Wxdood Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I don't know any better, but to see discussion of the Karents barrets sea or whatever and then get dumped on a few days/week after... then I'd start believing that stuff. Honk enough times and it's bound to happen eventually but sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Weeklies go pretty nuts week 3 with a nicely placed NAO block. Cant seem to get a trough reflection in the east though...so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The biggest issue we face is getting precip but not having the temps be cold enough for snow. Another issue is having the cold but not getting the precip. We really need both in order to get snow or some kind of wintry event. It’s a complicated formula but that’s what is required. It's not that complicated honestly. We're in typical progressive flow with nothing to hold cold air in place. Get a nao block or a 50/50 and even a marginal airmass has a better chance at producing winter wx here. The d8-10 window looks a lot better for cold not running away like a like a prison break. Beyond that could potentially be better but nothing worth discussing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Weeklies go pretty nuts week 3 with a nicely placed NAO block. Cant seem to get a trough reflection in the east though...so there's that Yea, it's a mix of good and bad. Weeklies seem to favor a -pna to fight the -nao for the east as a whole. Still better than progressive flow with warm rain follow by cold blue skies. It would be ironic if we get a great atlantic but the pac steals our hopes and dreams. We can fire up the pac vs atl argument again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's a mix of good and bad. Weeklies seem to favor a -pna to fight the -nao for the east as a whole. Still better than progressive flow with warm rain follow by cold blue skies. It would be ironic if we get a great atlantic but the pac steals our hopes and dreams. We can fire up the pac vs atl argument again. Lol...very true. Whats a week in winter without the Atl/Pac argument? I do agree..Ive seen enough cold and dry and then praying that we are right side of a boundary. I'm happy to take a shot at some legit blocking at the end of the season. There is no place to go but up from what we have experienced so far. If we fail, bring on fishing season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 No matter how things shake out with the SSW event that is about to get underway I think the pattern will become much more active storm wise which has actually already begun to take place. Will we see more snow along the I-95 corridor? That is the big question, but I think we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 32 minutes ago, Ji said: we are running like 6 degrees below normal so far in Feb Maybe so... but upstairs is not cooperating even when the surface is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Lol...very true. Whats a week in winter without the Atl/Pac argument? I do agree..Ive seen enough cold and dry and then praying that we are right side of a boundary. I'm happy to take a shot at some legit blocking at the end of the season. There is no place to go but up from what we have experienced so far. If we fail, bring on fishing season! If I had to choose between a -pna/-nao and vice versa I would take the -nao. They both favor mixed events in general but a -nao can keep us colder for longer before a flip. We're entering a period of high uncertainly either way. Regular 15 day ens are changing every day. I don't think we're going to be bored once we get through the next week or so. Right now plain sucks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's a mix of good and bad. Weeklies seem to favor a -pna to fight the -nao for the east as a whole. Still better than progressive flow with warm rain follow by cold blue skies. It would be ironic if we get a great atlantic but the pac steals our hopes and dreams. We can fire up the pac vs atl argument again. Everything is related and a matter of degrees. They each effect one another. If the blocking is centered north or not a full on aped out block then we need some pna help. If the block is further south and stronger we might actually want a -pna to force something up into a blocked in high. But another factor is source regions. If most of North America is scoured of cold that matters too. Think last year in late January into early February when we did get a period with a nice h5 look but there was no cold so we had some rain storms with perfect tracks. We saw that early in the blocking period in 2016 also. But that was January so cold slowly built until there was just enough...and it was only just enough. Remember that was a rainstorm on some guidance at day 10 even with a perfect track. The good news is we're close. Slightly better blocking, get that ridge centered a bit more south and the Pacific won't matter as much. Get the Pacific less hostile and the nao as shown is fine. But we need a slight adjustment in our favor from one or the other. The amount of ridging in the east despite the blocking looks weird even given the pna though. It might be overdone a bit and that could put us in the game. Still in wait and see mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If I had to choose between a -pna/-nao and vice versa I would take the -nao. They both favor mixed events in general but a -nao can keep us colder for longer before a flip. We're entering a period of high uncertainly either way. Regular 15 day ens are changing every day. I don't think we're going to be bored once we get through the next week or so. Right now plain sucks. Lol The snow data also seems to indicate in a Nina the nao might matter more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, that's the thing. Nobody is making bold calls saying we're flipping to freezer with snow pouring out the front door. It's just different. And very interesting because this is one of the few times I can recall where the balance of winter had no blocking when the strat has goes through a major event AND heights in the troposphere respond. Its very discussion worthy even if nothing comes out of it. Let's make a simple assumption that blocking is going to set up. There are plenty of past cases where blocking establishes and runs a cycle of at least 30-45 days. March can work here right through mid month. Late March gets really tough in our yards but the first 2 weeks can work