frd Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: Especially when we have a record breaking MJO pulse like this. In addition to the record amplitude in phase 6, I believe this may be the longest passage in phase 7 on record. To complicate long range forecasts further, the new Euro run is trying to weaken before getting to phase 8 like the GFS and CMC. @bluewave What is causing the decrease in amplitude? I would have thought given the records so far it would have just moved into phase 8 at a decent amplitude and progrssion. Also, some do not place so much faith on the MJO, as it is over-rated, I tend to disagree on that stance. What do you think Bluewave. Is the MJO a key feature and predictor of the weather here in the future? It sure seems that the ECM 240 hour forecast is connected to the future placement of the MJO, at least to me it does. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Especially when we have a record breaking MJO pulse like this. In addition to the record amplitude in phase 6, I believe this may be the longest passage in phase 7 on record. To complicate long range forecasts further, the new Euro run is trying to weaken before getting to phase 8 like the GFS and CMC. Big pullback on the ecmwf mjo in phases 812. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Big pullback on the ecmwf mjo in phases 812. Not good. we have had some of our biggest snowstorms when the MJO was in the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: we have had some of our biggest snowstorms when the MJO was in the COD Good point, especially if the AO and NAO are truly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 4 hours ago, Paragon said: What do you think might be the cause for this kind of historic MJO? Is it another symptom of the record blocking that we've seen that's been shifting west with time? Papers have found that the very warm SST anomalies in the Central Pacific enhance MJO activity. The MJO became very active in October with the near record SST's west of the DL. That pulse was near record levels for late October followed the the most recent record amplitude. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066984/full Finally, we reexamine the relationship between SST anomalies and MJO activity based on the historical record. Previously, Hendon et al. [1999] showed enhanced MJO activity, both globally and locally in the western/central Pacific, favored by positive SST anomalies in the central Pacific equatorial region around 160°E–160°W during November–March (their Figure 10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Especially when we have a record breaking MJO pulse like this. In addition to the record amplitude in phase 6, I believe this may be the longest passage in phase 7 on record. To complicate long range forecasts further, the new Euro run is trying to weaken before getting to phase 8 like the GFS and CMC. I'm finding 2001 to be pretty interesting as I'm looking a little deeper today. There are several factors that are lining up pretty similarly with this year. Check out the MJO progression that year, and the composite 500mb for Feb of that year compared with the pattern on todays 12z EPS. It was a weak la nina year with similar QBO. It was also a year that featured a SSW split in Feb such as this one will, which is occuring around the same date as the one that year did. It's also interesting how the MJO amplitude tanked similarly in phase 7 without really propagating trough phase 8, similar to how this one is now being modeled albeit with a timing and amplitude difference. 2001 MJO: Here was the Feb pattern that year: Some similarities with the 12z EPS are noticable: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Following up on that, here is what March went on to look like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Following up on that, here is what March went on to look like: Do we really want to talk about March 2001? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Do we really want to talk about March 2001? I was just pointing out some similarities, this year will be different as everything seems more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I was just pointing out some similarities, this year will be different as everything seems more amplified. That was one painful near miss, even 2/6/10 was alleviated somewhat ( although not much in my area ) by the two big storms that followed later on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That was one painful near miss, even 2/6/10 was alleviated somewhat ( although not much in my area ) by the two big storms that followed later on.... 8 years ago today was our best storm of the winter. I had about 14" surpassing the December storm and late Feb snowacane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 That's why I take all LR forecasts with a huge mountain of salt lol- it's very difficult to even get the monthly temp prediction right, let alone snowfall amounts and distribution. Salt is not good for you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 9degs. AN. Month to date is exactly NORMAL. Should be +4.0 by the 19th. Both GFS/CMC have 4" of Rain Only for the next 10 days. We are gonna end up with 7" of Rain for the month, at this rate, a potential 70" of Snow---but just a half inch actual. No hope for Snow, less the first half of March with its predicted, putative BN temps. Feb. could end up @+5 or +6 degrees. A big bust---and for those a topless show will do! