doncat Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ok so I’ll make sure to discount all the Mets that completely dissagree with you and break out the shorts. We got it, you like warm weather Yeah he's been talking warmth since November started...we've had three straight below normal months, as well as the first week this month...I know it hasn't snowed much lately but it hasn't been warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: And here is another opinion, Steve D. from this morning. Many different opinions out there as we head into the second half of the month and into March. Well since winter storms are what we want to see, then a neg NAO doesn't mean squat to me.....if he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Well since winter storms are what we want to see, then a neg NAO doesn't mean squat to me.....if he's right. I don’t think the lack of storm will be the issue. The issue is the availability of cold air. You can have a record -NAO but without cold air it’s pointless. Central New England north had been doing very well lately. If you want to see a real snow pack I’ll post a pick tomorrow from Stratton Vermont where they have had 31” in the last week with another 4” tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I don’t think the lack of storm will be the issue. The issue is the availability of cold air. You can have a record -NAO but without cold air it’s pointless. Central New England north had been doing very well lately. If you want to see a real snow pack I’ll post a pick tomorrow from Stratton Vermont where they have had 31” in the last week with another 4” tomorrow night. Yeah well I'd expect them to have snow. But sure we all like seeing the pictures. I'm only ever in New England during the warmer months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 today was the tenth straight day with a minimum 32 or lower in NYC...tomorrow will be the 11th...tomorrow will also be the 51st day so far with a min 32 or lower for the season...there was 49 all of last year...11 straight is a modest run...we saw 17 a month earlier...the last two winters only had 8 and 9 days in a row...2014-15 had 38 in a row...the most since 1977... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, uncle W said: today was the tenth straight day with a minimum 32 or lower in NYC...tomorrow will be the 11th...tomorrow will also be the 51st day so far with a min 32 or lower for the season...there was 49 all of last year...11 straight is a modest run...we saw 17 a month earlier...the last two winters only had 8 and 9 days in a row...2014-15 had 38 in a row...the most since 1977... yeah but it ain't doing anything for us Unc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Would be a real bummer if we finally get the Atlantic to cooperate but the Pacific is terrible and floods mild air in. Since our air masses travel west to east for the most part, we need some help from the Pacific. Ninas are also known for roaring Pacific jets that do just this especially late in the season so it wouldn’t be a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I don’t think the lack of storm will be the issue. The issue is the availability of cold air. You can have a record -NAO but without cold air it’s pointless. Central New England north had been doing very well lately. If you want to see a real snow pack I’ll post a pick tomorrow from Stratton Vermont where they have had 31” in the last week with another 4” tomorrow night. Almost half their season total in the last week sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 41 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Would be a real bummer if we finally get the Atlantic to cooperate but the Pacific is terrible and floods mild air in. Since our air masses travel west to east for the most part, we need some help from the Pacific. Ninas are also known for roaring Pacific jets that do just this especially late in the season so it wouldn’t be a shock. thats why Ninas produce the best winter storms when they go south to north not west to east. Thats what we got in January too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: thats why Ninas produce the best winter storms when they go south to north not west to east. Thats what we got in January too. We were lucky with the SE ridge coming in more amped within 24-48 hours with storms like the 1/4 beast. Once the SE ridge finally took over, it was clear that it would become a cutter and SWFE pattern. It's getting to the point where we really want storms to be suppressed on the models a few days out. Without a strong block and confluence, they almost always trend NW at the end. Maybe it's a bias that needs to be adjusted in the models. With just this recent SWFE, Albany was supposed to be all snow just 24 hours out, they ended up with a solid period of freezing rain and just under 6" when I think they were supposed to get 8-10". No one in Orange County came close to the 6" Upton had 24 hours out-they were 2 to 3" and were better off in an advisory (they also had under 0.25" ice as per the PNS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We were lucky with