February Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It doesn't surprise me that we're seeing a shift in the med-long range right now. The strat split is legit. No denying that. How that impacts the trop or our yards is hard to say. Seeing ops shift like this and having it coincide with the split isn't a bad thing. I know we're all skeptical but if something breaks right in the next 2 weeks then there's more to it than chaos and luck. 

i know its ridiculous to talk details 10 day out but if we can keep this look...maybe the high wont move out so fast lol

 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i know its ridiculous to talk details 10 day out but if we can keep this look...maybe the high wont move out so fast lol

 

Guidance kinda agrees across the board with the general d8-10 progression. I would say that the chances of a more favorable mixed event are there this time compared to the last couple but the risk of all rain is very real. 

There's also a chance for a decent snow event. The euro run has a pretty vigorous northern stream low running across Canada just south of HB that helps pull midlevel flow out of the south. The setup reminds me of other ones with a typical thump/dryslot/drizzle. CAD sig is there but loses the battle because of the vigorous low. Take that away and it's just normal shortwave in the MW approaching a CAD setup. Similar to what the GFS has but further south. It's a long shot but trends could actually work in our favor with this particular setup. 

[87storms]

50 minutes ago, Ji said:

I like March snow btw...i like seeing snow fall. I could care less about it after the storm is over. Snow falling is the only thing i care about in this hobby

i like it for a couple days after, but at some point i want my basketball courts clean.

[Vice-Regent]

44 minutes ago, Ji said:

well dang

 

and yet.... nothing at our lat. It's time to move if you like snow.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

and yet.... nothing at our lat. It's time to move if you like snow.

Did you even look at the 222 image above? 

Or even read what Bob said?

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, yoda said:

Did you even look at the 222 image above? 

 

I mean you can move some of the pieces around and get a snow to rain event with CAD. Worth watching I suppose but I am out of the game for sure.

[Bob Chill]

Modest support at best for an event d8-10 but more than any previous run so there's that. Control is a warning level event through the region with DC being the jackpot. lol. I've seen worse looks this year

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Modest support at best for an event d8-10 but more than any previous run so there's that. Control is a warning level event through the region with DC being the jackpot. lol. I've seen worse looks this year

The question is can we hold that look for a while?  My guess is not very long but not sure why I think that

[WEATHER53]

I think the error began when it became mild in January and statements abounded that favorable patterns were coming in early to mid Feb. We have in fact experienced a shift from dried up stringy messes trying to find us in very cold air masses to more consolidated precip masses moving into departing cold air.

This is what a Nina does, what it does not do is switch to a snow making patters.  Persistence is strong in certain enso seasons and looking for the continuation of it in a La Niña will result in far more accurate mid-longer range forecasts than looking for and predicting a change to more favorable cold and snow .

[frd]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The question is can we hold that look for a while?  My guess is not very long but not sure why I think that

First, I am not even sure the Euro has a clue yet given the SSWE is just starting. No one realy knows how it will play out here yet. 

I believe there is a secondary heat pulse as well,  after the main one, so the end game and the magnitide of the warming event is still to be determined. 

I believe though the effects of the SSWE last 4 to 6 weeks, so if we were lucky enough to be in an area where cold is favored, it would play out for most of March. 

I am hearing that the timing of the SSWE may not be ideal because you have a Pac upward pattern interferring, basically countering the effects of the SSWE. Then again there are those who seem positive on it,  as it relates to the East Coast and colder weather.    

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said:

and yet.... nothing at our lat. It's time to move if you like snow.

Every time I think you can't get any worse you prove me wrong. 

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Every time I think you can't get any worse you prove me wrong. 

I don't think there's a better civilized place to live if you like snow than around here since 2009. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I think the error began when it became mild in January and statements abounded that favorable patterns were coming in early to mid Feb. We have in fact experienced a shift from dried up stringy messes trying to find us in very cold air masses to more consolidated precip masses moving into departing cold air.

This is what a Nina does, what it does not do is switch to a snow making patters.  Persistence is strong in certain enso seasons and looking for the continuation of it in a La Niña will result in far more accurate mid-longer range forecasts than looking for and predicting a change to more favorable cold and snow .

March 1976, 1984, 1999, and 2009 would like a word with you. 