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 Picked up 0.56" of rain yesterday, 0.27" so far today. Storm total up to 0.83" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 39 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 9degs. AN. Month to date is exactly NORMAL. Should be +4.0 by the 19th. Both GFS/CMC have 4" of Rain Only for the next 10 days. We are gonna end up with 7" of Rain for the month, at this rate, a potential 70" of Snow---but just a half inch actual. No hope for Snow, less the first half of March with its predicted, putative BN temps. Feb. could end up @+5 or +6 degrees. A big bust---and for those a topless show will do! Lol. Really wasnt a bust. Guys on here have been talking about a warm February since November. Heck, even the accuweather long range (worthless) forecast had February well above normal. As January became warmer, talk of a cold February really started to ramp up along with models that seemed to support this wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Yesterday saw all of February’s cold anomaly wiped out in Central Park. Courtesy of mild temperatures today, February will begin building a warm anomaly. The 0z ECMWF is particularly aggressive with the warmth, suggesting that the temperature could wind up as the 2nd warmest on record for February 16 (the daily record is 71°, which was set in 1954). At this point in time, that cumulative warm anomaly appears likely to persist through the rest of the month, even as colder air could return toward its close. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/10 33.7° (2/10 estimate: 33.6°-34.0°; Normal) 2/15 36.2°-37.8° (2/10 estimate: 35.9°-37.9°) 2/20 36.6°-39.3° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 61% (2/10 estimate: 58%). Less aggressive sensitivity analysis places the probability at approximately 75%. The 2/9 MJO had an amplitude of 3.473. That figure is below the daily record amplitude of 3.627, which was set in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 You can see how the day 1-10 forecast keeps trending milder for us as the models are holding the MJO in phase 7 longer. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 My guess for the rest of the month is 13 AN/4BN days, for a +5degs. during period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Good guess. Starting to look like Sept. And Jan would have looked like this too if the negative departure at beginning of month wasnt so strong. And November had a flip mid month (in opposite direction) as well. A new “extreme” pattern has developed over last 6 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Starting to look like winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2018 Author Share Posted February 11, 2018 I predict a 9" inch rainstorm w/60 mph winds in March in a boxing match between the -NAO and the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Yesterday saw all of February’s cold anomaly wiped out in Central Park. Courtesy of mild temperatures today, February will begin building a warm anomaly. The 0z ECMWF is particularly aggressive with the warmth, suggesting that the temperature could wind up as the 2nd warmest on record for February 16 (the daily record is 71°, which was set in 1954). At this point in time, that cumulative warm anomaly appears likely to persist through the rest of the month, even as colder air could return toward its close. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/10 33.7° (2/10 estimate: 33.6°-34.0°; Normal) 2/15 36.2°-37.8° (2/10 estimate: 35.9°-37.9°) 2/20 36.6°-39.3° Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 61% (2/10 estimate: 58%). Less aggressive sensitivity analysis places the probability at approximately 75%. The 2/9 MJO had an amplitude of 3.473. That figure is below the daily record amplitude of 3.627, which was set in 1985. The euro in that range always seems to get temps wrong. Anyway this is a typical La Nina Feb. with it being the warmest winter month...the opposite of El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: At least for the DJF period, looks like we got an abbreviated but potent dose of winter from 12/8-1/8. We can't complain since we saw a 950 mb blizzard and the second coldest 12/26-1/8 period on record. Part of the new weather extremes pattern that is becoming the new norm around here. The extremes have been impressive in recent years. I guess you could add the record MJO amplitude and what looks like a record SSW event to the extremes list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: True. We can also include the record +PMM( Pacific Meridional Mode) with the wall of Western NOAM blocking from Nov into early Jan. And the record +500 mb height and PWAT in Jan. I could see the kind of day we are having today happening in April or May...a cold wet period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 1 hour ago, NortheastPAWx said: Starting to look like winter cancel. For coastal sections it may be, I do feel inland locations will still get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 winter was over for these years until March came along... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Not much to add. EPS delays the negative AO till end of month, and MJO and NAO looks good, but EPO goes positive and PNA stays negative. GEFS teleconnections look better save PNA and MJO. I will refrain from putting a "winter is over" statement until/if Isotherm and Don change their stance. Until then I will hold out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Winter is not over guys it’s the middle of it and late February and the beginning of March will produce all teleconnections depict that we’ll get cold and snowy times around that time after a warm 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 Isotherm thinks the pattern will get better by late February into March. Hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 HM thinks the the Mid Atlantic hasn't seen their best snowstorm yet this winter. Seems like a lot of people like March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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