February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Rtd208]

 

[NEG NAO]

President's Day 3 ?

[weatherpruf]

43 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

President's Day 3 ?

President's day is the 12th so no.....though some schools are closed the 19th. TBH I don't know what the actual date is anymore.....Motor vehicle is closed the 12th...but yeah I get it. Would love to see it too. But too many pros saying hang it up. Earthlight ( that is John Homenuk right ? ) seems to think they might be wrong though.

[IrishRob17]

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Wonder why NJ is different....when I was a kid both Washington and Lincoln had their own days.....we used to get the Friday and Monday off from the schools but many stopped that as the 2000's often had too many snow days as well as Sandy....

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Wonder why NJ is different....when I was a kid both Washington and Lincoln had their own days.....we used to get the Friday and Monday off from the schools but many stopped that as the 2000's often had too many snow days as well as Sandy....

The 12th is Lincoln's birthday and the 19th is Washington's birthday.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 8degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.2.   Should be  +3.1 by the 18th.

[bluewave]

This is continuing to be one of the sharpest pattern changes that NYC has seen after the first week of January in terms of temperature and snowfall.

12/1....1/8......-4.4.....17.5"

1/9......2/9.....+3.1.....1.9"

[Brian5671]

10 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Wonder why NJ is different....when I was a kid both Washington and Lincoln had their own days.....we used to get the Friday and Monday off from the schools but many stopped that as the 2000's often had too many snow days as well as Sandy....

They used to do a full week here!   That's gone due to Sandy and Feb 13 blizzard and schools closed Fri and Mon now.

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is continuing to be one of the sharpest pattern changes that NYC has seen after the first week of January in terms of temperature and snowfall.

12/1....1/8......-4.4.....17.5"

1/9......2/9.....+3.1.....1.9"

A less extreme dec 89 type flip....

[donsutherland1]

A mild and wet weekend lies ahead. Early this morning, an area of rain was pushing northeastward across West Virginia and Virginia. As a result, early sunshine will give way to rapidly increasing clouds. A soaking rain will follow later today and tomorrow. Downpours could produce ponding of water. Widespread 1”-2” amounts are likely. Some parts of the region could pick up amounts near or above 3” of rain.

New York City’s Average Temperature Through:

2/9 32.5° (1.2° below normal)
2/10 33.6-34.0° (2/9 estimate: 33.4°-34.0°)
2/15 35.9°-37.9° (2/9 estimate: 35.6°-38.0°)

Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 58% (2/9 estimate: 58%). 

Finally, the record-breaking MJO amplitude continued. The 2/8 MJO had an amplitude of 3.854. The previous daily record was 3.256, which was set in 1985.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A less extreme dec 89 type flip....

There were a few similarities to that winter so far this year. First, that pattern flipped on 12/31 and this year about a week later. Second, that one was also a MJO induced pattern change.  The MJO pulse near the end on December shifted the forcing back to the Maritime Continent north of Australia like we saw this year. So in effect, the MJO shifted the pattern to a more La Nina-like state. 

[NEG NAO]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is continuing to be one of the sharpest pattern changes that NYC has seen after the first week of January in terms of temperature and snowfall.

12/1....1/8......-4.4.....17.5"

1/9......2/9.....+3.1.....1.9"

and through it all NYC's average temp  is between 1 - 2 degrees below normal for the season and snowfall is above normal for the season - looks like the pattern going forward is going to feature a wide range of weather conditions .......

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

and through it all NYC's average temp  is between 1 - 2 degrees below normal for the season and snowfall is above normal for the season - looks like the pattern going forward is going to feature a wide range of weather conditions .......

More extended periods of cold and snowcover have been elusive after the 14-15 winter. But at least we cashed in on snow during the cold intervals that we got. While it's tough to get over 50" on the season in this type of regime, we did get some amazing snowstorms.

[EastonSN+]

The eps and GEFS are far apart with their AO, NAO and MJO predictions.

Eps basically delays the AO and NAO drop till the end of the month, while the GEFS is by the 17th. Also, EPS has the EPO going positive at month end while GEFS stays negative.

