February 2018 Temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble

[Roger Smith]

Welcome back to the temperature forecast contest, February 2018 edition ... the Regional Rumble got off to a great start with all of our regional subforums having at least one entrant, provisional scoring can be seen in the January thread, and this will be finalized on February 1st.

For this month, as always, the forecast challenge is to predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) for these nine locations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

The contest entry deadline (no late penalties) will be Feb. 1st at 06z with this year's penalty timetable relaxed to 1% per 4h late through 18z Feb. 2nd, then 1% per hour from then on. 

If you are the sole entrant for your regional forum, try to get at least one partner from your regional banter thread perhaps. I am going to update the regional forum invitations today. 

Good luck! 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA -0.2

NYC -0.8

BOS -1.2

ORD -1.9

ATL +1.6

IAH +1.5

DEN +1.7

PHX +2.8

SEA +1.8

NYC subforum

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

DCA -3.4

NYC -5.0

BOS -4.4

ORD -2.0

ATL -1.4

IAH +1.3

DEN +4.3

PHX +3.5

SEA +2.1

NYC subforum

[Orangeburgwx]

DCA: -2.5

NYC: -1.7

BOS: -.8

ORD: -2.9

ATL: -1.1

IAH: +1

DEN: -2.7

PHX: +.4

SEA: -1.5

Southeastern States subforum

 

•  

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5     0.0     -0.5      -1.0    1.0     1.0        0.5      1.0     0.0 

[Tom]

DCA: -2.4

NYC: -2.2

BOS: -2.2

ORD: -4.2

ATL: -1.9

IAH: -0.8

DEN: -0.9

PHX: +0.5

SEA: +0.7

 

Philly

[Rjay]

DCA -1.5

NYC -1.5

BOS -1.5

ORD -1.5

ATL -0.5

IAH  +1.0

DEN +4.0

PHX +4.0

SEA +2.0

NYC sub

[wxallannj]

DCA -1.5

NYC -1.8

BOS -1.3

ORD -2.4

ATL -0.8

IAH  +0.7

DEN +2.4

PHX +3.5

SEA +2.2

NYC sub

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.8     -1.4     -1.8      -3.0    0.2     1.6        5.0      6.0     5.0

 

NYC subforum

[nrgjeff]

DCA -1 NYC -2 BOS -2

ORD -4 ATL 0 IAH +1

DEN +3 PHX +5 SEA +3

Tennessee Valley

 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-4.4    -3.8     -3.0     -6.3    -3.9    -1.3        2.6      8.1    3.1

 

[wxdude64]

DCA: -1.6

NYC: -2.1

BOS: -1.9

ORD: -2.9

ATL: -0.5

IAH: +0.6

DEN: +1.8

PHX: +3.4

SEA: +1.8

 

[Stebo]

DCA: -1.4

NYC: -2.0

BOS: -2.6

ORD: -1.2

ATL: -0.5

IAH: +0.7

DEN: +1.2

PHX: +1.5

SEA: +1.2

GL/OV sub forum

[jaxjagman]

DCA: -1.8

NYC: -2.2

BOS: -2.8

ORD: -1.8

ATL: +0.1

IAH: +1.1

DEN: +2.7

PHX: +4.7

SEA: +3.2

 

TV

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA...NYC...BOS        IAD...ORD...ATL             SEA...PHX...DEN

-2.3...-2.4...-2.6         -1.3...-2.5...-3.2            +1.3...+0.5...+1.7

[Roger Smith]

I have the feeling the cold pattern will flip near the 15th to 18th with very mild weather ending the month in the central and eastern, hence these numbers (we will be around -5 before this) ... west warm all month. 

____ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +3.0 _ --1.5 _ +0.5 ___+2.0 _+4.5 _+5.3

[Mercurial]

DCA: +0.8

NYC: +0.4

BOS: +0.6

ORD: +2.4

ATL: +1.1

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +2.0

PHX: +2.4

SEA: +2.5

[bkviking]

Crap - late. 

 

DCA: -1.0

NYC: -1.2

BOS: -1.2

ORD: -2.1

ATL: -0.5

IAH: +0.3

DEN: +1.5

PHX: +2.8

SEA: +1.5

[Roger Smith]

Relaxed late penalties this year (1% each four hours to 18z 2nd) will make that a rather gentle 2% deduction ... we just passed from 3% to 4% ... so I am hoping some of the other January participants will enter soon before the larger penalties begin.

Table of entries will follow when it seems that all entries have been posted. 

[mappy]

sorry!