Persistence forecasting is lazy. Yea just going with climo will make you right more often then not but it also will guarantee you will be wrong every time an anomaly happens. And it's boring. 

[psuhoffman]

A lot of times we talk about strat stuff it's speculation and never materialized. Other times it does not there isn't a 1-1 correlation with a trop response. 

This time the SSW is real. And the trop response is showing. That still doesn't guarantee snow but it's 2 significant hurdles cleared. 

I'm cautiously optimistic we will have more threats to track before we close the book on this winter. 

[Rtd208]

 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A lot of times we talk about strat stuff it's speculation and never materialized. Other times it does not there isn't a 1-1 correlation with a trop response. 

This time the SSW is real. And the trop response is showing. That still doesn't guarantee snow but it's 2 significant hurdles cleared. 

I'm cautiously optimistic we will have more threats to track before we close the book on this winter. 

First one in 3 years, or more I think ?

[frd]

The models will have a hard time in forecasting the AO and the NAO and of course the genral weather as well, beyond ten days. 

Good thread here 

Amy's comments specifically are very interesting on this thread and others as well regarding the SSWE   

 

  

[WEATHER53]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 1976, 1984, 1999, and 2009 would like a word with you. 

Persistence forecasting is lazy. Yea just going with climo will make you right more often then not but it also will guarantee you will be wrong every time an anomaly happens. And it's boring. 

I'll take  accuracy  over excitement. In fact creation of excitement was often called hype.  Persistence of pattern in certain enso seasons will be a far more useful tool in medium and longer range forecasting than the never ending "more favorable pattern  in 10 days.......1o days.... 10 days "

Banking on the anomalies is no way to fly and citing March for 4 of the last 42 years refutes absolutely nothing as it relates to Jan and Feb 

[Yeoman]

11 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I'll take  accuracy  over excitement. In fact creation of excitement was often called hype.  Persistence of pattern in certain enso seasons will be a far more useful tool in medium and longer range forecasting than the never ending "more favorable pattern  in 10 days.......1o days.... 10 days "

Amen

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I'll take  accuracy  over excitement. In fact creation of excitement was often called hype.  Persistence of pattern in certain enso seasons will be a far more useful tool in medium and longer range forecasting than the never ending "more favorable pattern  in 10 days.......1o days.... 10 days "

Banking on the anomalies is no way to fly and citing March for 4 of the last 42 years refutes absolutely nothing as it relates to Jan and Feb 

They were 4 Nina years that sucked before then. A much smaller sample size then 42. I didn't pull those years out of my arse I was using your criteria. 

Persistence forecasting is BS.  Patterns do persist a while...but then they end. A couple weeks ago I had to listen to this same crap from drought guy. Now it's wet but not white and you are pulling the same crap. Problem is this pattern will also break and it won't warn you when it is about too. And when it does you will be wrong if all you do is rely on persistence. Snow is rare around here so being down on snow will make you right a lot but anyone can do that any you will be wrong every time a fluke happens. 

Btw still waiting for that low a couple years ago to track northeast out of West Virginia through North Carolina. My map must be lacking. 

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

I'll take  accuracy  over excitement. In fact creation of excitement was often called hype.   

 

22 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Amen

No long range forecast is going to be completely accurate. And no one here was forecasting snow. We were discussing possibilities and threats. We're not a forecast outlet. If I was issuing an actual forecast it would be way more conservative then the purely speculative discussion we have here. 

But this is a discussion not a forecast. Just posting a forecast would be boring. And posting a persistence climo based one would be way boring. No one wants that here. Your confusing our analysis and discussion of the pattern and guidance and a forecast. 

And lastly I don't hype in that I believe what I say. I'm not selling anything. But I love snow so I like to discuss the prospects and even if it's a long shot I want to talk about it. 

Take right now. I'm hopeful the current happenings with both the tropical forcing between the mjo and soi plus the strat will lead to a more favorable h5 pattern in a week plus. And I'm hopeful that could lead to a snowstorm. And there are years we have had snow late in an overall bad year so that isn't crazy. But I'm not forecasting that. We're just speculating and being hopeful. Saying there is a chance isn't the same as saying it will happen. 

Some keep acting like we shouldn't even discuss the possibilities unless it's likely. But nothing is likely 10 days away so that would make this a pretty boring thread. That was my point. 

