this March.

NYC 6" or more March snowstorm years

2017...2015...2009...1993...1992...1984...1967....1960...1958...1956

According to @NEG NAO they are common place

It fits right in with the theory that people that live near the coast have become increasingly spoiled over the last fifteen years. It's to the point where long term climo has been scrapped and major anomalies have been accepted as the "new norm". 

People are in for a rude awakening. 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

According to @NEG NAO they are common place

It fits right in with the theory that people that live near the coast have become increasingly spoiled over the last fifteen years. It's to the point where long term climo has been scrapped and major anomalies have been accepted as the "new norm". 

People are in for a rude awakening. 

Guess they were more spoiled back in the 1890's and 1900's:

Warning Criteria Snowstorms (6 Inches or More) By Decade --- 1869 3 --1870's 14 ---1880's 8 ---1890's 21 ---1900's 20 ---1910's 13 ---1920's 14 ---1930's 11--- 1940's 12--- 1950's 8--- 1960's 16--- 1970's 6--- 1980's 5--- 1990's 11 ---2000's 13--- 2010's 16
 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Guess they were more spoiled back in the 1890's and 1900's:

Warning Criteria Snowstorms (6 Inches or More) By Decade --- 1869 3 --1870's 14 ---1880's 8 ---1890's 21 ---1900's 20 ---1910's 13 ---1920's 14 ---1930's 11--- 1940's 12--- 1950's 8--- 1960's 16--- 1970's 6--- 1980's 5--- 1990's 11 ---2000's 13--- 2010's 16
 

Are all of these post February 25th events or are these seasonal totals?

Secondly, you can always find a statistical anomaly when you're examining historical data. That's why it's better to work with averages rather than specific time periods and events.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Are all of these post February 25th events or are these seasonal totals?

Secondly, you can always find a statistical anomaly when you're examining historical data. That's why it's better to work with averages rather than specific time periods and events.

Do all of those decades total 39 storms ????

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Do all of those decades total 39 storms ????

Why would you post seasonal totals when the conversation specifically discussed post February 25th snowstorms?

And since you brought it up, yes those two decades saw an above average period which eventually corrected back to average. If anything, this strengthens my argument that the last two decades were indeed an anomaly and that an eventual correction back to average is coming. 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, weatherlogix said:

What would March 1960 be considered, with regards to the PNA?

Not sure. But if the maps (KU book) show a trough in the western us, its a negative PNA. Positive PNA is much more favorable, but with blocking snow can still occur

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Why would you post seasonal totals when the conversation specifically discussed post February 25th snowstorms?

And since you brought it up, yes those two decades saw an above average period which eventually corrected back to average. If anything, this strengthens my argument that the last two decades were indeed an anomaly and that an eventual correction back to average is coming. 

Because overall we have been spoiled during the last 2 decades  but I wanted to show that we are not as spoiled yet as the folks back in the 1890's and 1900's - and most of them probably didn't care anyways . I agree there COULD be some lean years ahead but these past 15 plus years have increased the overall averages for the most part - only thing we cannot be certain of is if the climate change will cause these averages to increase and we will continue too see above to much above average winters more often in the years ahead - no one can answer that one...……….

[EastonSN+]

Regarding March tri state area snowstorms, everyone is right.

Its not a favorable as Jan and Feb due to obvious known reasons such as longer days, warmer. Therefore, borderline events may not work out as they would have earlier in the season.

Larger storms (ku events) would generally work out the same in early to mid March as they would have earlier, as the ingredients (blocking, strong negative EPO, etc) will be present in each case. 6 to 12 inch non borderline storms same thing.

Therefore, IF strong NAO and AO blocking do occur, we can snow this March.

[gravitylover]

I bet they did care. At that point they'd be running short on stored and dried food, running low on firewood or coal for heat, it extended the mud season into planting season and would have made traveling difficult on muddy roads.

[uncle W]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC has been lucky with March 6" or greater snowstorms since 2015. There have only been 10 years since 1950 that were able to produce a 6" or more event. Hopefully, some of that luck will rub off again for this March.

NYC 6" or more March snowstorm years

2017...2015...2009...1993...1992...1984...1967....1960...1958...1956

March 1st 1968 had 5.5" plus the 1.1" from late 2/29 =6.6"...3/13/59 had 5.5"...3/5/81 had 8.6"...

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I bet they did care. At that point they'd be running short on stored and dried food, running low on firewood or coal for heat, it extended the mud season into planting season and would have made traveling difficult on muddy roads.

When you consider what snow removal equipment consisted of late in the 19th century anything more than an inch or two could have been considered crippling. Similar to the impact that an inch or two has in the deep South today.

[weatherlogix]

2 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Cmc has a snowstorm for Sunday u keep sleeping! Watch it happen

With a weak low exiting the VA coast moving just N of east? And an exiting high, easterly flow and no depth to the "cold air"?

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I bet they did care. At that point they'd be running short on stored and dried food, running low on firewood or coal for heat, it extended the mud season into planting season and would have made traveling difficult on muddy roads.

True and many of us would never be able to survive what they had to go thru …….

[uncle W]

daily pna/nao/ao

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

41 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

According to @NEG NAO they are common place

It fits right in with the theory that people that live near the coast have become increasingly spoiled over the last fifteen years. It's to the point where long term climo has been scrapped and major anomalies have been accepted as the "new norm". 

People are in for a rude awakening. 

This is a ridiculous comment. It’s completely possible we have seen a long term shift to a more bench mark track for winter storms due to increased offshore water temps. If that’s the case there is no “rude awakening” coming.

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Because overall we have been spoiled during the last 2 decades  but I wanted to show that we are not as spoiled yet as the folks back in the 1890's and 1900's - and most of them probably didn't care anyways . I agree there COULD be some lean years ahead but these past 15 plus years have increased the overall averages for the most part - only thing we cannot be certain of is if the climate change will cause these averages to increase and we will continue too see above to much above average winters more often in the years ahead - no one can answer that one...……….

You're moving the goal posts by introducing climate change into the topic.

The period of above average snowfall events may not be over. My argument is simply that eventually a correction is coming and that what you perceive as the new normal is not such.