DCA -1.3

NYC -1.0

BOS -1.8

ORD -1.6

ATL -0.2

IAH  +1.3

DEN +2.0

PHX +3.0

SEA +1.5

Mid Atlantic sub

[dmillz25]

DCA -1.0

NYC -1.9

BOS -2.5

ORD -2.5

ATL -0.9

IAH  +1.3

DEN +3.0

PHX +3.0

SEA +2.5

NYC subforum

beter late than never.

[H2O]

DCA -0.9

NYC -1.4

BOS -2.1

ORD -2.0

ATL -0.1

IAH  +1.0

DEN +2.5

PHX +3.0

SEA +1.8

 

Mid-Atl

[so_whats_happening]

Oh man completely lost track was going to post last night but fell asleep.

DCA: +1.4

NYC:+0.8

BOS:-1.1

ORD: +1.4

ATL:+2.3

IAH:+1.8

DEN:+2.5

PHX: +1.7

SEA:+0.8

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for February 2018

 

Forecaster ______ Region ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith _____ C + W ___+2.5 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _--1.5 _+0.5 ____+2.0 _+4.5 _+5.3

so_whats_happening

______ (-4%) ____PA / NY __+1.4 _+0.8 _--1.1 ___ +1.4 _+2.3 _+1.8 ____+2.5 _+1.7 _+0.8

Mercurial ________C + W ___+0.8 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___ +2.4 _+1.1 _+1.5 ____+2.0 _+2.4 _+2.5

Scotty Lightning ___ PHL ____+0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____+0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 

 

___Normal _______ -- -- _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ______0.0 __0.0 __0.0

 

hudsonvalley21 ___ NYC ____--0.2 _--0.8 _--1.2 ___ --1.9 _+1.6 _+1.5 ____+1.7 _+2.8 _+1.8

DonSutherland.1 __ NYC ____--0.8 _--1.4 _--1.8 ___ --3.0 _+0.2 _+1.6 ____+5.0 _+6.0 _+5.0

H2O _____ (-4%) _ M A ____--0.9 _--1.4 _--2.1 ___ --2.0 _--0.1 _+1.0 ____+2.5 _+3.0 _+1.8

BKViking __ (-2%) _NYC ____--1.0 _--1.2 _--1.2 ___ --2.1 _--0.5 _+0.3 ____+1.5 _+2.8 _+1.5

dmillz25 __ (-4%) _ NYC ____--1.0 _--1.9 _--2.5 ___ --2.5 _--0.9 _+1.3 ____+3.0 _+3.0 _+2.5

nrg Jeff _________ TNV ____ --1.0 _--2.0 _--2.0 ___ --4.0 __0.0 _+1.0 ____+3.0 _+5.0 _+3.0

mappy ___ (-4%) _ M A ____ --1.3 _--1.0 _--1.8 ___ --1.6 _--0.2 _+1.3 ____+2.0 _+3.0 _+1.5

 

___ Consensus ___ -- -- _____--1.3 _--1.7 _--1.8 ___ --2.0 _--0.5 _+1.0 ____+2.0 _+3.0 _+1.8

 

Stebo __________ GL/OV ___ --1.4 _--2.0 _--2.6 ___ --1.2 _--0.5 _+0.7 ____+1.2 _+1.5 _+1.2

RJay ____________ NYC ____--1.5 _--1.5 _--1.5 ___ --1.5 _--0.5 _+1.0 ____+4.0 _+4.0 _+2.0

wxallannj ________ NYC ____--1.5 _--1.8 _--1.3 ___ --2.4 _--0.8 _+0.7 ____+2.4 _+3.5 _+2.2

wxdude64 _______ M A _____--1.6 _--2.1 _--1.9 ___ --2.9 _--0.5 _+0.6 ____+1.8 _+3.4 _+1.8

jaxjagman _______ TNV ____--1.8 _--2.2 _--2.8 ___ --1.8 _+0.1 _+1.1 ____+2.7 _+4.7 _+3.2

H2OTown_WX____ N E _____--2.3 _--2.4 _--2.6 ___ --2.5 _--3.2 _--1.3 ____+1.7 _+0.5 _+1.3

Tom ____________ PHL ____--2.4 _--2.2 _--2.2 ___ --4.2 _--1.9 _--0.8 ____--0.9 _+0.5 _+0.7

Orangeburgwx _____ SE ____--2.5 _--1.7 _--0.8 ___ --2.9 _--1.1 _+1.0 ____--2.7 _+0.4 _--1.5

CPcantmeasuresnow NYC ___ --3.4 _--5.0 _--4.4 ___ --2.0 _--1.4 _+1.3 ____+4.3 _+3.5 _+2.1

RodneyS _________ M A ___ --4.4 _--3.8 _--3.0 ___ --6.3 _--3.9 _--1.3 ____+2.6 _+8.1 _+3.1

______________________________________________________________________________

so far, 21 entries, consensus (median) is 11th ranked value.

highest forecasts in red, lowest in blue (Normal is lowest for PHX).

mostly the same entrants as January, two new faces, welcome to Orangeburgwx who is handling the SE duties and CPcantmeasuresnow who adds a seventh participant for the NYC crew. The only forum to see any downward change in turnout is TNV at 2 (had 3 last month). 

