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February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It seams as if some of our best storms are when the PNA is negative. Example PDII. If the blocking is strong enough it becomes an overrunning to coastal scenario. Also a storm forced off the coast with enough blocking could deepen and bring in cold air. 

You would need the -NAO to retrograde far enough west to bring the PNA up to neutral or positive to have a shot at a significant snowfall. Right now the NAO is very positive and should continue for a while longer. Hopefully, we get a window of opportunity like that in early March. A process like that takes time to occur.

 

nao_mrf_obs.gif.e46d5e98f5fd90dfe594759f987a25bc.gif

 

 

 

 

 

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Always interesting in that no matter how certain indeces appear currently and projected, you never  know what can eventually occur given certain combinations even if low probability.  Declaring winter weather s over for our area is premature at this point even with the current state of the pattern.  It is still mid February.  If this was mid March, then I would be much less hopeful. 

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33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There may be risk of such an outcome, but 2001-type case with a bigger storm is also possible should strong blocking finally develop—hopefully, with a more widespread snowfall than the March 2001 storm.

At least we wont get surprised anymore if we have another March bust, because of 2001 and also the storm last winter in March, everything needs to be just right to get a blockbuster storm in March.

 

March 2001 did still deliver 4-5" of snow here on the backside and just to our east and north got up to a foot.

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40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It seams as if some of our best storms are when the PNA is negative. Example PDII. If the blocking is strong enough it becomes an overrunning to coastal scenario. Also a storm forced off the coast with enough blocking could deepen and bring in cold air. 

that storm also came with a + nao

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45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Agreed and that would bring NYC almost to normal in the snowfall department for the season. 

We've had 22-25 inches of snow here, I dont know why Central Park is still stuck in the teens.  I dont even pay any attention to airport snowfall "totals" lol

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5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

At least we wont get surprised anymore if we have another March bust, because of 2001 and also the storm last winter in March, everything needs to be just right to get a blockbuster storm in March.

 

March 2001 did still deliver 4-5" of snow here on the backside and just to our east and north got up to a foot.

Last March delivered a blockbuster storm for the Western half of this sub-forum.

It's about the only example of a KU in recent memory that favored Western areas over the coast.

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56 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Every NAO is different apparently.  Just calling it Neg. with a certain magnitude does not tell the whole story.  Some are west based (good for us) and others east based, and too far away to do anything.  Well I think this is correct.  This one is east based.

If there are Neg NAO that are bad for us, there should be Pos NAO that are good for us- right? lol.

 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Last March delivered a blockbuster storm for the Western half of this sub-forum.

It's about the only example of a KU in recent memory that favored Western areas over the coast.

I think some of that might have had to do with it being in March, might have had a different outcome if it was on Jan 20th or something.

Long Island (even here in Nassau County) has had big storms in late March and April, but I dont believe the city itself has had a post March 20 6"+ snowstorm since April 1982.

 

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48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It seams as if some of our best storms are when the PNA is negative. Example PDII. If the blocking is strong enough it becomes an overrunning to coastal scenario. Also a storm forced off the coast with enough blocking could deepen and bring in cold air. 

Late season storms usually either favor inland areas or eastern LI for the reason you mentioned.

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2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I think some of that might have had to do with it being in March, might have had a different outcome if it was on Jan 20th or something.

Long Island (even here in Nassau County) has had big storms in late March and April, but I dont believe the city itself has had a post March 20 6"+ snowstorm since April 1982.

 

Pretty sure the storm track on that one was tucked into the coast.

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14 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Seasonal shift in track? I dont know.... do late season storms have more of a tendency to tuck into the coast?

No

Whether the coast flips to rain has little to do with time of the season and more to do with storm track, particularly the track of the mid-level centers.

Of course, without an antecedent cold air mass in place it's tough to get snow anywhere. 

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No

Whether the coast flips to rain has little to do with time of the season and more to do with storm track, particularly the track of the mid-level centers.

Of course, without an antecedent cold air mass in place it's tough to get snow anywhere. 

Right but what I was wondering is if time of season impacts storm track- in other words do storms have more of a tendency to tuck in March rather than in January,

Funny thing is before 1996, you have to go really far back to find a January HECS.  And since about 2010 all of our HECS have occurred in either late December or January.  (HECS = or > 18 inches)

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11 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Right but what I was wondering is if time of season impacts storm track- in other words do storms have more of a tendency to tuck in March rather than in January,

Funny thing is before 1996, you have to go really far back to find a January HECS.  And since about 2010 all of our HECS have occurred in either late December or January.  (HECS = or > 18 inches)

I think you would have a really tough time finding that correlation. 

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59 minutes ago, Paragon said:

We've had 22-25 inches of snow here, I dont know why Central Park is still stuck in the teens.  I dont even pay any attention to airport snowfall "totals" lol

26.8” on an average of 28”. Will not take much.

heres winter, a solid 2 foot snow pack at my Vermont house 

 

 

34F5570C-624B-4E51-841B-4F73F5B766D4.jpeg

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You would need the -NAO to retrograde far enough west to bring the PNA up to neutral or positive to have a shot at a significant snowfall. Right now the NAO is very positive and should continue for a while longer. Hopefully, we get a window of opportunity like that in early March. A process like that takes time to occur.

 

nao_mrf_obs.gif.e46d5e98f5fd90dfe594759f987a25bc.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Where can I find metrics on east vs. West based NAO? The GEFS has the NAO going negative by mid month and EPS by EOM.

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

It seams as if some of our best storms are when the PNA is negative. Example PDII. If the blocking is strong enough it becomes an overrunning to coastal scenario. Also a storm forced off the coast with enough blocking could deepen and bring in cold air. 

What would March 1960 be considered, with regards to the PNA?

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11 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

I'll guess many months from 1979-1992

On quick review (and I used over 5" of rain):

Feb 1981 - T

Dec 83 -1.6"

Dec 1986 - .6"

Jan 1990- 1.8"

Dec 1992 - .4"

 

Not as many as I thought because there were only 12 months total of 5" or more of rain from Dec-Mar

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I haven't seen his posts. He did so well for Dec-Jan. Everyone got burnt with February.

I never bought a cold and stormy February. The writing has been on the wall since the third week of January or so. We thawed out after the big arctic outbreak in late December - early January and for the most part haven't looked back since.

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Allot of premature towel throwing today. It’s mid February. Is there a warm period on the way? Most likely yes. Enjoy the warmth next week. After that it’s game time. We haven’t had a true negative NAO in a long time. (During the peak of snow climatology which runs from late December to early March) 

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