NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 12Z GFS with a suppressed storm track mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I wonder where the heaviest rains will set up, could easily see 2"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 We need the PNA to go positive and epo to stop trending positive to get the full benefit of the blocking. More risky with just the AO and NAO on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: especially with February crapping the bed...most of us have not see anything meaningful since 1/4/18. Desperate times indeed. but most locations still have above normal snowfall and below normal temps for the season this is how the winters go around here - look at the historical monthly and seasonal totals - nothing to complain about this season...……..and everyone is giving up on February on the 9th of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: but most locations still have above normal snowfall and below normal temps for the season this is how the winters go around here - look at the historical monthly and seasonal totals - nothing to complain about this season...……..and everyone is giving up on February on the 9th of the month I guess that some parts of our area are disappointed that they are getting their lowest snowfall between January 5th and February 15th of the 2000's so far. Even if we had the blizzard and snowy December before this period began. Lowest 1/5-2/15 snowfall in NYC since 2000: 2018.....1.9"...so far 2012.....4.5" 2008.....2.8" 2002....3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: but most locations still have above normal snowfall and below normal temps for the season this is how the winters go around here - look at the historical monthly and seasonal totals - nothing to complain about this season...……..and everyone is giving up on February on the 9th of the month However the two week forecast is warmer than normal, not leaving much time left. Of course that could change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 The 12z Euro is very close to the 12z GFS with maximum rainfall of 2-3"+ over most of the area. Lowest amounts are in the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: I guess that some parts of our area are disappointed that they are getting their lowest snowfall between January 5th and February 15th of the 2000's so far. Even if we had the blizzard and snowy December before this period began. Lowest 1/5-2/15 snowfall in NYC since 2000: 2018.....1.9"...so far 2012.....4.5" 2008.....2.8" 2002....3.5" there are several ways you can evaluate this season and make comparisons to other seasons but I would rather have a front loaded season with over 19 inches as of Feb 9th rather then: 2001 - 02 --- 3.5 in. season total 2006 -07 --- 12.4 in " " 2007 - 08 ---11.9 IN " " 2011 - 12 --- 7.4 In " " all NYC totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: I guess that some parts of our area are disappointed that they are getting their lowest snowfall between January 5th and February 15th of the 2000's so far. Even if we had the blizzard and snowy December before this period began. Lowest 1/5-2/15 snowfall in NYC since 2000: 2018.....1.9"...so far 2012.....4.5" 2008.....2.8" 2002....3.5" 6 minutes ago, Dark Star said: However the two week forecast is warmer than normal, not leaving much time left. Of course that could change... many places will struggle to get to average snowfall unless things change...who would have thought that on the morning of 1/5/18??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: there are several ways you can evaluate this season and make comparisons to other seasons but I would rather have a front loaded season with over 19 inches as of Feb 9th rather then: 2001 - 02 --- 3.5 in. season total 2006 -07 --- 12.4 in " " 2007 - 08 ---11.9 IN " " 2011 - 12 --- 7.4 In " " all NYC totals some horrid years in there. Difference this year is the front loaded element-recent years have featured little snow before 1/15 and then the snow gates opened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: many places will struggle to get to average snowfall unless things change...who would have thought that on the morning of 1/5/18??? I find that hard to believe since NYC only has to total less then 10 inches by the end of the season and there will be opportunities on the horizon thru early April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I find that hard to believe since NYC only has to total less then 10 inches by the end of the season and there will be opportunities on the horizon thru early April Completely agree. This is not as hostile as 2001 and 2011. Plus we have not seen a moderate or heavy storm since Jan 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I find that hard to believe since NYC only has to total less then 10 inches by the end of the season and there will be opportunities on the horizon thru early April it's definitely reachable. One storm could do it. However, it looks more and more like it will have to be in very late Feb or March....tick tock, tick tock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Completely agree. This is not as hostile as 2001 and 2011. Plus we have not seen a moderate or heavy storm since Jan 5. Those years were so bad, we could not even get a rainstorm. Bone dry. We at least for now have an active storm track...3 events in this past week alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 anyone complaining that we have not gotten our share of snowstorms the last 10 plus years compare those years to previous decades on this list - I think some of the younger crowd have been spoiled http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: anyone complaining that we have not gotten our share of snowstorms the last 10 plus years compare those years to previous decades on this chart - I think some of the younger crowd have been spoiled http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf these boards would have been fun from say 1985-1990 with NONE. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Watch out next weekend for some overrunning. Depends on where the gradient setups up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Watch out next weekend for some overrunning. Depends on where the gradient setups up Light snow flurry ( I had to look hard ) on Cobble Hill ten minutes ago. Nice to know the fates have a sense of humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 42 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's definitely reachable. One storm could do it. However, it looks more and more like it will have to be in very late Feb or March....tick tock, tick tock... I'm at about half of my seasonal average. The interior definitely needs more help than the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I'm in Poughkeepsie at the moment and in the last 20 minutes the visibility has gone from 2-3 miles to well under a mile and it's still dropping. Nice to see since this doesn't appear that it will be the case tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Light snow all day, nice burst now, nice coating OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 NYC is nearly tied with last winters snowfall through 2/9 despite the colder winter so far. I would have traded in the cold for some extra snow like we saw in 2016. NYC avg temp and snowfall through 2/9: 2018....33.3.....19.4" 2017....38.1.....20.5" 2016....42.5.....30.