February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Isotherm]

The etiological factors of this resultant SSW event are of course numerous, from previous tropospheric precursor, wave 1 preconditioning, to MJO forced rossby wave dispersion - but typically with these events, even wave 2 upwells, the feedback in terms of downwell is progressive/gradual. So while the polar cap heights will be conducive rather rapidly in the troposphere, I think the -NAO/AO signal will continue to strengthen with time, as we head into the 20th-25th period and even beyond. The LR ensemble variance is muting the severe negative decline. I'm not sure that the pattern will be sufficiently favorable for us by the 17th-18th, as the Pacific is still responding to poor MJO forcing, and the -NAO block won't yet be west based enough to countervail that upstream signal. IMO, as the lagged MJO response phase 8 manifests by 20th-25th, in conjunction w/ continued downwell of positive circulation anomalies/propagation southwestward, the synoptics become much, much better into the last week of the month. The NAO may not peak until the very end of month or beginning of March. But regardless, after the 20th-22nd is when I am most interested.

 

Credit: AER (polar cap)

 

Note upwell and then subsequent 'dripping paint' downwell. This will intensify the -NAO as we move through the last 1/3 of the month, progressively.

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

how about the week before and the week after gaps ? Dec 25 - 31 and Jan 8 - 14 ?

I can show you the stats in another way to illustrate how unusual the lack of snow production is since the first week of January for NYC. These are the previous 10 winters in NYC that had 15.0" or more of snow by January 7th. Notice how most years had a significant increase in snow by February 15th.

NYC snowfall by 1/7......NYC snowfall by 2/15

1/7/18.....17.5"...........19.4" so far

1/7/14.....15.0"...........55.6"

1/7/11.....21.8"...........57.7"

1/7/04.....19.8"...........37.8"

1/7/01.....15.2"...........25.4"

1/7/96.....30.3"...........51.0"

1/7/61.....18.6"...........52.7"

1/7/60.....16.3"..........19.9"

1/7/49.....26.8"..........28.8"

1/7/48.....33.5"..........58.6"

1/7/46.....19.3".........23.6"

 

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can show you the stats in another way to illustrate how unusual the lack of snow production is since the first week of January for NYC. These are the previous 10 winters in NYC that had 15.0" or more of snow by January 7th. Notice how most years had a significant increase in snow by February 15th.

NYC snowfall by 1/7......NYC snowfall by 2/15

1/7/18.....17.5"...........19.4" so far

1/7/14.....15.0"...........55.6"

1/7/11.....21.8"...........57.7"

1/7/04.....19.8"...........37.8"

1/7/01.....15.2"...........25.4"

1/7/96.....30.3"...........51.0"

1/7/61.....18.6"...........52.7"

1/7/60.....16.3"..........19.9"

1/7/49.....26.8"..........28.8"

1/7/48.....33.5"..........58.6"

1/7/46.....19.3".........23.6"

 

1960 - is the closest analog to use for this season and 1960 ended up with 39.2 inches total with 18.5 in March

[WEATHERBUFF]

The year 1959-60 sticks out as neg nao says and also 1948-49....both had good March snowstorms.

[Paragon]

On 2/5/2018 at 8:48 AM, bluewave said:

I think some of the frustration is that NYC hasn't had a warning level snow event since Jan 4th. So it make it feel like the snow is below normal. Even though it's not that far off from reaching the seasonal normal of 25.8. All we need is another productive period after 2/20 to get  everyone that isn't already there to N or maybe AN. Since the 14-15 winter, longer gaps between storms and without snowfall on the ground has been the norm around here.

It's also the fact that most of the predictions are for milder weather for mid to late February.  Many people think that we are done with significant snowfall for the season.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

1960 - is the closest analog to use for this season and 1960 ended up with 39.2 inches total with 18.5 in March

I dont bank on a lot of snow in March anymore for our area lol.  Inland areas sure- probably something like last March can easily happen.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It's also the fact that most of the predictions are for milder weather for mid to late February.  Many people think that we are done with significant snowfall for the season.

The key from late February into March will be getting favorable changes in the Atlantic and Pacific to occur in sync and not out of phase. First, we need the forcing to weaken near the Maritime Continent and allow a stronger ridge to return to Western NOAM. Second, the strat warm must impact the the lower levels of the atmosphere enough for the east based blocking to build back west over Greenland. Hopefully, we can get another window of opportunity for significant snow either in late February or early March.

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The key from late February into March will be getting favorable changes in the Atlantic and Pacific to occur in sync and not out of phase. First, we need the forcing to weaken near the Maritime Continent and allow a stronger ridge to return to Western NOAM. Second, the strat warm must impact the the lower levels of the atmosphere enough for the east based blocking to build back west over Greenland. Hopefully, we can get another window of opportunity for significant snow either in late February or early March.

Well, I do agree with repeating patterns and this season we've seen that when the cold snowy weather occurs it seems to occur near the end or beginning of a month, like from Dec 25-Jan 10 and Jan 25-Feb 10 (more cold than snow but still.)  So if that pattern continues the next such period to look for is Feb 25-Mar 10.  Middle to latter March becomes much more iffy, so if something big (6+) is going to happen in March it'll probably be in the first 10 days.

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Well, I do agree with repeating patterns and this season we've seen that when the cold snowy weather occurs it seems to occur near the end or beginning of a month, like from Dec 25-Jan 10 and Jan 25-Feb 10 (more cold than snow but still.)  So if that pattern continues the next such period to look for is Feb 25-Mar 10.  Middle to latter March becomes much more iffy, so if something big (6+) is going to happen in March it'll probably be in the first 10 days.