Both have the PNA negative.

Again, like a broken record I cannot believe that most of the area would not receive at least a moderate event by the end of March. The pattern will NOT be that hostile by EOM if the teleconnections are correct. That being said, part of me suddenly wants to see the shut out as it would be almost as anomalous as 89 90.

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is continuing to be one of the sharpest pattern changes that NYC has seen after the first week of January in terms of temperature and snowfall.

12/1....1/8......-4.4.....17.5"

1/9......2/9.....+3.1.....1.9"

The reverse of winters like 14-15 and 15-16?

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

There were a few similarities to that winter so far this year. First, that pattern flipped on 12/31 and this year about a week later. Second, that one was also a MJO induced pattern change.  The MJO pulse near the end on December shifted the forcing back to the Maritime Continent north of Australia like we saw this year. So in effect, the MJO shifted the pattern to a more La Nina-like state. 

Chris, when was the last time we had all three winter months below normal temps?

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Chris, when was the last time we had all three winter months below normal temps?

2009-10.

[gravitylover]

^^ I think that was the biggest snowbanks I've had in my driveway in the 22 years I've lived in this house. At one point they were too tall to put the snow onto anymore and I was carrying one shovel load at a time out to the streetside snowbanks. 

[EastonSN+]

Isotherm and Don have stated that a flip to a more favorable pattern will occur. This lines with the EPS teleconnections at month end. Other than the PNA this should occur. 

[uncle W]

we are in a stronger la nina than most other years...last months oni was -1.0...If the DJF oni is the same it will be stronger than 1995-96...the only la nina year with above average snowfall and a major snowstorm with an oni -1.0 for DJF is 2010-11...It had extreme blocking until Feb...2018 had some blocking Dec into Jan...not so much lately...

the winters with the most consistent blocking were 1995-96, 1955-56, 1970-71, 1984-85, 2010-11...1973-74 had a lesser negative ao winter...The winters with no blocking to speak of are...1975-76, 1988-89, 1999-00, 2007-08, 1949-50, 1998-99...the only cold winter with no blocking was 1975-76...but all six with no blocking had less snow than average...the only winter with less snow than normal with blocking was 1970-71...only 1955-56, 1995-96 and 2010-11 had major blizzards and above average snowfall...2017-18 will probably end up averaging 35.0 if Feb. ends up way above normal...that would be around average...without another significant snowfall it will end up below average...the minimum of 5 will probably stand...the reds mean warmer than normal and less snow than average...blacks are near average...blue is below normal temps and above average snowfall...blue ao numbers are negative...red ao numbers are positive...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.3.......35.5.....6.........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3"

1988-89..............-1.6............+2.4.......35.9.....5.........32.4............8.1"..........5.0"

1999-00..............-1.6............+0.7.......36.2.....3.........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5"

1975-76..............-1.5............+0.9.......34.4....-1.........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0"

2007-08..............-1.4............+0.5.......36.4...10.........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0"

1949-50..............-1.4............+0.2.......37.5.....6.........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8"

1998-99..............-1.4............+0.1.......38.7.....9.........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5"

1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.6.......32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4"

2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.3.......32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0"

2017-18..........................................................5...........................19.4"..........9.8" 4.6"

1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.2.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1"

1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.5.......32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2"

1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.1.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1".........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

 

[Paragon]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

2009-10.

yep and the storminess remained into March but we flipped to warmer and the heat race was on beginning in April  one of my favorite patterns ever, historic snow to historic heat back to historic snow lol

[Paragon]

14 minutes ago, uncle W said:

we are in a stronger la nina than most other years...last months oni was -1.0...If the DJF oni is the same it will be stronger than 1995-96...the only la nina year with above average snowfall and a major snowstorm with an oni -1.0 for DJF is 2010-11...It had extreme blocking until Feb...2018 had some blocking Dec into Jan...not so much lately...

