Scraff Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 49 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z gfs:( From a storm on 0z to literally sunny skies 6z. Like literally poof a storm disappeared into the abyss. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: From a storm on 0z to literally sunny skies 6z. Like literally poof a storm disappeared into the abyss. Weird. GFS "off" run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GFS "off" run Stayed up all night just to see the 6z...regretting that decision. Better hit the sack now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: 6z gfs:( This northern stream stuff sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 6z GEFS has a pretty sweet h5 look in the LR. Getting there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 8 hours ago, gymengineer said: Sarcasm, right? 3/25/13 was the best real spring (after solstice) snowstorm in my lifetime. It stuck on roads even down in lower elevations of DC predawn and was a nice 3-5” in Montgomery County. I had 6” from that storm I think and it was all melted by lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 EPS looks horrible through 15 days. Hopefully its the Euro bias of putting too much trough in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I had 6” from that storm I think and it was all melted by lunch. That was 14 inches I think at timberline, stayed the night at the Canaan hotel and had first chair at t line that day..... about as good as it gets for this side of the Mississippi. That was on top of already a 20"+ snowpack they had there too. Absolutely unreal day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: 6z GEFS has a pretty sweet h5 look in the LR. Getting there.. When I actually got time to look at the spaghetti plots it appeared to me that out towards day 15 what was going on was a cluster that didn't have much blocking and thus a monster eastern ridge was both muting the high lat blocking on the mean and over doing the ridge look over us. If those outliers continue to drop away each day we will see the ridging up top trend stronger and the cold response under improve. That's a big if though. A compromise could happen too. But there is a camp in there that shows what we want. If that happens we would start to see some response on the snow mean soon also as things really are just starting to get favorable at the end. As what is now day 15-20 starts to come into range if the better look is winning I would expect some jump to start there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Cool animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 It's at long range, but that's four consecutive Euro runs that have given mby snow around the 17th. The GEFS still has a signal for a storm around then, and the signal on the GEPS is growing. Still more misses than hits, but not bad for something 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I do think there is a lag for the models to understand the possible implications, but I will state that of course if the Pac messes things up we may not get to experience the full/best potential of the SSW in terms of sensible weather here. I see the AO forecast has a ensemble target of minus 2 standard deviations negative, but you can see from there some take it back up, others still downward. I like seeing the PNA forecasted to go positive. I still feel these forecasts are going to play catch up to the strat event. Could be wrong of course, but interesting see hoe things unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 from what i have read 3 different models forecast 3 different positions of the MJO, how is that affecting the models forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.