Good luck to everyone, and hold on tight because this looks like a wild ride. 

Consensus is that after a cold start things may reverse at least partially, otherwise I think the eastern and some central forecasts might be 2-3 deg lower. A warm scenario for the west is more widely shared. Lots of spread especially for the eastern three and ORD. DEN will obviously be near a frontal boundary much of the time and this leads to a variety of forecasts (their standard deviation is also higher than most).

[Roger Smith]

We continue to track the snowfall contest forecasts in this post. I have added total snowfalls for each forecaster, and an error column (dep) which for most is the difference between forecast and current snowfall totals. The few forecasts marked in red have been overtaken by actuals, and they count double in this departure column as it is calculated by adding twice the error values to total departure. Here's an example of why that is so. Let's say everyone in the contest was 100" above the actual snowfall but one forecaster had one error of 10" at one station that was a lower forecast than actual, and every other forecast made was above the actual. That one forecaster would then have 110" more in total forecasts than actual for the other eight locations since the -10" value would bring his total to 100" so his total error is 110" + 10" or 120".

This also tells you that once you are passed by actual values for any forecast, each 0.1" at that location will count 0.1" towards your total error while others not yet passed will be improving by 0.1" so relatively speaking, your red marked errors are counting twice as they increase. 

 

Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts

... this will continue to be updated to end of contest in this location ...

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total _____ dep

 

so_whats_happening___ 22.0 _ 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 _ 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0 ___ 438.0 ___ 122.2

Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3 ___ 533.3 ___ 129.1

Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0___ 460.0 ___ 128.2

dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.0_ 70.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0 ___ 528.0 ___ 112.0

wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 _ 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 _ 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5 ___ 482.3 ___ 148.3

hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0 ___ 466.5 ____ 98.5

DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7 ___ 478.3 ____ 81.7

H2OTown_WX ________ 14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1 ___ 368.4 ___ 130.4

 

___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0___459.0___103.0

 

Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5 ___ 398.5 ___ 130.7

wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 _ 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0  ___340.3 ___ 203.5

BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 _ 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0___511.0 ___ 117.0

RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 _ 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _105.0 ___536.0 ___ 113.4

Scotty Lightning (SD) ___10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0 ___ 486.0 ___ 123.2

RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0 ___ 384.4 ___ 155.0

SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0 _ 75.0 ___ 367.0 ___ 187.8

 

Table of departures (errors) 

Numbers in red show forecasts already passed by actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to increases.

Numbers in black show forecasts still below actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to decreases.

 

Rank _FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total dep

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 ______ 07.3 _ 06.6 _ 06.5 __ 12.8 _ 06.8 _ 00.3 __ 30.1 _ 03.3 _ 08.0 ____ 81.7

 2 hudsonvalley21________07.7 _ 01.1 _ 02.9 __ 10.9 _ 10.0 _ 21.3 __ 38.3 _ 06.0 _ 00.3 ____ 98.5

( 3) __ Consensus _____06.6 _07.2 _06.5 __12.8 _10.0_16.5__30.1_06.0 _07.3 ___103.0

 3 dmillz25 _____________09.2 _ 00.1 _ 02.9 __ 30.9_ 09.0 _ 07.3 __ 34.3 _ 11.0 _ 07.3 ___ 112.0

 4 RJay ________________02.2 _ 00.9 _ 10.1 __ 13.9 _ 06.0 _07.7 __ 54.3 _ 02.0 _ 16.3 ___ 113.4

 5 BKViking _____________03.2 _ 07.9 _ 10.1 __03.9 _ 11.0 _ 02.3 __ 51.3 _ 06.0 _ 21.3___ 117.0 

 6 so_whats_happening___14.2 _ 02.9 _ 03.1 __ 05.1 _ 25.0 _ 27.3 __ 27.3 _ 10.0 _ 07.3 ___ 122.2

