Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Current temp 27/DP 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 6degs. AN. Both GFS/CMC look similar again in wasting 2.5" liquid as Rain, over next 10 days. Month to date is -1.2. Should be +3 by the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 A storm will bring accumulating snow across interior sections of the region today and tomorrow. That snow will likely be accompanied by a period of sleet, freezing rain, and possibly plain rain. An area running across northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State into central New England appears likely to see 3”-6”snow. Cities such as Middletown and Poughkeepsie should pick up 3”-6” snow. Local amounts could reach 8” in that area. A coating to perhaps an inch of snow is possible in and around New York City by the time the storm departs. Afterward, a sustained period of milder weather appears likely. This is the milder period that had first been picked up on the EPS. The guidance has now moved into decent agreement on this pattern, which will likely continue through much or all of the third week of February. Considering this agreement, I now have sufficient confidence that my initial thinking of a cold anomaly for February will be incorrect and regret that likely outcome. I waited until this week to be sure that the guidance was, in fact, on the right track given the large amount of uncertainty that existed. It is a closer call on the issue of monthly snowfall, as there could still be sufficient time during the closing 7-10 days of the month for a storm or series of storms to bring accumulating snowfall to much of the region. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/6 32.3° (1.2° below normal) 2/10 32.5-34.3° (2/6 estimate: 32.1°-34.5°) 2/15 35.1°-38.3° (2/6 estimate: 34.6°-38.2°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 55% (2/6 estimate: 54%). The 2/5 MJO had an amplitude of 3.883. The previous daily record was 3.286, which was set in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A storm will bring accumulating snow across interior sections of the region today and tomorrow. That snow will likely be accompanied by a period of sleet, freezing rain, and possibly plain rain. An area running across northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State into central New England appears likely to see 3”-6”snow. Cities such as Middletown and Poughkeepsie should pick up 3”-6” snow. Local amounts could reach 8” in that area. A coating to perhaps an inch of snow is possible in and around New York City by the time the storm departs. Afterward, a sustained period of milder weather appears likely. This is the milder period that had first been picked up on the EPS. The guidance has now moved into decent agreement on this pattern, which will likely continue through much or all of the third week of February. Considering this agreement, I now have sufficient confidence that my initial thinking of a cold anomaly for February will be incorrect and regret that likely outcome. I waited until this week to be sure that the guidance was, in fact, on the right track given the large amount of uncertainty that existed. It is a closer call on the issue of monthly snowfall, as there could still be sufficient time during the closing 7-10 days of the month for a storm or series of storms to bring accumulating snowfall to much of the region. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/6 32.3° (1.2° below normal) 2/10 32.5-34.3° (2/6 estimate: 32.1°-34.5°) 2/15 35.1°-38.3° (2/6 estimate: 34.6°-38.2°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 55% (2/6 estimate: 54%). The 2/5 MJO had an amplitude of 3.883. The previous daily record was 3.286, which was set in 1985. We need to bank on that late period, but our window is closing. Thanks for your regular input here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Does the below signify hope? PNA going positive and AO negative. The bad - MJO looks to die in phase 7, or even go back to phase 6! A lot of us are close to average. I would be shocked if we did not get at least one more solid event before the close of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Does the below signify hope? PNA going positive and AO negative. The bad - MJO looks to die in phase 7, or even go back to phase 6! A lot of us are close to average. I would be shocked if we did not get at least one more solid event before the close of March. Every other model has it going into 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 WAR and SE ridge will continue to be a player in our pattern as long as the Maritime Continent forcing holds on. The drop in the AO longer range is east based back near the Kara and Barents Seas. Hopefully, we can start to see some improvements in this pattern later in February and early in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: WAR and SE ridge will continue to be a player in our pattern as long as the Maritime Continent forcing holds on. The drop in the AO longer range is east based back near the Kara and Barents Seas. Hopefully, we can start to see some improvements in this pattern later in February and early in March. Until then it will act like a typical nina Feb accept for a few days here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Until then it will act like a typical nina Feb accept for a few days here and there. Sooner or later you knew a more Nina-like pattern had to show up. But the record PMM from December into early January was able to dominate and produce the period of record cold with the blizzard. Pacific Meridional Mode is very positive due to warming off the Baja, and cooling on and south of the equator. PMM values in the 99th percentile.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode… pic.twitter.com/mIVTxov5aQ 4:03 PM - 5 Feb 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: Sooner or later you knew a more Nina-like pattern had to show up. But the record PMM from December into early January were able to dominate and produce the period of record cold with the blizzard. Pacific Meridional Mode is very positive due to warming off the Baja, and cooling on and south of the equator. PMM values in the 99th percentile.