the SE ridge coming in more amped within 24-48 hours with storms like the 1/4 beast. Once the SE ridge finally took over, it was clear that it would become a cutter and SWFE pattern. It's getting to the point where we really want storms to be suppressed on the models a few days out. Without a strong block and confluence, they almost always trend NW at the end. Maybe it's a bias that needs to be adjusted in the models. With just this recent SWFE, Albany was supposed to be all snow just 24 hours out, they ended up with a solid period of freezing rain and just under 6" when I think they were supposed to get 8-10". No one in Orange County came close to the 6" Upton had 24 hours out-they were 2 to 3" and were better off in an advisory (they also had under 0.25" ice as per the PNS). It really seems to be that storms always trend to the NW regardless of the pattern present lol. It's why my original argument was that we are getting hit with coastals that would have been well offshore in the 80s. I remember hearing so many times back then oh such and such an arctic front passed through and a secondary developed but it was well offshore so all we got was cold, windy, dry conditions. Those storms hit us now lol. But in this pattern we have now, it's too much of the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: It really seems to be that storms always trend to the NW regardless of the pattenr present ll. It's why my original argument was that we are getting hit with coastals that would have been well offshore in the 80s. I remember hearing so many times back then oh such and such an arctic front passed through and a secondary developed but it was well offshore so all we got was cold, windy dry conditions. Those storms hit us now lol. But in this pattern we have now, it's too much of the ridge. It's also part of being in a La Nina. Those are always going to try pumping the SE ridge, and they favor early winter snow/cold over late winter here. The transition period is normally in early-mid Jan, which is exactly what we're seeing. We really lucked out on the coast due to that early winter period featuring no blocking or NAO help. It was also unusual to see the deep South snow events we saw, since those happen more frequently in Nino winters. So in some ways this Nina is behaving very typically, in other ways not. But the warmer West Atlantic waters and cold Greenland area waters (perhaps due to the melting glacier water there) may be causing the NAO to stay positive and the SE ridge to be stronger than normal. All things we'll have to monitor going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's also part of being in a La Nina. Those are always going to try pumping the SE ridge, and they favor early winter snow/cold over late winter here. The transition period is normally in early-mid Jan, which is exactly what we're seeing. We really lucked out on the coast due to that early winter period featuring no blocking or NAO help. It was also unusual to see the deep South snow events we saw, since those happen more frequently in Nino winters. So in some ways this Nina is behaving very typically, in other ways not. But the warmer West Atlantic waters and cold Greenland area waters (perhaps due to the melting glacier water there) may be causing the NAO to stay positive and the SE ridge to be stronger than normal. All things we'll have to monitor going forward. I wonder if we'll see a 1955-56 type switch in March. Not buying that because it usually doesn't work out for us lol. Maybe something more like 2007-08 where we finally got a renegade cold SWFE in late February to dump 6-8 inches of snow here before it could change over right at the end. If those South events hit stronger up here we really could have had a great 1st half of winter (more like 2010-11)- but no Atlantic side blocking. With Atlantic side blocking you would have seen a Jan 2016 type 30 inch snowstorm with the 1/4 event. That was the one you missed when you were in TX lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or 9degs. AN. Month to date is. -1.1. Should be +3.9 by the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Milder air, along with rain from a storm that will likely bring 6”-12” snow to Chicago, is on the way for the weekend. At least through the next 10-15 days, readings will generally average above normal. A few days could see much warmer than normal readings. