MountainGeek Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, cae said: I recently found out that once a week the GEPS runs out to 32 days. The ensemble mean qpf as snow imby is less than 0.4" over that time. But I'm hugging the 21-day GEPS control run, because there's nothing else to hug. Most of that falls on Feb. 28th. Only 20 days away! Maybe that's been the problem all along.....we should be tracking the 20-day real storms and not wasting time on the 15-day fantasy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 37 minutes ago, cae said: I recently found out that once a week the GEPS runs out to 32 days. The ensemble mean qpf as snow imby is less than 0.4" over that time. But I'm hugging the 21-day GEPS control run, because there's nothing else to hug. Most of that falls on Feb. 28th. Only 20 days away! That is only 20+ inches... Child's play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Starting to see more and more hints of a *real* -NAO setting up down the line. 12z gfs is no exception. Can't take anything seriously yet of course but you can't discount the process going on in the strat because now it's happening in the short range. Unfortunately it still looks boring as hell for the next 10+ days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to see more and more hints of a *real* -NAO setting up down the line. 12z gfs is no exception. Can't take anything seriously yet of course but you can't discount the process going on in the strat because now it's happening in the short range. Unfortunately it still looks boring as hell for the next 10+ days.... We still have plenty of time to score. It’s only the 4th quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, Scraff said: We still have plenty of time to score. It’s only the 4th quarter. We're going to run short on time by the time things get right even if they do at all. This winter has had its claws in us all year but just get cross the dang goal line. lol. GEFS looks good too. The thing that sucks is the blocking showing up isn't moving back in time but it's so far out in time that we can't do anything except sit on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Interstate said: That is only 20+ inches... Child's play ?? Um, 50 mm = 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Starting to see more and more hints of a *real* -NAO setting up down the line. 12z gfs is no exception. Can't take anything seriously yet of course but you can't discount the process going on in the strat because now it's happening in the short range. Unfortunately it still looks boring as hell for the next 10+ days....I've seen the look before of -nao and se ridge and weenies3 says it's meteorologically impossible for the storm to cut...until it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: ?? Um, 50 mm = 2 inches. in rain.... remember then its 10:1 usual ratio... so it is 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to see more and more hints of a *real* -NAO setting up down the line. 12z gfs is no exception. Can't take anything seriously yet of course but you can't discount the process going on in the strat because now it's happening in the short range. Unfortunately it still looks boring as hell for the next 10+ days.... I've seen the look before of -nao and se ridge and weenies3 says it's meteorologically impossible for the storm to cut...until it does GEFS is actually still moving more favorable for the d8-10 range. Maybe we pull off a miracle within a reasonable amount of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 ...it still looks boring as hell for the next 10+ days.... It does? I guess it depends on what you define as 'boring'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 33 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: ?? Um, 50 mm = 2 inches. I am guessing the 50mm is the liquid amount. Since it is the highest value on the key... I would not think the key would only go up to 2 inches of snow, but two inches plus of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It does? I guess it depends on what you define as 'boring'. Boring in the sense the only thing noteworthy is major longshot at long leads. Upper level pattern is still progressive. I'd put the odds at a clean snowstorm *here* well under 10%. We're still 10-15 days away from any legitimate upper level pattern taking shape. I'd say that's pretty damn boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Boring in the sense the only thing noteworthy is major longshot at long leads. Upper level pattern is still progressive. I'd put the odds at a clean snowstorm *here* well under 10%. We're still 10-15 days away from any legitimate upper level pattern taking shape. I'd say that's pretty damn boring. that would be fine if it was Jan 17th.....the timing for this is horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I like March snow btw...i like seeing snow fall. I could care less about it after the storm is over. Snow falling is the only thing i care about in this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, Ji said: that would be fine if it was Jan 17th.....the timing for this is horrendous Might be a total blip or the GEFS is starting to see things differently. Probably one of the better ens runs in at least 3-4 days. D8-11 is full of rain/mixed/and even a clean snow storm or 2. Much better spread than previous runs. We're at least 3 wizards