 7 Scotty Lightning (SD) __ 02.2 _ 17.9 _ 14.9 __ 18.9 _ 06.0 _ 02.3 __ 59.3_ 00.0 _ 01.7 ___ 123.2

 8 Roger Smith _________ 11.7 _ 00.9 _ 00.1 __ 03.1 _ 16.0 _ 32.3 __ 29.3 _ 13.5 _ 21.3___ 128.2

 9 Tom _______________ 11.8 _ 02.9 _ 03.2 __ 23.3 _ 07.6 _ 08.5 __ 45.8 _ 05.4 _ 20.6 ___ 129.1

10 H2OTown_WX ________06.6 _ 17.7 _ 18.7 __ 08.3 _ 22.3 _ 18.9 __ 14.9 _ 01.4 _ 21.6 ___ 130.4

11 Stebo _______________04.7 _ 07.2 _ 09.9 __ 13.9 _ 03.7 _ 47.3 __ 24.8 _ 03.0 _ 16.2 ___ 130.7

12 wxdude64____________08.5 _ 13.2 _ 22.4 __ 18.7 _ 05.5 _ 10.1 __ 51.9 _ 07.2 _ 10.8 ___ 148.3

13 RodneyS ____________ 00.3 _ 15.9 _ 24.1 __ 16.3 _ 15.3 _ 16.5 __ 26.4 _ 08.5 _ 31.7 ___ 155.0

14 SnoSki14 ____________05.8 _ 35.9 _ 24.9 __ 03.9 _ 16.0 _ 32.3 __ 29.3 _ 26.0 _ 13.7 ___ 187.8

15 wxallannj ___________  04.5 _ 13.9 _ 26.9 __ 01.9 _ 18.0 _ 59.3 __ 32.3 _ 15.0 _ 31.7  ___203.5

 

Amounts to date _______ 7.8 _40.9 _59.9 __36.1 _61.0_112.3__25.7 _4.0 _ 88.7 __ 436.4

... snowfalls through Apr 21st ... updated daily (when snow falls).

Apr 2nd _ NYC added 5.5" and BOS 0.7" ... Apr 4th _ ORD added 0.2" and DTW 0.1"

Apr 5th _ BUF added 0.5" and BTV 0.1"

Apr 6th _ BUF added 2.0" BTV 1.6" DTW 1.0" BOS 0.6" and DEN ?? (about 0.5", current report is msg).

Apr 9th _ BUF added 0.4" weekend, BTV added 0.4" and ORD added 2.0" today. DTW added 0.3". 

Apr 10th _ BUF added 0.3"

Apr 14-15 ... BUF added 0.9" and BTV added 1.3" ORD added 0.2"

Apr 16 ... BUF added 1.8" ORD added 0.3" DTW added 0.2"

Apr 17 ... DTW added 0.8" and BUF added 0.3" 

Apr 18 ... BUF added 0.7" ORD added 0.4"

Apr 19 ... ORD added 0.1"

Apr 20 ... BTV added 0.8"

Apr 21 ... DEN added 1.3"

Apr 24 ... DEN added 0.2"

NOTE: Unless more than 15" more snow falls at DEN or any snow falls elsewhere, these standings can be considered final.

______________________________________________________________________

15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked).

Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold.

Least snowfall forecasts are shown in italics.

Forecasts passed by totals to date are in red. 

______________________________________________________________________________

CLOSEST FORECASTS (to date) ___________ CLOSEST TOTAL SNOWFALL (current 436.4")

DCA _ RodneyS (+0.3) ___________________ 1. so_whats_happening _____ +1.6"

NYC _ dmillz25 (+0.1) ___________________ (2) Consensus ____________+22.6"

BOS _ Roger Smith (+0.1) ________________ 2. Roger Smith ___________ +23.6"

ORD _ wxallannj (+1.9) __________________ 3. hudsonvalley21 _________+30.1"

DTW _ Stebo (-3.7) ______________________4.  Stebo ________________--37.9"

BUF _ DonSutherland.1 (+0.3) _____________5. DonSutherland.1 ________+41.9"

DEN _ H2OTown_Wx (+14.9) _____________ 6. wxdude64 ______________+45.9"

SEA _ Scotty Lightning (0.0) ______________ 7. Scotty Lightning__________+49.6"

BTV _ Scotty Lightning (-1.7) ______________8. RodneyS _______________--52.0"

[Roger Smith]

Here we go with the anomaly trackers, now updated after the first three weeks of February ... I left the p14d and p21d lines in the table to compare outcomes with prediction. And I left the old p24d up for comparison with the p21d, 21d actual, as well as the old p28d from 15th to compare with the new p28d. Scoring (provisional) may begin after today's update, and further daily updates can be expected. 