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode… pic.twitter.com/mIVTxov5aQ 4:03 PM - 5 Feb 2018 In the meantime it helps inland locations catch up on their snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Including todays 0.5 inches of snow reported at Central Park, the total since January 1, 1991, which will be the begin date when they calculate the new 30 year seasonal snowfall averages for 1991 through 2020, the Park has received 840.3 inches of snow. If Central Park receives 59.7 inches of snow between now and December 31,2020 NYC will have a 30 inch seasonal snowfall average, which has not happened since the 1930's. They are already assured a 28 inch plus average which has not happened since the 1941-1970 average. Let's hope the next 2 1/2 years are not like the late 90's. I realize with a little less they could still reach it with rounding, but I'm trying to play it safe here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Picked up a coating to around a half inch of snow/sleet this morning. Currently have rain falling with 0.13" so for today. Temp 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Up to 0.82" for the day...Temp bouncing around, back up to 42 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Still not a thermal runaway, but tomorrow looks like coldest day of the next 15: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Strong burst of winds from SSW here in Miller Place with heavy rain. Suddenly up to 50F after hovering in mid 30s all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 A lot of things have to go right and teles can't be flipping from one thing to the next every 3 days. A SSW doesn't guarantee anything either, blocking can lag by 2-3 weeks and where it sets up matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 8degs AN. Month to date is -0.6. Should be +4 by the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Models are looking much better by next weekend AO free falls next weekend on the Euro NAO also goes negative next weekend on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 The storm responsible for yesterday’s snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain has now departed. With the mercury likely pushing 50° during the upcoming weekend, it may appear that winter has departed, as well. Snowfall totals around the region included: Albany: 6.2” (Seasonal: 33.0” 5.0” below normal) Bridgeport: 0.5” (Seasonal: 20.6” 5.2” above normal) Islip: 0.1” (Seasonal: 28.2” 14.0” above normal) New York City: 0.5” (Seasonal: 19.4” 5.0” above normal) Newark: 0.6” (Seasonal: 18.4” 2.3” above normal) Through the medium-term, temperatures are likely to run warmer than normal. This milder regime will complete erase February’s cold anomaly to date and begin to build a warm anomaly for the month. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 2/7 33.0° (0.6° below normal) 2/10 32.9-34.1° (2/7 estimate: 32.5°-34.3°) 2/15 35.7°-38.5° (2/7 estimate: 35.1°-38.3°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of an above normal monthly anomaly: 56% (2/7 estimate: 55%). The AO, which had a preliminary value of +0.808 yesterday is forecast to go negative to strongly negative after mid-month. However, there remains greater uncertainty than usual. The forecast 500 mb pattern evolution suggests a measure of caution in terms of how long the AO might remain negative and perhaps how strongly negative it might fall. Further, the February 15-29, 1974-2017 cases when the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.000 or above saw the AO negative 57% of the time. By Phase 1, the figure for AO- values fell to 36% (and 19% when the amplitude was < 1.000). Therefore, a scenario where the AO could have difficulty staying negative for a prolonged period should the MJO progress into Phase 1 later this month cannot be ruled out just yet. The 2/6 MJO had an amplitude of 4.018. The previous daily record was 3.129, which was set in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 While the GFS shows snow on the 15--16, the four ensembles that make up the 45-Day Outlook are all well AN temps. for that time slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Mixed signals for today. Brief summary: Good- MJO heading through 821 AO going negative NAO going negative Bad- PNA staying negative (although heading towards neutral) EPO trending positive, although not greatly so. They all tend to "cross" shortly after the 15th. Could this be a storm opportunity? I still find it hard to believe that we could go from Jan 5 through the remainder of the winter without at least 1 moderate to heavy event. This is not 2011 2012 or 2001 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 34 minutes ago, CIK62 said: While the GFS shows snow on the 15--16, the four ensembles that make up the 45-Day Outlook are all well AN temps. for that time slot. If anyone looked at your posts exclusively they would think this winter has been tropical. I'm up to 30 inches so far this season and this month has been pretty good so far with 3 events adding up to 6 inches. Nothing to complain about in HV this year and still plenty of winter left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I still find it hard to believe that we could go from Jan 5 through the remainder of the winter without at least 1 moderate to heavy event. This is not 2011 2012 or 2001 2002. This gap between warning levels snows in NYC is very unusual. This will be the first time since 1971 that a first week of January warning level snow isn't followed up with another by February 9th. NYC warning levels snows 6"+ first week of January and the follow up storms: 1/4/2018.....??? 1/7/2017..........2/9/2017 1/3/2014.......1/21/2014 12/30/00.........1/21/2001 1/7/1996........2/3/1996 1/1/1971........None 1/2/1925.......1/20/1925 1/3/1905......1/24/1905 1/3/1904.....None 1/5/1893.....2/17/1893 1/1/1877.....None 1/1/1869....1/19/1869 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 The other good news is that we are finally in an active storm pattern-Saturday's event will make 3 in one week. Been awhile since we've seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 56 minutes ago, bluewave said: This gap between warning levels snows in NYC is very unusual. This will be the first time since 1971 that a first week of January warning level snow isn't followed up with another by February 9th. NYC warning levels snows 6"+ first week of January and the follow up storms: 1/4/2018.....??? 1/7/2017..........2/9/2017 1/3/2014.......1/21/2014 12/30/00.........1/21/2001 1/7/1996........2/3/1996 1/1/1971........None 1/2/1925.......1/20/1925 1/3/1905......1/24/1905 1/3/1904.....None 1/5/1893.....2/17/1893 1/1/1877.....None 1/1/1869....1/19/1869 how about the week before and the week after gaps ? Dec 25 - 31 and Jan 8 - 14 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Yesterday's 0.89" was largest single day event since Oct 30th here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This gap between warning levels snows in NYC is very unusual. This will be the first time since 1971 that a first week of January warning level snow isn't followed up with another by February 9th. NYC warning levels snows 6"+ first week of January and the follow up storms: 1/4/2018.....??? 1/7/2017..........2/9/2017 1/3/2014.......1/21/2014 12/30/00.........1/21/2001 1/7/1996........2/3/1996 1/1/1971........None 1/2/1925.......1/20/1925 1/3/1905......1/24/1905 1/3/1904.....None 1/5/1893.....2/17/1893 1/1/1877.....None 1/1/1869....1/19/1869 Amazing. We still have through March 20. Hopefully we cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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