Paragon Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 13 hours ago, uncle W said: it's been a dry winter so far but snowfall is above average in NYC...we are -3" for precipitation so far since Dec. 1st...+6" snowfall... sounds like the 60s to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Friday appears mostly out as a big event at the moment. GFS and CMC dont have much UKMET appears ever so slightly better maybe but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 You know the pattern is going to turn colder when -40C 850's start showing up around Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know the pattern is going to turn colder when -40C 850's start showing up around Hudson Bay. The EPS is probably going to end up wrong with that SE ridging. There have been continuous efforts in the longer range since December to bring that in when we have the -EPO and it hasn’t happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The EPS is probably going to end up wrong with that SE ridging. There have been continuous efforts in the longer range since December to bring that in when we have the -EPO and it hasn’t happened There`s no S/E ridge. The center of the height field is over the flemish cap. The EPS was all feedback , we followed all the corrections away over the last 10 days and it was a disaster which we saw. We had the trough back into the east around now from a week ago and that`s where it will stay on balance for the next 15 days. And prob for most of FEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I wish I could post all the EURO comparisons done away over the last 10 days for you guys to show you how awful the feedback issue is with the EPS , but my EURO images would get blocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I wish I could post all the EURO comparisons done away over the last 10 days for you guys to show you how awful the feedback issue is with the EPS , but my EURO images would get blocked. I had one saved i got from twitter, lemme see if i can grab it again. It was atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I had one saved i got from twitter, lemme see if i can grab it again. It was atrocious. Yeh the 11 to 15 vs the 1 to 5 It's still doing it in the 7 to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 15 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: I took this photo on Saturday at 3500 feet in the Catskills. Wow that's pretty shocking... BGM is running around 50% of normal snowfall to date, about 16" below normal. Another brutal winter for the interior. 2015-16 was the least snowy winter on record with only 20-25" in many areas. We have a house in Lake Como, PA, located in the far northeastern part of the state . There were some really snowy winters there when I was growing up such as 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96..since then, it's been slim pickings (aside from the 32" in March 2017). Really rough stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Most of the model errors over the last 10 days of forecasts have been a result of the near to record NPAC +552meter block. We have seen this with models since November as they have been playing catch-up with the strength and impact of these extreme blocks. So it will take them time to work out the downstream details with such an amplified pattern. It was the EPS forecast from the 2nd on from 10 days ago , in all of it`s 10 to 15 that were atrocious. Your 48 hour EPS is the result of the last trough W Canada, but shortly after that W Canada ridges up and the EURO OP and EPS kept wanting to jump the trough in the west. It has been an major bust . From the OP , here is the new 144 / BTW this should snow. VS it`s old day 10. This morning`s 168 EPS It`s old day 10 Here is the new day 3 and day 4 This is what it forecast 6 days ago Not awful , but not as dug in/ the rest were complete whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 On 1/30/2018 at 2:31 PM, bluewave said: You knew it was going to be a wild model ride this winter when the GFS missed the record cold in November following the 5 SD block in the Bering. It had a SE ridge where the Euro had our trough and record cold. It just takes the models time to correct which such a mega-amplified pattern. You and I say this every year, the EURO is so good in the EPAC and is just horrible on the E/C because of it`s feedback out west kicking up what`s a fallacy of a ridge. BTW / I love FEB. This should be another BN month with multiple snowfall events centered as we get deeper. There could be a cutter early in this pattern as it pulls back before dropping the hammer. The coldest 10 day period will be centered around the middle to late month but we have turned the corner and are now entering the 2nd half of winter. The cold is back and is prob here on balance for the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 29.4" on the season, last two winters out at the new place were both 43". I think we can surpass 40" again, but not sure about 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 49 minutes ago, nzucker said: Wow that's pretty shocking... BGM is running around 50% of normal snowfall to date, about 16" below normal. Another brutal winter for the interior. 2015-16 was the least snowy winter on record with only 20-25" in many areas. We have a house in Lake Como, PA, located in the far northeastern part of the state . There were some really snowy winters there when I was growing up such as 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96..since then, it's been slim pickings (aside from the 32" in March 2017). Really rough stretch. it's like climo has shifted...the coast routinely gets hammered and the interior skunked...look at last night-close to 9 inches on parts of eastern LI, nothing inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: 29.4" on the season, last two winters out at the new place were both 43". I think we can surpass 40" again, but not sure about 50" Amazes me that you're near 30" for the season out there on eastern LI, while I'm at 15" here just a few miles west of NYC. LI used to be the worst place in the tri-state for snow due to so much mixing, but in recent winters it has been the best place for snow. Something has changed tremendously and it's very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, nzucker said: Wow that's pretty shocking... BGM is running around 50% of normal snowfall to date, about 16" below normal. Another brutal winter for the interior. 