frd Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GFS has the same idea next weekend. Just 12 to 24 hours later. Interesting. by hour 180 to 186 much colder over the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I remember that one! We couldn't believe that we got a big snow after such warm weather. Then we were having snowball fights a couple days later with short sleeves on. 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: ...In March weird things can happen...there is increased baroclinicity and shorter wavelengths and sometimes a less then ideal setup can luck out. Also the high temperatures the week leading into that [1976] snowstorm at BWI were 83, 64, 60, and 51...and 42 the DAY OF THE SNOWSTORM!!!! It was 70 a few days later also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Yep... a near miss. It's cold enough next weekend. Not bone chilling but if we get a low to ride underneath us it would be workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 The euro is the euro at day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The euro is the euro at day 7. uh wat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The euro is the euro at day 7. honestly not sure what that is supposed to be showing... due to timing issues right now things will be washed out on a mean plot at that range anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: honestly not sure what that is supposed to be showing... due to timing issues right now things will be washed out on a mean plot at that range anyways. That's what I say about d7 euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 The Euro actually had something similar to the GFS. The 16-20th has looked interesting at h5 for a while. Not a great set up but workable with good timing. Still just something to casually watch for now, but we are seeing the idea of a wave tracking underneath showing up on multiple op runs so maybe this becomes a threat for a light to moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 12z GEFS gained a little more steam for some sort of winter wx event d8-10. Large timing differences and even multiple shortwaves in individual member solutions but the overall spread is noteworthy and will keep us interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Ha...time to post an Almanac watch...Farmer's has a moderate event for the 16-19th...and now, are the models catching a whiff of something? Lol (mods, may I start an Almanac thread just for fun? I mean, would be interesting to see how it links up with what actually happens!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 The one key difference to the d8-10 period showing up right now is HP placement and confluence. We really haven't seen many looks this year inside of 10 days with elongated hp north of us and confluence to force a more W-E trajectory of both precip and low centers. Even a NW pass can offer some promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The one key difference to the d8-10 period showing up right now is HP placement and confluence. We really haven't seen many looks this year inside of 10 days with elongated hp north of us and confluence to force a more W-E trajectory of both precip and low centers. Even a NW pass can offer some promise. darts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 So March is magic now and not early to mid Feb? have not used this term in a long time but it's useful now-the Pied Pipers of winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 No one claimed any magic was happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Tenman Johnson said: So March is magic now and not early to mid Feb? have not used this term in a long time but it's useful now-the Pied Pipers of winter weather well considering we are right about mid-Feb and aren't tracking anything I guess it will have to be. no reason late Feb can't do something. would be happy with one warning criteria event...heck one advisory level...scratch that steady light snow for couple of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: So March is magic now and not early to mid Feb? have not used this term in a long time but it's useful now-the Pied Pipers of winter weather we have already had 2 winter storms this month and below average temps. Not sure what else we can do for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: So March is magic now and not early to mid Feb? have not used this term in a long time but it's useful now-the Pied Pipers of winter weather Yes, we know. Persistence. Your crystal ball. Pattern sucks now, so it will suck in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: we have already had 2 winter storms this month and below average temps. Not sure what else we can do for you Next weekend is actually starting to trend towards a legit shot of winter wx so let's not forget that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yes, we know. Persistence. Your crystal ball. Pattern sucks now, so it will suck in March. i remember clearly when Howard called for Rain on Presidents day 2003...ignorning the the 1050 HP that was modeled to be in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i remember clearly when Howard called for Rain on Presidents day 2003...ignorning the the 1050 HP that was modeled to be in place I remember when he blamed the NWS temperature sensor, a platinum RTD, for reading too high instead of accepting that DCA is an UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 the euro sucks..now its too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, Ji said: the euro sucks..now its too far north It's not even that. The cold push in the mid levels leading in is weak. Still the same idea of confluence/cad/precip though. I'd much prefer the euro to be showing what it is this run instead of no precip at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's not even that. The cold push in the mid levels leading in is weak. Still the same idea of confluence/cad/precip though. I'd much prefer the euro to be showing what it is this run instead of no precip at all. it showed way better than past 2 runs. the 00z run was ideal and had alot more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 It's still like >5 days away so this is all just potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 33 minutes ago, Ji said: it showed way better than past 2 runs. the 00z run was ideal and had alot more precip We're talking 8 days away here. Any run with cold and precip within 200 miles is a win. My guess is a mixed event if we get an event. At least it's not 10+ days away. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 one thing is certain...the drought is coming to an end. 1-2" of rain expected this weekend, with more events next week. really gonna need the 2nd half of feb to deliver because march is not our typical busy snowy month...though if the pattern is ripe, then maybe march can be our feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: the euro sucks..now its too far north Good luck, I'll be out of town. I can't believe way back in September when I planned this short trip that I was afraid I'd miss a snowstorm. I'm likely safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: the euro sucks..now its too far north Who cares what any op says at day 8. They haven't nailed anything at that range. And the euros been the worst. More interested getting a general setup that's close inside 5 days then can worry about op run trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Continuing to see progress with the developing -NAO in the LR. Looks as if heights are building more into Baffin. Given what is going on in the strat, there is going to be a lot of volatility, and the guidance will probably lag behind, so not too worried about the continued h5 +heights showing in the means over the east through day 15(more so on the EPS). Looking at the temp anomalies on the EPS members there is quite a spread at day 15, with 20 or so indicating cold/very cold, or cold on the doorstep, with the rest looking pretty toasty, implying the Atl ridge is holding strong. This is an improvement over the previous run though. However this ends up, it will be interesting to track. Other than possibly timing something next weekend and getting maybe a mixed event, it is going to be a frustratingly long process to see how things shake out. If we do end up with a more favorable look, it likely will be 2 weeks+ out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Continuing to see progress in the right direction with the developing -NAO in the LR. Looks as if heights are building more into Baffin. Given what is going on in the strat, there is going to be a lot of volatility, and the guidance will probably lag behind, so not too worried about the continued h5 +heights showing over the east through day 15(more so on the EPS). Looking at the temp anomalies on the EPS members there is quite a spread at day 15, with 20 or so indicating cold/very cold/cold on the doorstep, with the rest looking pretty toasty, implying the Atl ridge is holding strong. This is an improvement over the previous run though. However this ends up, it will be interesting to track. Other than possibly timing something next weekend and getting maybe a mixed event, it is going to be a frustratingly long process to see how things shake out. If we do end up with a more favorable look, it likely will be 2 weeks+ out. At least we can see a light at the end. In 2 weeks if the two weeks after that look ugly we can just call it a crappy winter and be done. I think at that point I’ll be at the acceptance stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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