[Rtd208]

And just to throw this into the mix, from yesterday.

 

[CAPE]

Ensembles have been advertising +height anomalies building into GL from Barents/Kara region for a while now. What we need to see going forward is those heights build southward quite a bit. If all we end up with is some h5 reds over N GL, it wont change our luck down here. Unless we see some significant +height anomalies build into Baffin Bay/Davis Strait, I doubt we see much shift in the mean storm track.

[Ji]

18z gfs suppressed. I'll take it

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z gfs suppressed. I'll take it

Yea, I thought that was a pretty good run all things considered. We need a RIC hit @ d3 to stand a chance this year. Starting is NC is a good spot for d8+ leads. 

[terpsnation]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

No long range forecast is going to be completely accurate. And no one here was forecasting snow. We were discussing possibilities and threats. We're not a forecast outlet. If I was issuing an actual forecast it would be way more conservative then the purely speculative discussion we have here. 

But this is a discussion not a forecast. Just posting a forecast would be boring. And posting a persistence climo based one would be way boring. No one wants that here. Your confusing our analysis and discussion of the pattern and guidance and a forecast. 

And lastly I don't hype in that I believe what I say. I'm not selling anything. But I love snow so I like to discuss the prospects and even if it's a long shot I want to talk about it. 

Take right now. I'm hopeful the current happenings with both the tropical forcing between the mjo and soi plus the strat will lead to a more favorable h5 pattern in a week plus. And I'm hopeful that could lead to a snowstorm. And there are years we have had snow late in an overall bad year so that isn't crazy. But I'm not forecasting that. We're just speculating and being hopeful. Saying there is a chance isn't the same as saying it will happen. 

Some keep acting like we shouldn't even discuss the possibilities unless it's likely. But nothing is likely 10 days away so that would make this a pretty boring thread. That was my point. 

Just want to quickly throw in my two cents - I really appreciate it when two knowledgeable people on this board disagree. I have lurked here for 7+ years now and I feel like these kind of discussions are where I tend to learn the best about weather in our region/in general.

Even if you both disagree, just know there are a bunch of lurkers like me that are learning and gaining knowledge from it all.

/banter

[Bob Chill]

28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ensembles have been advertising +height anomalies building into GL from Barents/Kara region for a while now. What we need to see going forward is those heights build southward quite a bit. If all we end up with is some h5 reds over N GL, it wont change our luck down here. Unless we see some significant +height anomalies build into Baffin Bay/Davis Strait, I doubt we see much shift in the mean storm track.

Yea, that's the thing. Nobody is making bold calls saying we're flipping to freezer with snow pouring out the front door. It's just different. And very interesting because this is one of the few times I can recall where the balance of winter had no blocking when the strat has goes through a major event AND heights in the troposphere respond. Its very discussion worthy even if nothing comes out of it.  

Let's make a simple assumption that blocking is going to set up. There are plenty of past cases where blocking establishes and runs a cycle of at least 30-45 days. March can work here right through mid month. Late March gets really tough in our yards but the first 2 weeks can work even during notsogreat patterns. I have a hunch that we are going to enter a legitimate blocking cycle. Still doesn't mean plentiful or easy snow but if there is a time of year where blocking can change significantly change the landscape for winter wx, early and late in the season are the times you need it most. If we fail we fail. But hell yea I'm going to discuss what I see. 

[WEATHER53]

Our pattern right now is actually worse than the late Dec early Jan frigid blast

right now we've got well organized lows moving into departing cold air masses along a westward track.

cold is always the number one issue here. Although this winter weather was dry until very recently we tend to be able to get ample precip in here during winter but very often need cold help 

[Ji]

18 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Our pattern right now is actually worse than the late Dec early Jan frigid blast

right now we've got well organized lows moving into departing cold air masses along a westward track.

cold is always the number one issue here. Although this winter weather was dry until very recently we tend to be able to get ample precip in here during winter but very often need cold help 

we are running like 6 degrees below normal so far in Feb

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

we are running like 6 degrees below normal so far in Feb

The biggest issue we face is getting precip but not having the temps be cold enough for snow.  Another issue is having the cold but not getting the precip.  We really need both in order to get snow or some kind of wintry event.  It’s a complicated formula but that’s what is required.