___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

________ (7d) _______--2.0 _--0.6 _+0.2 ___ --8.1 _+1.3 _+3.0 ____+4.3 _+6.8 _+5.5

_______ ( 14 d) ______+1.5 _+2.7 _+2.2 ___ --7.1 _+4.6 _+0.2 ____+1.0 _+5.9 _+1.9

________ (21 d) _____ +5.5 _+6.0 _+5.3 ___ --2.2 _+8.9 _+4.5e___--1.0e_+3.0 _--1.0

________ (24 d) _____ +6.0 _+6.4 _+5.6 ___ --1.0_+10.4_+5.5 ____--3.0 _+1.4 _--2.1

________ (26 d) _____ +6.2 _+6.5 _+5.9 ___ --0.1_+10.4_+5.4 ____--3.0 _+0.6 _--2.3

_ _ _ _ _ (28 d) ______+6.3 _+6.7 _+6.4 ___ +1.1_+10.1 _+6.1 ____--2.6 __0.0 _--2.3

 

March 1st -- All monthly anomalies are now confirmed and scoring is complete. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for February 2018

Scoring is based on provisional end of month anomalies posted and updated in the previous post. For five of the first six stations, no raw scores of 60+ will occur, and these will be scored by rule 3 (see post 1, January) which sets a schedule of scores from 60 down to zero, while ORD and the three western stations have some high scores allowing the regular scoring to proceed. Late penalties apply to the set scores as well as to those that are directly calculated. Set scores for Normal and Consensus can be adjusted to fit the sequence and do not change the sequence of scores for actual forecasters. The sequence is 60, 55, 50, 45, 40, 36, 33, 30, 27, 24, 21, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 0 for 21 forecasts.

All raw scores before late penalties applied are in orange type now and italics, only the second line of scoring counts for these forecasters.

The eastern plus central (e/c) subtotals are for information only, they don't affect the overall totals.

High scores for locations in red, for groups of three in bold. 

 

Forecaster ______ Region___DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent__c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTAL

 

___Normal _______ -- -- ____ 42 _ 45 _ 53 ___ 140 ___ 78 _ 33 _ 05 ___ 116 __256 __ 48 _100_ 54 __ 202 ___ 458

 

so_whats_happening PA/NY __55 _ 55 _ 40 ___ 150 ___ 94 _ 60 _ 60 ___ 214_ 364 ___ 00 _ 66 _38 _ 104

_________ (-4%) __________ 53 _ 53 _ 38 ___ 144 ___ 90 _ 58 _ 58 ___206__350 __ 00 _ 63 _ 36 __ 099 ___ 449

Scotty Lightning ___ PHL ____ 45 _ 45 _ 50 ___ 140 ___ 58 _ 45 _ 27 ___ 130 __270 __ 38 _ 80 _ 54 __ 172 ___ 442

Orangeburgwx _____ SE ____ 04 _ 21 _ 45 ___ 070 ___ 20 _ 10 _ 27 ___ 057 __ 127 __98 _ 92 _ 84 __ 274___ 401

Mercurial ________C + W ___ 50 _ 50 _ 55 ___ 155 ___ 74 _ 50 _ 50 ___ 174 __329 __ 08 _ 52 _ 04 __ 064 ___ 393

hudsonvalley21 ___ NYC ____ 40 _ 40 _ 36 ___ 116 ___ 40 _ 55 _ 50 ___ 145 __261 __ 14 _ 44 _ 18 __ 076 ___ 337

Roger Smith _____ C + W ___ 60 _ 60 _ 60 ___ 180 ___ 62 _ 06 _08 ___ 076 __256 __ 08 _ 10 _ 00 __ 018 ___ 274

Stebo __________ GL/OV ___ 18 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 040 ___ 54 _ 24 _ 14 ___ 092 __ 132__ 24 _ 70 _ 30 __ 124 ___ 256

mappy __________ M A ____ 21 _ 36 _ 24 ___ 081 ___ 46 _ 27 _ 40 ___ 113_194 ___ 08 _ 40 _ 24 _ 072

_________ (-4%) __________20 _ 35 _ 23 ___ 078 ___ 44 _ 26 _ 38 ___ 108 __186 __ 08 _ 38 _ 23 __ 069 ___ 255

BKViking _________NYC ____30 _ 33 _ 36 ___ 099 ___ 36 _ 24 _ 06 ___ 066 __165___ 18 _ 44 _ 24 _ 086

__________ (-2%) _________29 _ 32 _ 35 ___ 096 ___ 35 _ 24 _ 06 ___ 065 __161 __ 18 _ 43 _ 24 __ 085 ___ 246

Tom ____________ PHL ____ 06 _ 08 _ 12 ___ 026 ___ 00 _ 04 _ 04 ___ 008 __ 034 __66 _ 90 _ 40 __ 196 ___ 230

 

