CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: At least we can see a light at the end. In 2 weeks if the two weeks after that look ugly we can just call it a crappy winter and be done. I think at that point I’ll be at the acceptance stage Its a volatile period for sure. I have some hope for around the 18th, as the ops have been teasing and the ens have had a pretty decent look at h5 for awhile. Beyond that, if we are to get a legit favorable pattern change, and I am not convinced we will, it may end up that we will only have a couple weeks of good climo left. Being objective, one would have to conclude the odds are stacked against, but late Feb into early March can surprise, and we really only need one or 2 good events to prevent a second consecutive dud for the majority of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 35 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Continuing to see progress with the developing -NAO in the LR. Looks as if heights are building more into Baffin. Given what is going on in the strat, there is going to be a lot of volatility, and the guidance will probably lag behind, so not too worried about the continued h5 +heights showing in the means over the east through day 15(more so on the EPS). Looking at the temp anomalies on the EPS members there is quite a spread at day 15, with 20 or so indicating cold/very cold, or cold on the doorstep, with the rest looking pretty toasty, implying the Atl ridge is holding strong. This is an improvement over the previous run though. However this ends up, it will be interesting to track. Other than possibly timing something next weekend and getting maybe a mixed event, it is going to be a frustratingly long process to see how things shake out. If we do end up with a more favorable look, it likely will be 2 weeks+ out. I thought the eps made more than a tiny step towards more confluence and less atl ridging. That's what I'm focusing on. Not seeing any signs of the east flipping to a trough anywhere. That leaves the best case scenario through d15 having elongated hp passing to our north. Even though the eps seems to want to insist that we ridge out in spite of a neg nao, I'm not sold that outcome is the most likely. We'll know one way or another within the next week to 10 days. Overall I dont see anything exciting. I think we all agree there. But I also don't see early spring or an easy shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought the eps made more than a tiny step towards more confluence and less atl ridging. That's what I'm focusing on. Not seeing any signs of the east flipping to a trough anywhere. That leaves the best case scenario through d15 having elongated hp passing to our north. Even though the eps seems to want to insist that we ridge out in spite of a neg nao, I'm not sold that outcome is the most likely. We'll know one way or another within the next week to 10 days. Overall I dont see anything exciting. I think we all agree there. But I also don't see early spring or an easy shutout. We agree here as well. That is why I mentioned the 2m temp anom spread among the members. Chaos is likely until the strat warming event/where the PV ends up is resolved. I am focusing on the NA, and it continues to improve each run. 12z EPS is better than 0z. Seeing the core of the +heights building further SW into Baffin is a good thing, and lower heights in the 50-50 region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 CPC just released their 3/4 week outlook. Odds slightly favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Interesting read. After some hemming and hawing, they hug the Euro and discount the SE troughs shown in the week 2 GEFS and the week 3 JMA/CFS Also, Of final note is the anticipated sudden stratospheric warming event prior to the outlook period. However, efforts at CPC to quantify influence of the stratospheric warmings on outlooks for Week-2 and Weeks 3-4 show little in the way of consistent impacts of these events over the U.S. and negligible correlations with lagged responses in North American temperature and precipitation between 10 and 20 days after the event. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: CPC just released their 3/4 week outlook. Odds slightly favor above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Interesting read. After some hemming and hawing, they hug the Euro and discount the SE troughs shown in the week 2 GEFS and the week 3 JMA/CFS Also, Of final note is the anticipated sudden stratospheric warming event prior to the outlook period. However, efforts at CPC to quantify influence of the stratospheric warmings on outlooks for Week-2 and Weeks 3-4 show little in the way of consistent impacts of these events over the U.S. and negligible correlations with lagged responses in North American temperature and precipitation between 10 and 20 days after the event. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ I feel so sorry for the met who has to produce those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought the eps made more than a tiny step towards more confluence and less atl ridging. That's what I'm focusing on. Not seeing any signs of the east flipping to a trough anywhere. That leaves the best case scenario through d15 having elongated hp passing to our north. Even though the eps seems to want to insist that we ridge out in spite of a neg nao, I'm not sold that outcome is the most likely. We'll know one way or another within the next week to 10 days. Overall I dont see anything exciting. I think we all agree there. But I also don't see early spring or an easy shutout. And the EPS has overdone the SE ridge in the longs range all winter. It’s been awful in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 For a minute there I thought a low-pressure was going to develop with that high pressure to the north of us around Valentine's Day and ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I really like what the GFS had done the past couple of runs. Nice confluence over us and a baha low getting ready to eject. Even if it doesn't show snow for us on this run It still looks ripe to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: I really like what the GFS had done the past couple of runs. Nice confluence over us and a baha low getting ready to eject. Even if it doesn't show snow for us on this run It still looks ripe to me. 18-22 certainly does look like our next "real" window to watch. Cranky talked about it for the East coast as being the last chance for a real nor'easter for the US. Let's hope it breaks in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We agree here as well. That is why I mentioned the 2m temp anom spread among the members. Chaos is likely until the strat warming event/where the PV ends up is resolved. I am focusing on the NA, and it continues to improve each run. 12z EPS is better than 0z. Seeing the core of the +heights building further SW into Baffin is a good thing, and lower heights in the 50-50 region. 