even during notsogreat patterns. I have a hunch that we are going to enter a legitimate blocking cycle. Still doesn't mean plentiful or easy snow but if there is a time of year where blocking can change significantly change the landscape for winter wx, early and late in the season are the times you need it most. If we fail we fail. But hell yea I'm going to discuss what I see. The upcoming period is interesting and discussion worthy. Absolutely. Yeah we may fail- it's probably the most likely outcome actually. Just saying we need better than what is currently being advertised to end up with a legit change in the pattern. So far I am not seeing the progression in the NA that makes me think that will happen while our climo is still decent. Advertised GL ridging is too far north. Hopefully the ensembles are missing something. Lots going on with the strat currently, and maybe we end up with a piece of the trop PV on our side when all is said and done, preferably stuck underneath a nasty west-based block- yeah I will totally risk suppression at this point. Hopefully it's not mid March when/if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The snow data also seems to indicate in a Nina the nao might matter more. My expectations are good. If I get one 4" snowfall then I crack double digits. Don't care if it melts 10 minutes after it stops. Would just like to see one more snowfall that covers the grass. Don't care how it happens and don't care how long it lasts. I highly doubt that we don't have any more snowfall this year. That would surprise me more than getting a big hit to be honest. Maybe we pull off something next weekend. I'l hug the 12z euro and control run for now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 And here is another opinion, Steve D. from this morning. Many different opinions out there as we head into the second half of the month and into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 7 hours ago, Ji said: Snow falling is the only thing i care about in this hobby *snow falling is the only thing I care about.....anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: And here is another opinion, Steve D. from this morning. Many different opinions out there as we head into the second half of the month and into March. That’s a fairly common result to be honest. There have been numerous incidents of long duration NAOs where it was either mild or no major snow occurred. Usually it’s when the Pacific pattern is poor. December 96 and December 01 are good examples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That’s a fairly common result to be honest. There have been numerous incidents of long duration NAOs where it was either mild or no major snow occurred. Usually it’s when the Pacific pattern is poor. December 96 and December 01 are good examples Obviously the verdict is still out on what will occur. The discussion on the SSW event about to take place and the differences in opinion have been very interesting. I am very curious to see how this shakes out in terms of our sensible weather. IMO, we are not done with snow yet. Just another one to add to the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Obviously the verdict is still out on what will occur. The discussion on the SSW event about to take place and the differences in opinion have been very interesting. I am very curious to see how this shakes out in terms of our sensible weather. IMO, we are not done with snow yet. Just another one to add to the list. I agree...This is a pretty significant event going on in the strat. I dont have the chops to analyze how it will affect the end of the season....There are def differing opinions out there. The weeklies are the weeklies but they are not terrible in the week 3-4 range. It's encouraging to see a block press into the Baffin Bay/Island area and the heights in the east aren't all that high. I think CAPE was mentioning the importance of this.... Even if temps dont avg well below normal...early March blocked storms have a way producing their own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 well if NY NJ PA weather is correct the above normal rain would certaiinly help put a dent in the drought we are expeiencing along with spring like temperatures. Will miss the snow, but hopefully next winter we do much better. Good day to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 This is happening at the same time of record strong Mid-Atlantic ocean ridge. And in the Pacific Stratosphere the negative heights outweigh the arctic + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 19 top analogs to Feb 10-28 period being a 10mb warming. better analogs repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Euro has a nice snowfall south of dc next Friday. Low pressure running west to East. It will probably be gone by 12z but still nice to see. Nice slug of moisture to our south and we are on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 We arent in or don't look to be in a great pattern for snow anytime soon. There are some chances that march could turn into a good look depending on how strong the blocking holds, where it centers itself, and how things evolve around that. Way too early to tell. But even if we end up with a less then ideal setup the people who are just throwing out the rest of winter and assuming nothing will happen are being premature. I am using this example because it was a totally crap nina winter with almost no snow around here into March...and then we got a 6-10" snowstorm across the region March 9th. Without a great pattern...blocking did finally set up but not ideal. This was the H5 5 days before...this looks like a hot mess This was the H5 the day before, blocking was developing over the top but its centered what would normally be well north of where we ideally want it. yet this lead to a 6" snowstorm at IAD, 8" at BWI, and 12" up here. In March weird things can happen...there is increased baroclinicity and shorter wavelengths and sometimes a less then ideal setup can luck out. Also the high temperatures the week leading into that snowstorm at BWI were 83, 64, 60, and 51...and 42 the DAY OF THE SNOWSTORM!!!! It was 70 a few days later also. So looking at some plot of temperatures for the week wouldn't even hint at the 6-10" our area had. But it was the only good snowfall of an otherwise awful winter. This is not in any way a prediction. There are other examples of this kind of thing though. I just picked that because it might be the absolute best example of a season like the one we are in now that just lucked its way into avoiding a total failure in March. 