___ Consensus ___ -- -- _____21 _ 21 _ 24 ___ 066 ___ 38 _ 24 _ 27 ___ 089 __ 155 __ 08 _ 40 _ 18 __ 066 ___ 221

 

H2O ____________ M A ____ 33 _ 30 _ 14 ___ 077 ___ 38 _ 30 _ 27 ___ 095_172 ___ 00 _ 40 _ 18 _ 058

_________ (-4%) __________32 _ 29 _ 13 ___ 074 ___ 36 _ 29 _ 26 ___ 091 __165__ 00 _ 38 _ 17 __ 055 ___ 220

DonSutherland.1 __ NYC ____ 36 _ 30 _ 24 ___ 090 ___ 18 _ 40 _ 55 ___ 113 __203 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___ 203

RJay ____________ NYC ____16 _ 24 _ 27 ___ 067 ___ 48 _ 24 _ 27 ___ 099 __ 166 __00 _ 20 _ 14 __ 034 ___ 200

H2OTown_WX____ N E _____ 08 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 020 ___ 28 _ 02 _ 02 ___ 032 __ 052 __14 _ 90 _ 28 __ 132 ___ 184

dmillz25 _________ NYC ____30 _ 16 _ 10 ___ 056 ___ 28 _ 12 _ 40 ___ 080_136 ___ 00 _ 40 _ 04 _ 044

__________ (-4%) _________29 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 054 ___ 27 _ 12 _ 38 ___ 077 __131 __ 00 _ 38 _ 04 __ 042 ___ 173

wxallannj ________ NYC ____16 _ 18 _ 30 ___ 064 ___ 30 _ 14 _ 14 ___ 058 __ 122 __00 _ 30 _ 10 __ 040 ___ 162

wxdude64 _______ M A ____ 12 _ 10 _ 18 ___ 040 ___ 20 _ 24 _ 10 ___ 054 __ 094 __12 _ 32 _ 18 __ 062 ___ 156

jaxjagman _______ TNV ____10 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 022 ___ 42 _ 36 _ 30 ___ 108 __ 130 __00 _ 06 _ 00 __ 006 ___ 136

CPcantmeasuresnow NYC ___ 02 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 002 ___ 38 _ 08 _ 40 ___ 086 __ 088 __00 _ 30 _ 12 __ 042 ___ 130

nrg Jeff _________ TNV ____ 30 _ 14 _ 16 ___ 060 ___ 00 _ 33 _ 27 ___ 060 __120 __ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___ 120

RodneyS _________ M A ____00 _ 02 _ 02 ___ 004 ___ 00 _ 00 _ 02 ___ 002 __ 006 __00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___ 006

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Rumble Final Scoring Feb 2018

Each regional subforum scores by highest totals for each of three regions.

 

REGION ________________ Eastern __ Central ___ Western _____ TOTAL

 

PHL ______________________ 140 _____ 130 _____ 196 ________ 466

___Normal ________________ 140 _____ 116 _____ 202 ________ 458

PA / NY ___________________ 144 _____ 206 _____ 099 ________ 449

Central + Western __________ 180 _____ 174 _____ 064 ________ 418

Southeast _________________ 070 _____ 057 _____ 274 ________ 401

NYC ______________________116 _____ 145 _____ 085 ________ 346

Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 040 _____ 092 _____ 124 ________ 256

Mid Atlantic ________________078 _____ 108 _____ 069 ________ 255

___ Consensus _____________066 _____ 089 _____ 066 ________ 221

New England ______________ 020 _____ 032 _____ 132 ________ 184

TN Valley _________________ 060 _____ 108 _____ 006 ________ 174

[Roger Smith]

---- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - Feb 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

Mercurial ___________146 _150 _133 ____ 429____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ____ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

 

___Normal _________ 136 _127 _145 ____ 408 ____ 162 _075 _015 ____ 252 ____ 660 ____ 000 100 .0.0 

 

so_whats_happening _099 _119 _090 ____ 308 ____ 100 _148 _100 ____ 348 ____ 656 ____ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

Scotty Lightning (SD) _139 _127 _142 ____ 408 ____ 142 _077 _027 ____ 246 ____ 654 ____ 000 100 .0.1

hudsonvalley21 _____ 102 _102 _082 ____ 286 ____ 078 _145 _104 ____ 327 ____ 613 ____

DonSutherland.1 ____ 100 _096 _074 ____ 270 ____ 026 _124 _099 ____ 249 ____ 519 ____

BKViking ___________099 _120 _103 ____ 322 ____ 051 _082 _056 ____ 189 ____ 511 ____

H2O ______________ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ____ 000 010 .0.0