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 6 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Better prepare for a colder snowier late Feb through March with a delayed spring after reading this - just a couple weeks ago he posted regarding FEB NY NJ PA WeatherVerified account @nynjpaweather Jan 24 More I am looking at all the long-range data, and by data, I mean observations that help me determine which model solutions to trust. I am telling you right now, rest up and enjoy this break. You'll need the energy for shoveling I think. 25 replies 49 retweets 163 likes Reply 25 Retweet 49 Like 163 yeah that dude is worse than a broken clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: these boards would have been fun from say 1985-1990 with NONE. LOL Jan 87 had a big one, by 80's standards.....it had been so snowless for so long people quite literally forgot how bad it could be to have a major storm with heavy rates start at around 9 am after everyone was at work.....many people were stranded on the GSP and had to abandon their cars. Which the state police were kind enough to tow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: yeah that dude is worse than a broken clock Never liked him much, for reasons I won't get into, but he did give a good explanation of the 1/4 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Jan 87 had a big one, by 80's standards.....it had been so snowless for so long people quite literally forgot how bad it could be to have a major storm with heavy rates start at around 9 am after everyone was at work.....many people were stranded on the GSP and had to abandon their cars. Which the state police were kind enough to tow.... That was the biggest storm since February 1983 and then there was no 8 inch event again til March 93. I think the December 1990 and February 91 events fell just short with around 7.5 piece. That wasn’t necessarily normal either, much like the last 16-17 years haven’t been normal snow wise with frequency of big events. NYC should see an 8 inch storm probably every other year. January 87 was a classic models move the Quebec high out too fast bust which was an epidemic among the models prior to the AVN NGM and NAM coming in and caused many snow events to be underforecast. It was a major step back because the 1983 blizzard despite the forecast busting north of PHL there was a huge step forward in that when the 00Z models initialized on that Friday night they caught the bust and showed about a foot of snow in NYC between 00 and 12Z. That was one of the first cases of a major event getting corrected by the models as it was ongoing and I think it was Mr G who said that on the evening forecast that night how big it was to see the models do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That was the biggest storm since February 1983 and then there was no 8 inch event again til March 93. I think the December 1990 and February 91 events fell just short with around 7.5 piece. That wasn’t necessarily normal either, much like the last 16-17 years haven’t been normal snow wise with frequency of big events. NYC should see an 8 inch storm probably every other year. January 87 was a classic models move the Quebec high out too fast bust which was an epidemic among the models prior to the AVN NGM and NAM coming in and caused many snow events to be underforecast. It was a major step back because the 1983 blizzard despite the forecast busting north of PHL there was a huge step forward in that when the 00Z models initialized on that Friday night they caught the bust and showed about a foot of snow in NYC between 00 and 12Z. That was one of the first cases of a major event getting corrected by the models as it was ongoing and I think it was Mr G who said that on the evening forecast that night how big it was to see the models do that The busting back then was almost comical-so many forecasts of decent snows, then the event just started as rain and was rain the whole time. Forecasts of snow and then no precip at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That was the biggest storm since February 1983 and then there was no 8 inch event again til March 93. I think the December 1990 and February 91 events fell just short with around 7.5 piece. That wasn’t necessarily normal either, much like the last 16-17 years haven’t been normal snow wise with frequency of big events. NYC should see an 8 inch storm probably every other year. January 87 was a classic models move the Quebec high out too fast bust which was an epidemic among the models prior to the AVN NGM and NAM coming in and caused many snow events to be underforecast. It was a major step back because the 1983 blizzard despite the forecast busting north of PHL there was a huge step forward in that when the 00Z models initialized on that Friday night they caught the bust and showed about a foot of snow in NYC between 00 and 12Z. That was one of the first cases of a major event getting corrected by the models as it was ongoing and I think it was Mr G who said that on the evening forecast that night how big it was to see the models do that I remember that 83 event; it was the biggest in years but came after the April 82 storm which was also historic. Aside from 87, the rest of the 80's was forgettable with a few3-5 inch events here and there. Nothing much happened until march 92. then after 96, nothing much from 97-2000. We can go years without much snow in this region. Sometimes many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The busting back then was almost comical-so many forecasts of decent snows, then the event just started as rain and was rain the whole time. Forecasts of snow and then no precip at all... I remember in 89 a storm missing us completely, no rain or anything. My first year teaching; a snow day with not even a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was a major step back because the 1983 blizzard despite the forecast busting north of PHL there was a huge step forward in that when the 00Z models initialized on that Friday night they caught the bust and showed about a foot of snow in NYC between 00 and 12Z. That was one of the first cases of a major event getting corrected by the models as it was ongoing and I think it was Mr G who said that on the evening forecast that night how big it was to see the models do that Feb 83 and Jan 96 were great examples of the Philly rule. If the longer range runs show Philly getting a big snowstorm, then it usually corrects north to include NYC closer in. That's probably why some didn't believe what the NAM was showing when it had the sharp snowfall gradient north of Philly for 2-6-10. That was one of the few exceptions to the rule that I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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