1999 and 2009 did similar. The h5 for both of those didn't look like some perfect ideal setup either. Both were pretty good but nothing amazing. If anyone is holding out for some epic run of cold and snow after snow that is highly unlikely. But throwing in the towel on any snow right now is equally silly. Of course everyone is totally entitled to track how they want but I will be tracking until the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We arent in or don't look to be in a great pattern for snow anytime soon. There are some chances that march could turn into a good look depending on how strong the blocking holds, where it centers itself, and how things evolve around that. Way too early to tell. But even if we end up with a less then ideal setup the people who are just throwing out the rest of winter and assuming nothing will happen are being premature. I am using this example because it was a totally crap nina winter with almost no snow around here into March...and then we got a 6-10" snowstorm across the region March 9th. Without a great pattern...blocking did finally set up but not ideal. This was the H5 5 days before...this looks like a hot mess This was the H5 the day before, blocking was developing over the top but its centered what would normally be well north of where we ideally want it. yet this lead to a 6" snowstorm at IAD, 8" at BWI, and 12" up here. In March weird things can happen...there is increased baroclinicity and shorter wavelengths and sometimes a less then ideal setup can luck out. Also the high temperatures the week leading into that snowstorm at BWI were 83, 64, 60, and 51...and 42 the DAY OF THE SNOWSTORM!!!! It was 70 a few days later also. So looking at some plot of temperatures for the week wouldn't even hint at the 6-10" our area had. But it was the only good snowfall of an otherwise awful winter. This is not in any way a prediction. There are other examples of this kind of thing though. I just picked that because it might be the absolute best example of a season like the one we are in now that just lucked its way into avoiding a total failure in March. 1999 and 2009 did similar. The h5 for both of those didn't look like some perfect ideal setup either. Both were pretty good but nothing amazing. If anyone is holding out for some epic run of cold and snow after snow that is highly unlikely. But throwing in the towel on any snow right now is equally silly. Of course everyone is totally entitled to track how they want but I will be tracking until the bitter end. I was in grade school but I remember that storm living up in Carroll County. It was an awful winter and when Bob Turk started talking about a chance for snow it didn't seem possible. I seem to recall the forecast was initially 1-2" or something like that, and it ended up a classic March heavy paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We arent in or don't look to be in a great pattern for snow anytime soon. There are some chances that march could turn into a good look depending on how strong the blocking holds, where it centers itself, and how things evolve around that. Way too early to tell. But even if we end up with a less then ideal setup the people who are just throwing out the rest of winter and assuming nothing will happen are being premature. I am using this example because it was a totally crap nina winter with almost no snow around here into March...and then we got a 6-10" snowstorm across the region March 9th. Without a great pattern...blocking did finally set up but not ideal. This was the H5 5 days before...this looks like a hot mess This was the H5 the day before, blocking was developing over the top but its centered what would normally be well north of where we ideally want it. yet this lead to a 6" snowstorm at IAD, 8" at BWI, and 12" up here. In March weird things can happen...there is increased baroclinicity and shorter wavelengths and sometimes a less then ideal setup can luck out. Also the high temperatures the week leading into that snowstorm at BWI were 83, 64, 60, and 51...and 42 the DAY OF THE SNOWSTORM!!!! It was 70 a few days later also. So looking at some plot of temperatures for the week wouldn't even hint at the 6-10" our area had. But it was the only good snowfall of an otherwise awful winter. This is not in any way a prediction. There are other examples of this kind of thing though. I just picked that because it might be the absolute best example of a season like the one we are in now that just lucked its way into avoiding a total failure in March. 1999 and 2009 did similar. The h5 for both of those didn't look like some perfect ideal setup either. Both were pretty good but nothing amazing. If anyone is holding out for some epic run of cold and snow after snow that is highly unlikely. But throwing in the towel on any snow right now is equally silly. Of course everyone is totally entitled to track how they want but I will be tracking until the bitter end. Think it pretty much comes down to what the pv does after the split. Though they have been more aggressive in bringing that south initially the models then pull that west/northwest. If that happens I think that basically runs the clock out on this winter barring some great blocking setting up and producing a somewhat fluke storm. The one positive on that has been the models have been delaying that move over the last few days and are not as aggressive with the NW extent of the movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Euro has a nice snowfall south of dc next Friday. Low pressure running west to East. It will probably be gone by 12z but still nice to see. Nice slug of moisture to our south and we are on the northern edge. Who the hell knows. The 00Z suite was again all over. The GFS for the first time in ages started muting the SE ridge and the Euro brought it back stronger than any run on the last 5 days. My guess is that system ends up more north based on seasonal trends but the volatility may be increasing here the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 GFS has the same idea next weekend. Just 12 to 24 hours later. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: GFS has the same idea next weekend. Just 12 to 24 hours later. Interesting. Yep... a near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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