Agree-storms after 3/15 are fairly rare especially if you are looking for 6 inches or more...

[Paragon]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree-storms after 3/15 are fairly rare especially if you are looking for 6 inches or more...

Yeah really hard to find 6+ storms after 3/15 and especially 3/20.  Was the last 6+ areawide one after 3/20 the April 1982 blizzard?  Maybe even 3/15.

[sferic]

April 25th 1983 Winter Storm Warning for NYC 2.7 inches in the city, half a foot outside NYC

[CIK62]

Getting out of hand now.   Next 7 days average up to 42degs., or 9degs. AN.

The effects of the SSW shown in posts below, better turn out to be what Fast-Acting-Alka-Selzer is to the upset stomach.

[Rtd208]

 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, sferic said:

April 25th 1983 Winter Storm Warning for NYC 2.7 inches in the city, half a foot outside NYC

I remember that year well and there was no snow in my part of NJ; I was well into the spring flounder run by then. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Yeah really hard to find 6+ storms after 3/15 and especially 3/20.  Was the last 6+ areawide one after 3/20 the April 1982 blizzard?  Maybe even 3/15.

3/19/92 was a 6-7" event though I don't know how widespread it was, followed by 3-4" on the 22nd (usair lga crash due to icing)

[Rtd208]

And just to throw this into the mix, from yesterday.

 

[sferic]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I remember that year well and there was no snow in my part of NJ; I was well into the spring flounder run by then. 

I remember driving to NW Jersey to see the 8 inches they got !

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the majority NYC warning level March snowstorms happened during the first half of the month. Sometimes, March snows in NYC are part of a pattern that is indicative of a transition or attempted transition to an El Nino. The snowstorm last March was in the midst of an attempted El Nino transition. But it ran out of gas and the ENSO regions began to cool again. So it will be interesting to see if this current increasing downwelling kelvin wave is part of a move back to El Nino or just another fake out.

True, late season snowstorms are indicative of a possible el nino developing (April 1982 and April 1997 are great examples of it).  Maybe if we get another very late snow it will be an indication of this.

[SnoSki14]

The Pacific looks very crappy, any ridging that builds gets knocked down quickly, that's going to negate any NAO blocking. EPS this afternoon already showing a LR warming trend, Euro collapses MJO shortly after it enters phase 8. 

That record MJO 6 amplitude basically put a stop to winter and completely shut down any hope of a more favorable pattern, La Nina is now fully in control. Prospects for snow for rest of winter remain bleak.

Also those thinking we may get late season snows (March 15 onward) should prepare to be disappointed. There's a reason late winter to April snows are historic.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

I remember that year well and there was no snow in my part of NJ; I was well into the spring flounder run by then. 

That was 1.5 inches at JFK their latest accumulation (April 19-20)

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

3/19/92 was a 6-7" event though I don't know how widespread it was, followed by 3-4" on the 22nd (usair lga crash due to icing)

I think I remember that- 2nd event was also predicted to be 6-8 but ended up being 3-5 instead

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

 

a record Kara block? That's how we got the historic 1/2016 snow storm.

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Pacific looks very crappy, any ridging that builds gets knocked down quickly, that's going to negate any NAO blocking. EPS this afternoon already showing a LR warming trend, Euro collapses MJO shortly after it enters phase 8. 

That record MJO 6 amplitude basically put a stop to winter and completely shut down any hope of a more favorable pattern, La Nina is now fully in control. Prospects for snow for rest of winter remain bleak.

Also those thinking we may get late season snows (March 15 onward) should prepare to be disappointed. There's a reason late winter to April snows are historic.

You have been taunting about warmth all winter from November lol

The EPS also has been too ridge happy in the long range only to cool down as time goes on

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The latest run of the EPS weeklies has the Atlantic and Pacific out of phase for us. Gorgeous looking -AO and -NAO, but a really negative PNA. So they produce a December 2012 look-alike pattern with a Western trough and Eastern Ridge. Hopefully, the Pacific part of the forecast can improve and we  get another window for significant snow in late February and early March.

Isotherm thinks a MECS type pattern is possible at the end of this month.

[weatherpruf]

50 minutes ago, sferic said:

I remember driving to NW Jersey to see the 8 inches they got !

i would have done the same, but at that age i was more interested in girls and fishing. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

3/19/92 was a 6-7" event though I don't know how widespread it was, followed by 3-4" on the 22nd (usair lga crash due to icing)

I remember those pretty well because it was really the first significant snow in a few years in these parts. Both IIRC ended as rain.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Pacific looks very crappy, any ridging that builds gets knocked down quickly, that's going to negate any NAO blocking. EPS this afternoon already showing a LR warming trend, Euro collapses MJO shortly after it enters phase 8. 

That record MJO 6 amplitude basically put a stop to winter and completely shut down any hope of a more favorable pattern, La Nina is now fully in control. Prospects for snow for rest of winter remain bleak.

Also those thinking we may get late season snows (March 15 onward) should prepare to be disappointed. There's a reason late winter to April snows are historic.

Ok so I’ll make sure to discount all the Mets that completely dissagree with you and break out the shorts. 

We got it, you like warm weather

[Rtd208]

 

[weatherpruf]

I don't know what's gonna happen but i will say it's been awhile without too much real activity of any significance and we are heading into the prime of the season ( some years anyway ) and it seems to me if things don't get cranking soon then they probably won't. But if I knew things for sure I wouldn't be sitting here I'd be trading stocks or something. We get winters that are stinkers. it happens. We had some early action so it isn't a total loss like some years, and yeah some parts here did well. 

[Rtd208]

And here is another opinion, Steve D. from this morning. Many different opinions out there as we head into the second half of the month and into March.