donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 As a warm front pushed northward across parts of the area yesterday, the mercury surged into the 60s. High temperatures included: Belmar: 62°; New York City: 62°; Newark: 64°. Not far to the north on the other side of the frontal boundary, temperatures remained locked in the 30s in Poughkeepsie even this morning. Going forward in the medium term, there remains a degree of uncertainty concerning whether the AO will go negative and, if it does, how long it will stay negative. Right now, a compromise position favoring a short-duration period where it is negative seems reasonably likely. However, by month’s end, it could well be positive or pushing positive if some of the ensemble members are right. The previously modeled idea of a severely negative AO appears increasingly unlikely. These developments suggest that the possibility of a sustained period of cold toward the end of February may be falling. It’s too soon to write off such an outcome, but some of the ideas that cut against the EPS and GEFS ensemble consensus concerning blocking for earlier February had proved accurate. Therefore, this possible scenario should be taken seriously, especially as splitting polar vortex events typically favor Eurasia and not North America with cold. Such a scenario would further delay winter’s return, leaving the perhaps the best opportunity for a period of cold and snow to March. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/11 35.5° (1.8° above normal) 2/15 37.2°-38.4° (2/11 estimate: 36.2°-37.8°) 2/20 37.8°-40.2° (2/11 estimate: 36.6°-39.3°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 65% (2/11 estimate: 61%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Wow look at that ridge directly over us on the EPS/Euro, incredible warmth if that verifies. 70s and 80s. 70s and 80s?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC is currently tied for the 2nd lowest February snowfall on record. Still not much in the way of accumulating snow showing up in the forecast. Hopefully, something can sneak in before the month is over to get us out of the bottom top 10. #1...T......2002....1998....1984....1952...1981 #2...0.5...2018....1954....1953 #3...0.9...1959 #4...1.0...1968 #5...1.6....1960 #6...1.7....1980 #7...2.0"...1956 #8...2.1....1997...1989...1988 #9...2.2....2012 #10..2.3...1973 the years before 1952 don't count ? If NYC ends up with only 0.5 they would be tied for # 11 in the records dating back too Feb. 1869 http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 59 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Wow look at that ridge directly over us on the EPS/Euro, incredible warmth if that verifies. 70s and 80s. EURO Meteorgram down to 60 from 72 on Thurs 2/15. Shows 70 on 21st. instead. Before the cold wave it had a low of -13! We got to +5. It is wrong both ways. Games of chance are for CI and Las Vegas. Hey "Step right up and pick a T" Win a Koopie Doll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, CIK62 said: EURO Meteorgram down to 60 from 72 on Thurs 2/15. Shows 70 on 21st. instead. Before the cold wave it had a low of -13! We got to +5. It is wrong both ways. Games of chance are for CI and Las Vegas. Hey "Step right up and pick a T" Win a Koopie Doll! It usually busts on cold and is not warmth enough during warm surges. Euro has been consistent in showing very warm temperatures for late February, I'm thinking 75+ for one or two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: I clicked the BDR column by mistake. So those are the BDR numbers so for February. NYC needs to get above an inch to get out of the bottom 10. NYC is currently at 7th place on the lowest list for February snow. Climo for February is 9.2. Hopefully, some accumulating snows show up in the forecast and not keep getting pushed back further each model run. #1...0.0...1998 #2...T......2002...1981...1971...1938 #3...0.1....1892 #4...0.2....2012...1984 #5...0.3...1989 #6...0.4...1982...1959...1953...1877 #7...0.5...2018....1954...1919 #8...0.7...2004 #9...0.8...1973...1909 #10..1.0...1992...1890 #20...2.7...1980...1956 # 7 ??? there are 13 years on your list that have lower amounts for February. Also there is nothing unusual about NYC having a snowfall of 1 inch or less in February - its expected to happen on occasion as proven by the very limited amount of years since official record keeping began....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It usually busts on cold and is not warmth enough during warm surges. Euro has been consistent in showing very warm temperatures for late February, I'm thinking 75+ for one or two days. Are you serious ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Feb. Looks bleak. However, the comparable winter of 1989 1990 still had 3.1 inches of snow in March. Starting to look more and more likely that a sustained period is not in the cards, however a short winter with 1 or 2 light to moderate storms is still possible, if not a warning level event. Marchb is volatile. EPS and GEFS have the NAO and AO moving to negative by month end. Hopefully they are right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Where has PB been? Has he posted lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, something clicks for early March. The record slow MJO passage through phase 7 keeps pushing everything back on the models. This is the first time we are seeing such a persistent MJO phase 7 in February. Agreed. However, for the first time the GEFS is showing the mjo touch phase 8. Delayed but not denied perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Challenging pattern for us as long as the PNA continues to trend more negative over time. The MJO/-PNA couplet keeps pumping up the WAR/SE ridge. How strong would the - NAO have to be to completely counteract that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Are we at game, set, match, yet? Rhetorical, we have been there for 5 weeks. Hindsight is 20/20 but this winter, with the exception of one very lucky timed snow event, wreaked of any 1980's winter (with the exception of 86-87) from the get-go. At least, for homeowners, the heating bills were cheap post January 8th. You can all but lock-up a cool damp crappy spring....