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/8 32.5° (1.1° below normal) 2/10 33.4-34.0° (2/8 estimate: 32.9°-34.1°) 2/15 35.6°-38.0° (2/8 estimate: 35.7°-38.5°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 58% (2/8 estimate: 56%). More relaxed sensitivity analysis brings the probability of a warmer than normal February near 70%. The probability of a February with a mean temperature of 40° or above is currently close to 30%. Right now, I don’t think the warmth will be as sustained or significant to bring about that outcome. The 2/7 MJO had an amplitude of 3.991. The previous daily record was 3.131, which was set in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 retrograding Atlantic ridge https://ibb.co/iNpUgH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Don, Isotherm, Bluewave, Neg AO- Are there any snowfall metrics surrounding a Neg AO, NAO, PNA and Neutral EPO pattern? To me this seems to indicate a massive trough over the US. GEFS and EPS seem to be in agreement with the above setup, albeit in varied levels. I still find it almost impossible to believe we go from Jan 5 through March 30 without a single moderate or heavy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 8 hours ago, jm1220 said: It's also part of being in a La Nina. Those are always going to try pumping the SE ridge, and they favor early winter snow/cold over late winter here. The transition period is normally in early-mid Jan, which is exactly what we're seeing. We really lucked out on the coast due to that early winter period featuring no blocking or NAO help. It was also unusual to see the deep South snow events we saw, since those happen more frequently in Nino winters. So in some ways this Nina is behaving very typically, in other ways not. But the warmer West Atlantic waters and cold Greenland area waters (perhaps due to the melting glacier water there) may be causing the NAO to stay positive and the SE ridge to be stronger than normal. All things we'll have to monitor going forward. This was really one of the first times that we saw this type of pancake +NAO squeezed between strong blocking over the pole and such an extensive ridge going across the Atlantic to the south. You knew something was up back in January when we set the record for the strongest 500 mb ridge and PWAT for this time of year. The pattern change around January 8th was about as impressive as we see around here. The Pacific from November into early January experienced the strongest +PMM pattern on record for those months. The forcing shifted back to the Maritime Continent around January 8th creating a Nina-like pattern. But this is different type of expression of La Nina with all the record warmth in the NATL and cold pool south of Greenland. Just look at how the ridge made nearly all the way across the NATL. In the past La Ninas generally produced s strong ridge from the SE US to near Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Interesting. Better prepare for a colder snowier late Feb through March with a delayed spring after reading this - just a couple weeks ago he posted regarding FEB NY NJ PA WeatherVerified account @nynjpaweather Jan 24 More I am looking at all the long-range data, and by data, I mean observations that help me determine which model solutions to trust. I am telling you right now, rest up and enjoy this break. You'll need the energy for shoveling I think. 25 replies 49 retweets 163 likes Reply 25 Retweet 49 Like 163 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Better prepare for a colder snowier late Feb through March with a delayed spring after reading this - just a couple weeks ago he posted regarding FEB NY NJ PA WeatherVerified account @nynjpaweather Jan 24 More I am looking at all the long-range data, and by data, I mean observations that help me determine which model solutions to trust. I am telling you right now, rest up and enjoy this break. You'll need the energy for shoveling I think. 25 replies 49 retweets 163 likes Reply 25 Retweet 49 Like 163 LOL. Alot of people got fooled by this Feb-pretty much all guidance pointed toward as a snowy/cold month especially after the first week....complete opposite is verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL. Alot of people got fooled by this Feb-pretty much all guidance pointed toward as a snowy/cold month especially after the first week....complete opposite is verifying... The longer range models had to really play catch up with the record breaking MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: The longer range models had to really play catch up with the record breaking MJO. just like they will be doing with the current SSW event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Agreed on the negative AO and NAO, however how would a simultaneous negative PNA and Neutral to positive epo affect the pattern? I believe Mets like dimartino are banking on the PNA and EPO overriding the AO and NAO. Would this remove the cold air source? Have we ever experienced teleconnections like this set up before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Nice wintry day out there! 24° w/ Lgt snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2-3" of rain incoming the next few days with high temps near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The longer range models had to really play catch up with the record breaking MJO. Someone in the SNE thread pointed out though that in the end the only major bust period on the models might end up being 2/10 - 2/18 because most hinted strongly at a gradient type deal from 2/1-2/8 which is pretty much what has verified. They obviously will miss the next 8-10 days badly but beyond that the pattern may be colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Below normal temps covering most of the middle and eastern parts of the country - by mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.