Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If nothing else...that's the first back to back epic op runs all winter. Why do you keep forgetting the magical dec 21 to 24 runs lol That was only 1 event. Gfs today missed going wall to wall by 5-8 degrees. Lol. We need multiple chances to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 22 minutes till bob tells us the ensembles dont support this I bet they will. It's been off and on around that time for a while. Cmc and gfs have the same idea now and the euro almost did earlier. It's not that far in the future either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 22 minutes till bob tells us the ensembles dont support this The GEFS the last few months have followed the Op at a ridiculous rate. I think it’s been mentioned here before but if they don’t it’s usually an auto toss of the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, Interstate said: Didn't the Blizzard of 96 have a decent storm right on it heels? Feb 2010 was closely spaced. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Feb 2010 was closely spaced. Lol The best 4 days of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Feb 2010 was closely spaced. Lol You cant count that... that period will be our all time unicorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 The UKMET at 72 looks pretty close to the GFS and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 GFS goes ahead and tacks on an ice storm at 300 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: You cant count that... that period will be our all time unicorn. Why not? Snowgoose said storms rarely happen close together. If 2 giants can happen a few days apart, getting a couple light or mod events should be no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 As Bob would say what a weenie run. 2 more storms in the ultra long range.i believe that's 5 or 6 chances over 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I know it doesn't matter at this point in time, but I like seeing the GFS be active in the lr with storm after storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Another pretty Epic run for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: GFS goes ahead and tacks on an ice storm at 300 hours lol. That has to be the most epic start to finish gfs run of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Holy shoot! What a ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I love the look of the precip pattern. Best look of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 40 minutes ago, Ji said: 22 minutes till bob tells us the ensembles dont support this I'm surprised but the 0z gefs isn't even close to the op. A lot of light rain events and some weak snow events. Maybe it's a good thing because when they agree it usually doesn't happen Eta: I'm talking about sun/mon specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 No one gonna talk about the Euro? Give me this and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 5 hours ago, Ji said: its a completely different event than was modeled a few days ago....The Icon has that look but the GFS still has no wave of low pressure 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: You made the comment when the gfs had a complete non event and now it's nearly a half inch of qpf. 4 hours ago, Ji said: it took our initial storm...made it a non event and then created a new event Your both right. Problem is without a better defined wave of low pressure it's hard to get enough cross boundary flow to get the precip into the cold side of the front. So the precip is mostly ahead of the cold. A better wave will tighten up the baroclinic boundary and get more precip on the cold side. Of course it's circular thinking because a tighter boundary will also have a better low because it has more potential energy and baroclinicity. But if we did get a more amplified solution it would also likely shift the boundary north and that's no good also so imo were pretty much stuck in a no win Friday needing an ultimate thread the needle. I've moved 90% of my attention to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm surprised but the 0z gefs isn't even close to the op. A lot of light rain events and some weak snow events. Maybe it's a good thing because when they agree it usually doesn't happen Eta: I'm talking about sun/mon specifically. It was a pretty weenie run though overall. A couple light events then a signal for something more significant late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Why not? Snowgoose said storms rarely happen close together. If 2 giants can happen a few days apart, getting a couple light or mod events should be no problem. That comment made me go to be fair he implied back to back significant events. But I didn't see those threats as big amped up storms that squash the flow behind. Their a series of waves. That said we have had storms following Deep systems. 2010 being the best example. We had a string of events in 2013-14 both in December and feb. 2003 there was some snow behind pd2. 2000 we had 3 events in a week. 1996 (it was rain where he lives) but we definitely went back to back. 1987. Could go on but this is silly. Getting one significant event is rare so of course two is infrequent but based on how rare getting any big snow is getting two occurs probably more frequently then you would think. maybe it's different up there but he made the comment in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Gfs still has it but flatter. Idea still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I dont know much.. but it looks like the GFS is advertising a fairly standard/ non complicated way of getting some snow in our area next week.. I prefer this look over some other fantasy storms we have seen this year. I guess 3-6 inches from a overrunning event in early February is much more plausible than some of the other ways we have gotten our digital snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I really like the look of the GEFS. Below normal 850s and 2m temps through most of the run and a mean precip of close to 2 inches. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nice improvement on the 6z gefs for Sun/Mon threat . Nice mean increase in snowfall and bump in qpf. I count 2 decent hits for Fri morning for central Md. But as many have stated temps will be our bigger issue possibly . Some pluses and minuses with Monday. Subtropical jet is bumping up to our south but we also have a fairly progressive flow. A somewhat decent setup for a possible phase as well but lets see what the energy running through looks like around Friday because that will probably be all over the board the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 7 hours ago, Interstate said: Didn't the Blizzard of 96 have a decent storm right on it heels? yes it did, remember it well here in central PA. had the blizzard and a few days later got 17" from the followup storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I dont know much.. but it looks like the GFS is advertising a fairly standard/ non complicated way of getting some snow in our area next week.. I prefer this look over some other fantasy storms we have seen this year. I guess 3-6 inches from a overrunning event in early February is much more plausible than some of the other ways we have gotten our digital snow this year. Agreed, and with that sort of 'basic' setup there is actually more upside vs downside than what is currently advertised, though I would keep expectations low regardless. We know how things have worked out (or not) the past 2 years as lead times have lessened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I think the chances of a large event on Friday are pretty much gone, but I still think there's a bit of hope, particularly for the N/W crowd, to have a small (1-3"?) event. Last several GFS runs have trended to have a more defined wave and have tilted the frontal zone more W-E oriented vs. N-S. Look at the gif below. As we know by now, our issue is surface and boundary layer temps. 850 temps are fine, but the boundary layer is torching when the precipitation falls. A more defined low pressure that forms to our southwest and tracks to our south should help pull in colder air and drop our temps while also helping bump up precipitation a bit. ICON sort of does this, but tracks the low overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 9 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Why not? Snowgoose said storms rarely happen close together. If 2 giants can happen a few days apart, getting a couple light or mod events should be no problem. Well there's a lot you don't know about him. Suffice it to say, it ain't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 NAM says nada for Friday which is fine if it helps for Monday-Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 20 minutes ago, Interstate said: NAM says nada for Friday which is fine if it helps for Monday-Tuesday It helps for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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