Roger Smith _______ 126 _108 _068 ____ 302 ____ 076 _084 _038 ____ 198 ____ 500 ____ 111 000 .1.0

jaxjagman _________ 086 _066 _072 ____ 224 ____ 060 _122 _082 ____ 264 ____ 488 ____

mappy ____________ 066 _071 _067 ____ 204 ____ 068 _100 _108 ____ 276 ____ 480 ____

 

___Consensus ______083 _083 _072 ____ 238 ____ 058 _114 _067 ____ 239 ____ 477 ____

 

wxdude64 _________ 098 _104 _098 ____ 300 ____ 064 _078 _024 ____ 166 ____ 466 ____

wxallannj __________076 _078 _068 ____ 222 ____ 060 _108 _072 ____ 240 ____ 462 ____

RJay _____________ 062 _082 _075 ____ 219 ____ 052 _106 _077 ____ 235 ____ 454 ____

dmillz25 __________ 085 _067 _044 ____ 196 ____ 051 _108 _088 ____ 247 ____ 443 ____ 000 010 .0.0

Stebo ____________ 058 _056 _046 ____ 160 ____ 082 _102 _088 ____ 272 ____ 432 ____ 000 001 .0.0

nrgJeff ___________ 116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ____

H2O_Town_WX ____ 080 _078 _102 ____ 260 ____ 104 _002 _002 ____ 108 ____ 368 ____ 001 000 .0.0

buckeyefan (1 mo J)_050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ____ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ____

Tom _____________ 036 _058 _054 ____ 148 ____ 002 _086 _032 ____ 120 ____ 268 ____

RodneyS __________ 036 _034 _032 ____ 102 ____ 000 _082 _042 ____ 124 ____ 226 ____

Orangeburgwx _(1-F) 004 _021 _045 ____ 070 ____ 020 _010 _027 ____ 057 ____ 127 ____

CPcantmeasuresnow_002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ____

 

Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 080 _ 104 _ 114 _____ 298 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 970 (= 2)

Mercurial ______________ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (= 1) __ JAN

Orangeburgwx (1 mo Feb)_098 _ 092 _ 084 _____ 274 __________ 1 1 1 __ Feb _______ 401 (=21)

 

__Normal ______________080 _ 104 _ 094 _____ 268 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 928 (= 3) __ FEB

 

Roger Smith ____________074 _ 088 _ 076 _____ 238 __________ 0 0 0 __ Jan _______ 738 (= 6)

Tom __________________ 068 _ 096 _ 058 _____ 222 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 490 (=18)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 070 _ 060 _ 090 _____ 220 __________ 0 0 1 __ Jan _______ 739 (= 5)

so_whats_happening _____044 _ 101 _ 060 _____ 205 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 861 (= 3) __ FEB

hudsonvalley21 _________ 032 _ 078 _ 082 _____ 192 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 805 (= 4)

BKViking _______________018 _ 087 _ 082 _____ 187 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 698 (= 7)

H2OTown__WX _________ 014 _ 120 _ 052 _____ 186 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 554 (=16)

nrgJeff ________________ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=12t)

 

__ Consensus __________ 030 _ 084 _ 070 _____ 184 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 661 (=10)

 

jaxjagman _____________ 052 _ 060 _ 070 _____ 182 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 670 (= 9)

H2O __________________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (= 8)

wxdude64 _____________ 034 _ 046 _ 074 _____ 154 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 620 (=10)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=20)

Stebo _________________ 024 _ 094 _ 030 _____ 148 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 580 (=15)

wxallannj ______________ 000 _ 078 _ 062 _____ 140 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 602 (=11)

RJay __________________ 002 _ 064 _ 074 _____ 140 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 594 (=12t)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=19)

RodneyS________________000 _ 082 _ 036 _____ 118 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 344 (=22)

dmillz25 ________________000 _ 072 _ 034 _____ 106 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 549 (=17)

mappy _________________008 _ 072 _ 023 _____ 103 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 583 (=14)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=23)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Rumble (Total scores Jan-Feb)

 

Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS 

 

Central + Western __________ 454 _____ 326 _____ 284 ________1064

PHL ______________________ 408 _____ 246 _____ 322 ________ 976

NYC ______________________342 _____ 327 _____ 305 ________ 974

 

___Normal ________________ 408 _____ 252 _____ 268 ________ 928

 

PA / NY ___________________ 308 _____ 348 _____ 205 ________ 861

Southeast _________________ 234 _____ 203 _____ 396 ________ 833

Mid Atlantic ________________338 _____ 276 _____ 195 ________ 809

TN Valley _________________ 272 _____ 264 _____ 192 ________ 728

 

___ Consensus _____________238 _____ 239 _____ 184 ________ 661

 

Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 160 _____ 272 _____ 148 ________ 580

New England ______________ 260 _____ 108 _____ 186 ________ 554

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Extreme forecast report

February added eight more extreme forecasts to the six out of nine in January, so we are now sitting at 14/18 for the year. If we could only guess which extreme to choose, we would be looking great.