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And the EPS has overdone the SE ridge in the longs range all winter. It’s been awful in that regard. Part of my skepticism in the euro is exactly that. The EPS has loved showing the trough west/ridge east d10+ but when the GEFS/GEPS disagrees it usually caves. I expect this to be no different. Even in just 2 runs the EPS has backed down a considerable amount with the amplitude of the mean ridge in the east. That already means the last weeklies run is pretty much irrelevant. I don't have a crystal ball and I certainly won't claim I know how the upper level pattern is going to evolve over the next 2 weeks. I'm just not going to be quick to jump on the warmth/bad pattern train. Long range guidance is probably at its lowest point of winter irt accuracy. Ens means and weekly guidance has done very well this winter though. Right now is a different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: 18-22 certainly does look like our next "real" window to watch. Cranky talked about it for the East coast as being the last chance for a real nor'easter for the US. Let's hope it breaks in our favor It has been a window of interest for a awhile. I highly doubt its the last though. Not sure what cranky dude's track record is, but from the posts I have read here quoting his twitter he seems a bit too sure of what will transpire. Red flag. My BS detector is going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Happy hour on a Friday. lol. GFS is too far north for this lead though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Nice southern vort system on the GFS. To bad it's probably down hill from here..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Lol of course GFS shows best case scenario this far out. Warning event for most of this subforum. And now we play the waiting game... That is waiting 210 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I think we would take that and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Happy hour on a Friday. lol. GFS is too far north for this lead though. lol yeah. If my yard is getting heavy snow at this lead its a bad sign. We need snow Ric to Sby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Happy hour on a Friday. lol. GFS is too far north for this lead though. We need it snowing in the Bahamas this far out...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Happy hour on a Friday. lol. GFS is too far north for this lead though. This storm is going to end up in my fake snowstorm thread isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 no one look at the gfs please, our hearts cant take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 All jokes aside, there is some legit potential with this setup. The key differences I pointed out earlier are valid. About half the EPS members dropped some snow during the d8-10 period. Most were light but there were a couple solid hits and close misses in the mix as well. Watch and wait is something we do well here anyways. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Happy hour on a Friday. lol. GFS is too far north for this lead though. This storm is going to end up in my fake snowstorm thread isnt it? If it can hold inside of 5 days maybe. Right now it's absolutely not a legitimate or discreet event. We're going to get multiple iterations over the coming days and plenty of them will not include snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 A d7 fantasy 50/50 is what allows our d9 fantasy storm to take a good track. lol. I always like panels like this even if way out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 This is it guys. GFS won’t change for another 240 hours because I said so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 38 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol yeah. If my yard is getting heavy snow at this lead its a bad sign. We need snow Ric to Sby. No we dont. That would verify with the way the past 2 years have gone :). It is just nice to see a threat on the GFS at this point. It would be frustrating to waste the rest of February. But I really dont see that happening. We have an active pattern in our prime snow climo period. We have to luck into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 GEFS has some support for a decent snow storm d8-10. Also supports all rain, rain to snow, snow to rain, freezing rain, sleet, and no precip at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Not bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS has some support for a decent snow storm d8-10. Also supports all rain, rain to snow, snow to rain, freezing rain, sleet, and no precip at all. lol, in other words they're forecasting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Happy hour on a Friday. lol. GFS is too far north for this lead though. This storm is going to end up in my fake snowstorm thread isnt it? Glad i won’t be vested in this one. Seriously, I hope y’all get it. I honestly don’t even care at this point. I’ll follow from the beach in Cartagena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Happy hour on a Friday. lol. GFS is too far north for this lead though. and we know at 0z it will be running the apps. Then the GFS will not budge for that solution. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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