2015-16 was the least snowy winter on record with only 20-25" in many areas. We have a house in Lake Como, PA, located in the far northeastern part of the state . There were some really snowy winters there when I was growing up such as 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96..since then, it's been slim pickings (aside from the 32" in March 2017). Really rough stretch. It hasn't been too bad here in the Mid HV considering in the last 15 yrs im averaging 5" above my longterm average but places further N & NW into MSV/BGM/ALB have been on a horrific streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Amazes me that you're near 30" for the season out there on eastern LI, while I'm at 15" here just a few miles west of NYC. LI used to be the worst place in the tri-state for snow due to so much mixing, but in recent winters it has been the best place for snow. Something has changed tremendously and it's very odd. Wow. To be fair, I'm actually located in West/Central LI. Suffolk County is massive. Eastern Suffolk is general east of Riverhead, and Central LI is from Commack to Riverhead. I am only 40 miles from Manhattan (which may make it even worse). Soon enough we will rain and you will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's like climo has shifted...the coast routinely gets hammered and the interior skunked...look at last night-close to 9 inches on parts of eastern LI, nothing inland Its almost like everything has shifted 50-100 miles E. Ive been in O.C for about 20 yrs now and very rarely remember getting fringed this often. You almost always expected NYC/LI to mix or even flip to rain now its a rarity. Most in the interior cringe if they hear "all snow" for the coast cause that usually spells trouble for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Parts of LI have averaged close to 40" the last 20 years. Most of NYC 32"+ during that period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, snywx said: Its almost like everything has shifted 50-100 miles E. Ive been in O.C for about 20 yrs now and very rarely remember getting fringed this often. You almost always expected NYC/LI to mix or even flip to rain now its a rarity. Most in the interior cringe if they hear "all snow" for the coast cause that usually spells trouble for the interior. snow to rain events have become very rare around here. In the 80's and 90's, almost every storm had some sort of rain or sleet component after an initial period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: snow to rain events have become very rare around here. In the 80's and 90's, almost every storm had some sort of rain or sleet component after an initial period of snow. What have you been averaging the last 15 yrs and what is your longterm average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, looks like a great February pattern ahead. One of the Euro weaknesses is too much of a trough that can show up at times over the Rockies. Nice twitter discussion below. The EPS also has issues handling orographic forcing over the Rockies when the flow is stronger than normal and a quasi-barotropic response w/ weaker standing planetary waves (I.e. an anomalous trough over the Rockies) often results beyond the medium range. 5:49 AM - 29 Jan 2018 Yeh , Doug had posted it away. This was a pretty good disco/disagreement away about how -EPO HP should exit through Montana in the center of the nation and spread east not dive SW with ridging out there. You know what side I was on ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, snywx said: What have you been averaging the last 15 yrs and what is your longterm average? BDR averages 28 inches long term. Most years have featured 40-60 inches outside of clunkers like 11-12 etc. If you look at local climo records here going back to 2000 one would think it's much snowier-average is closer to 35-40 inches a year vs the 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: BDR averages 28 inches long term. Most years have featured 40-60 inches outside of clunkers like 11-12 etc. If you look at local climo records here going back to 2000 one would think it's much snowier-average is closer to 35-40 inches a year vs the 28. In the last 15 or so years most along the immediate coast are prob +10" in comparison to their longterm averages. Up here on the other hand we are prob closer to 3-5" above our longterm averages. I know relatively speaking its still a small sample size but something has def shifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, nzucker said: Wow that's pretty shocking... BGM is running around 50% of normal snowfall to date, about 16" below normal. Another brutal winter for the interior. 2015-16 was the least snowy winter on record with only 20-25" in many areas. We have a house in Lake Como, PA, located in the far northeastern part of the state . There were some really snowy winters there when I was growing up such as 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96..since then, it's been slim pickings (aside from the 32" in March 2017). Really rough stretch. Last year was great for snow and 2013-14 as well as 2014-15 were above average. Many areas in northeastern Pa had over 30 inches in last March's snowstorm but this year has been cold but snow is well below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: BDR averages 28 inches long term. Most years have featured 40-60 inches outside of clunkers like 11-12 etc. If you look at local climo records here going back to 2000 one would think it's much snowier-average is closer to 35-40 inches a year vs the 28. Further to the above: BDR always under reports so the long term average should higher. We have only had 4 winters below 30 inches from and including the 2000 2001 season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Further to the above: BDR always under reports so the long term average should higher. We have only had 4 winters below 30 inches from and including the 2000 2001 season That goes without saying. Incredible run these last 2 decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Hi res reflects 500mb better imo...a lot of sweeping energy associated with this front, to just have snow showers imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Srefs focus on us on a wet solution in the 72-84hr time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Would make many on here very happy if the Euro control run holds the BM track for Sunday into Monday. That event is so suspect to me because of that GL-NNE low that tracks ahead of it Sunday morning. One it’s gonna kill our air mass by pumping up SSW flow ahead of it and it’s also likely to interfere in some manner in that 2nd low coming up the coast. I guess the good news is the GFS, which at this range may be handling that first northern low best is still getting snow in here from that southern low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 hours ago, ag3 said: Parts of LI have averaged close to 40" the last 20 years. Most of NYC 32"+ during that period as well. I have been at this location since 1995. For the 22 full winters since, we've averaged 39.6" per winter. Over the same time frame, Upton has averaged 40.3" If I get 48.5" of snow this winter, the 23 year average will tick up over 40". We've got 22" to go for that. After that, if it doesn't snow a flake for the next 7 winters, the 30 year average will be 30.7" I dare someone to go post that last bit in the MA forum. Just kidding....don't do it. Except for a couple of great winters, they've had it worse than State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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