the winters with the most consistent blocking were 1995-96, 1955-56, 1970-71, 1984-85, 2010-11...1973-74 had a lesser negative ao winter...The winters with no blocking to speak of are...1975-76, 1988-89, 1999-00, 2007-08, 1949-50, 1998-99...the only cold winter with no blocking was 1975-76...but all six with no blocking had less snow than average...the only winter with less snow than normal with blocking was 1970-71...only 1955-56, 1995-96 and 2010-11 had major blizzards and above average snowfall...2017-18 will probably end up averaging 35.0 if Feb. ends up way above normal...that would be around average...without another significant snowfall it will end up below average...the minimum of 5 will probably stand...the reds mean warmer than normal and less snow than average...blacks are near average...blue is below normal temps and above average snowfall...blue ao numbers are negative...red ao numbers are positive...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.3.......35.5.....6.........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3"

1988-89..............-1.6............+2.4.......35.9.....5.........32.4............8.1"..........5.0"

1999-00..............-1.6............+0.7.......36.2.....3.........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5"

1975-76..............-1.5............+0.9.......34.4....-1.........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0"

2007-08..............-1.4............+0.5.......36.4...10.........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0"

1949-50..............-1.4............+0.2.......37.5.....6.........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8"

1998-99..............-1.4............+0.1.......38.7.....9.........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5"

1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.6.......32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4"

2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.3.......32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0"

2017-18..........................................................5...........................19.4"..........9.8" 4.6"

1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.2.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1"

1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.5.......32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2"

1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.1.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1".........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

 

Even without major blocking in 2007-08 we had a decent  6-8" SWFE in late Feb

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Even without major blocking in 2007-08 we had a decent  6-8" SWFE in late Feb

This season the rest of the way is impossible to predict because of so many mixed signals - timing of systems will be key - there will be plenty of cold air available just to our north and an active southern stream...…..

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This season the rest of the way is impossible to predict because of so many mixed signals - timing of systems will be key - there will be plenty of cold air available just to our north and an active southern stream...…..

That's why I take all LR forecasts with a huge mountain of salt lol- it's very difficult to even get the monthly temp prediction right, let alone snowfall amounts and distribution.

 

[Paragon]

They're talking about how Chicago might get snow for 10 straight days and set a new record.  I wonder why that never happens around here, systems always seem to be speeding up when they hit the east coast.  I've never seen a front stall out and give us snow for 10 straight days.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

That's why I take all LR forecasts with a huge mountain of salt lol- it's very difficult to even get the monthly temp prediction right, let alone snowfall amounts and distribution.

 

Especially when we have a record breaking MJO pulse like this. In addition to the record amplitude in phase 6, I believe this may be the longest passage in phase 7 on record. To complicate long range forecasts further, the new Euro run is trying to weaken before getting to phase 8 like the GFS and CMC.

 

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

The eps and GEFS are far apart with their AO, NAO and MJO predictions.

Eps basically delays the AO and NAO drop till the end of the month, while the GEFS is by the 17th. Also, EPS has the EPO going positive at month end while GEFS stays negative.

Both have the PNA negative.

Again, like a broken record I cannot believe that most of the area would not receive at least a moderate event by the end of March. The pattern will NOT be that hostile by EOM if the teleconnections are correct. That being said, part of me suddenly wants to see the shut out as it would be almost as anomalous as 89 90.

sadist

[Paragon]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Especially when we have a record breaking MJO pulse like this. In addition to the record amplitude in phase 6, I believe this may be the longest passage in phase 7 on record. To complicate long range forecasts further, the new Euro run is trying to weaken before getting to phase 8 like the GFS and CMC.

 

 

 

What do you think might be the cause for this kind of historic MJO?  Is it another symptom of the record blocking that we've seen that's been shifting west with time?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

They're talking about how Chicago might get snow for 10 straight days and set a new record.  I wonder why that never happens around here, systems always seem to be speeding up when they hit the east coast.  I've never seen a front stall out and give us snow for 10 straight days.

It won't happen there either.

Like the fantasy maps that never live up to their depicted amounts or come close, I'll believe this after it actually happens. I've lived near Chicago, it's colder than here but it snows in imost places in the HV on average more than Chicago.