DCA, NYC and BOS were all far warmer than any forecasts, in the 6 to 7 range, but Roger Smith (yeah that guy) had the least atrocious guesses with +2.5 for DCA, +2.0 for NYC and +2.2 for BOS. Ergo, three wins recorded there. 

ORD managed to flip from deep cold to toasty warmth and ended up at +1.1 ... this gave the third highest forecast a win so ORD does not qualify. Roger Smith and Mercurial went too high, so_whats_happening was very close with high score despite a 4% penalty, and the rest were either a bit low or way too low. 

ATL and IAH were the same story as the eastern three, huge positive outcomes of +10.1 and +6.0, small positive forecast winner (in both cases so_whats_happening who also won ORD but that didn't qualify) with +2.3 and +1.8. Two wins for so_whats_happening.

All three western stations were colder than any forecasts but one. DEN was --2.6, PHX ended 0.0 despite being +6 at the mid-point, and SEA finished --2.3 ... Orangeburgwx decoded all of the above with forecasts of --2.7, +0.4, and --1.5, so three wins for Orangeburgwx and one (PHX) for Normal (who cannot be a solo winner). 

That leaves the annual standings as follows:

 

Extreme Forecasts wins and losses

 

Orangeburgwx ________ 3-0

Roger Smith __________ 3-0

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

__ Normal ____________ 2-1

DonSutherland1 ________1-0

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

Stebo ________________ 1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1

 

[Roger Smith]

Four seasons contest -- winter 2017-18 results

From December 2017 to November 2018 we have a small separate contest (like you don't have enough to read) involving the seasonal scoring totals.

There is no restriction on number of months entered and it sometimes happens that somebody enters two of three months and scores points in this, but in this case, 13 regulars entered the three months and produced all of the points scoring which go to the top ten as follows: first place gets 10 then second gets 7, on down to seventh place with 2, and 8th 9th and 10th share one point.

These are the points totals and Scotty Lightning who caught fire just after his name change (formerly SD) took top points in all three groups that we use, not going to switch this format like I did with the Regional Rumble, the points go for "original six" and western plus all nine. This is the last time I am going to mention that Scotty Lightning used to be SD.

This is the first of four instalments in the Four Seasons contest then ... ranking is by all nine totals, the order gets scrambled a bit for the others. I have included one two-month entrant (Mercurial) who defeated any regular three-month forecaster's total but none of those totals gained points. Orangeburgwx with one western forecast had 274 points, more than one of our three-month totals.

Perfect scores would be 1800, 900 and 2700. Normal and consensus are scored but their scores do not push down any lower points.

 

Winter 2017-18 (Dec 2017, Jan 2018, Feb 2018)

____________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals)

FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points ___  (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points

Scotty Lightning ______ 1090 ___ 10 _________ 468 ______ 10 _______ 1558 _____ 10

___Normal __________ 1066 ____ 7 _________ 418 _______ 6 ________1484 _____ 7

hudsonvalley21 ________999 ____ 7 __________368 ______ 3 ________ 1367 _____ 7

Don Sutherland.1 ______ 927 ___ 5 ___________426 ______ 7 ________ 1353 _____ 6

so_whats_happening ___ 996 ___ 6 ___________351 ______ 2 ________ 1347 _____ 5

___ Consensus ________ 859 ___ 2 __________ 368 ______ 3 ________ 1227 _____ 4

Roger Smith __________ 830 ___ 1 ___________378 ______ 5t________ 1208 _____ 4

BKViking _____________ 861 ___ 3 ___________325 ______ 1 ________ 1186 _____ 3

wxallannj ____________ 850 ___ 2 ___________ 322 ______ 1 ________ 1172 _____ 2

H2O_Town__WX ______ 776 ___ -- ___________378 ______ 5t________ 1154 _____ 1

wxdude64 ___________ 864 ___ 4 ____________284 ______ -- ________1148 _____ 1

RJay ________________798 ___ 1 ____________298 ______ -- ________1096 _____ 1

dmillz25 _____________819 ___ 1 ____________256 ______ -- ________1075 _____ --

Tom ________________636 ___ -- ___________ 398 ______ 6 ________ 1034 _____ --

Mercurial (2 mo) ______755 ___ -- ___________ 278 ______ -- ________ 1033 _____ --

RodneyS ____________ 606 ___ -- ___________ 344 ______ 1 _________ 950 _____ --