-NAO from April through August, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Are you serious ? Honestly so what if it happens? There'll be other winters that are much better. I already dont care what happens for the rest of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: How strong would the - NAO have to be to completely counteract that? Correct me if I am wrong, but that is more typical in March/spring months...probably having something to do with the elongating wavelengths....but I could be talking out of my azz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: As a warm front pushed northward across parts of the area yesterday, the mercury surged into the 60s. High temperatures included: Belmar: 62°; New York City: 62°; Newark: 64°. Not far to the north on the other side of the frontal boundary, temperatures remained locked in the 30s in Poughkeepsie even this morning. Going forward in the medium term, there remains a degree of uncertainty concerning whether the AO will go negative and, if it does, how long it will stay negative. Right now, a compromise position favoring a short-duration period where it is negative seems reasonably likely. However, by month’s end, it could well be positive or pushing positive if some of the ensemble members are right. The previously modeled idea of a severely negative AO appears increasingly unlikely. These developments suggest that the possibility of a sustained period of cold toward the end of February may be falling. It’s too soon to write off such an outcome, but some of the ideas that cut against the EPS and GEFS ensemble consensus concerning blocking for earlier February had proved accurate. Therefore, this possible scenario should be taken seriously, especially as splitting polar vortex events typically favor Eurasia and not North America with cold. Such a scenario would further delay winter’s return, leaving the perhaps the best opportunity for a period of cold and snow to March. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/11 35.5° (1.8° above normal) 2/15 37.2°-38.4° (2/11 estimate: 36.2°-37.8°) 2/20 37.8°-40.2° (2/11 estimate: 36.6°-39.3°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 65% (2/11 estimate: 61%). Going by own instincts I was thinking that having such a period of mild rainy weather in early and now mid February wasn't conducive for us getting back to winter weather later in the month. We might get something in March, but it will likely be one of those random 3-4 inch events that melts the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 I think a good 4-8 inch snow event will happen in early March given some projections to MJO 8 barely and La Nina winters usually having snow in March climo wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: What's the reason that the -NAO would impact Europe moreso than NA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Paragon said: What's the reason that the -NAO would impact Europe moreso than NA? Part of the problem is that we really don't have any arctic air to speak of. Even our colder air masses behind fronts aren't that cold. Take the next two days for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Are we at game, set, match, yet? Rhetorical, we have been there for 5 weeks. Hindsight is 20/20 but this winter, with the exception of one very lucky timed snow event, wreaked of any 1980's winter (with the exception of 86-87) from the get-go. At least, for homeowners, the heating bills were cheap post January 8th. You can all but lock-up a cool damp crappy spring....-NAO from April through August, again. A classic Nina front loaded winter. Had 2 events here, Dec and early Jan. Have not seen an inch of snow since 1/4. NYC will set a 2nd place finish for least Feb snow if nothing else falls rest of month (Credit: Bluewave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Part of the problem is that we really don't have any arctic air to speak of. Even our colder air masses behind fronts aren't that cold. Take the next two days for example. It reminds me a bit of 2001-02, we had periods of blocking but no arctic air to bring down outside of the bout in early January that caused the snowstorm in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: A classic Nina front loaded winter. Had 2 events here, Dec and early Jan. Have not seen an inch of snow since 1/4. NYC will set a 2nd place finish for least Feb snow if nothing else falls rest of month (Credit: Bluewave) Oh you didn't get the 2-2.5 inches we got at the end of January. LI actually seems to do a little better because storms either track too far west or too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: A classic Nina front loaded winter. Had 2 events here, Dec and early Jan. Have not seen an inch of snow since 1/4. NYC will set a 2nd place finish for least Feb snow if nothing else falls rest of month (Credit: Bluewave) I deleted the post. Those are the numbers for BDR not NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: I deleted the post. Those are the numbers for BDR not NYC. Ok. Yeah, that's pretty bad for here. Usually we get a rogue few inches even in the warmest of Feb's. Last year we saw a 16 inch storm in a month that finished +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, Paragon said: Oh you didn't get the 2-2.5 inches we got at the end of January. LI actually seems to do a little better because storms either track too far west or too far east. Correct. Received 1.5 to 2 inches in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: A classic Nina front loaded winter. Had 2 events here, Dec and early Jan. Have not seen an inch of snow since 1/4. NYC will set a 2nd place finish for least Feb snow if nothing else falls rest of month (Credit: Bluewave) And it was a joke of a front loaded winter here. Cold yes, but nonetheless it looks like a sub 20" season for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Part of the problem is that we really don't have any arctic air to speak of. Even our colder air masses behind fronts aren't that cold. Take the next two days for example. Every NAO is different apparently. Just calling it Neg. with a certain magnitude does not tell the whole story. Some are west based (good for us) and others east based, and too far away to do anything. Well I think this is correct. This one is east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 49 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I think a good 4-8 inch snow event will happen in early March given some projections to MJO 8 barely and La Nina winters usually having snow in March climo wise Agreed and that would bring NYC almost to normal in the snowfall department for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Challenging pattern for us as long as the PNA continues to trend more negative over time. The MJO/-PNA couplet keeps pumping up the WAR/SE ridge. It seams as if some of our best storms are when the PNA is negative. Example PDII. If the blocking is strong enough it becomes an overrunning to coastal scenario. Also a storm forced off the coast with enough blocking could deepen and bring in cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 57 minutes ago, Paragon said: Going by own instincts I was thinking that having such a period of mild rainy weather in early and now mid February wasn't conducive for us getting back to winter weather later in the month. We might get something in March, but it will likely be one of those random 3-4 inch events that melts the next day. There may be risk of such an outcome, but 2001-type case with a bigger storm is also possible should strong blocking finally develop—hopefully, with a more widespread snowfall than the March 2001 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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