games away from taking anything seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Boring in the sense the only thing noteworthy is major longshot at long leads. Upper level pattern is still progressive. I'd put the odds at a clean snowstorm *here* well under 10%. We're still 10-15 days away from any legitimate upper level pattern taking shape. I'd say that's pretty damn boring. Dont disagree about the boring aspect at all but the gefs at least made that time period a bit more interesting. A few solid hits in there and a wall of HP to our N is a welcomed sight. I have zero expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: I like March snow btw...i like seeing snow fall. I could care less about it after the storm is over. Snow falling is the only thing i care about in this hobby I like it falling and being deep for 1 day but then I'm with you. Let it burn (melt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Might be a total blip or the GEFS is starting to see things differently. Probably one of the better ens runs in at least 3-4 days. D8-11 is full of rain/mixed/and even a clean snow storm or 2. Much better spread than previous runs. We're at least 3 wizards games away from taking anything seriously though. if we fired ernie grunfeld...i would take a shutout for the rest of the season lol. The amazing snowstorm of February 2015 was in late February...so nice things can happen in the last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 35 minutes ago, yoda said: in rain.... remember then its 10:1 usual ratio... so it is 20 inches 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: I am guessing the 50mm is the liquid amount. Since it is the highest value on the key... I would not think the key would only go up to 2 inches of snow, but two inches plus of liquid. That's right. It's liquid equivalent. I updated the chart title to make it more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, Ji said: if we fired ernie grunfeld...i would take a shutout for the rest of the season lol. The amazing snowstorm of February 2015 was in late February...so nice things can happen in the last week Euro d8-10 looks a lot different now too. Blocking showing up INSIDE of 10 days. Maybe this strat thing pays off for the first time in my tracking history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro d8-10 looks a lot different now too. Blocking showing up INSIDE of 10 days. Maybe this strat thing pays off for the first time in my tracking history. lol...i saw some of the analogs associated with the SSW and they were really poor. I think one was January 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 well dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, Ji said: lol...i saw some of the analogs associated with the SSW and they were really poor. I think one was January 13 Yea, strat hype is low on my list of things to rely on. The chatter almost exclusively coincides with a disaster on the ground. lol Pretty nice euro run though. Now we have the GFS/GEFS/Euro showing an acceptable upper level setup d8-10+. Sure would be nice to have another fail to track in a reasonable op range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, strat hype is low on my list of things to rely on. The chatter almost exclusively coincides with a disaster on the ground. lol Pretty nice euro run though. Now we have the GFS/GEFS/Euro showing an acceptable upper level setup d8-10+. Sure would be nice to have another fail to track in a reasonable op range. well the euro 10 day map i posted has a -EPO and -NAO....if we fail with that, it may not be our winter. Feb 22 HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Heh, euro manages to take advantage of a retreating HP and drop the biggest storm of the year on us before flipping. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, euro manages to take advantage of a retreating HP and drop the biggest storm of the year on us before flipping. lol yep. Looks like PD weekend is one to watch. I wish every winter would just guarantee us a storm on PD weekend. It would make winters alot easier to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro d8-10 looks a lot different now too. Blocking showing up INSIDE of 10 days. Maybe this strat thing pays off for the first time in my tracking history. Ha! That's almost like a page of the Weenie Handbook actually coming true...i.e., when everything else is failing, the strat will save us! But in all seriousness, given the alternative and how things are right now, one has to like the overall look being shown for later this month. As you say, though, big time boredom waiting for it in the meantime (assuming "it" happens! Where's that Ron Paul gif??). At this point, I don't care if it's late in the season or March, I just would like for us all to score a solid, moderate event that's above warning criteria. Even if it doesn't stick around for long, a couple of fine winter days with good snow to end the season would cut a lot of edginess in here. Something like March 2015 wouldn't be bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 someone save this screen shot before 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: well dang What's this? Ji, are you going semi-positive on us here??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: yep. Looks like PD weekend is one to watch. I wish every winter would just guarantee us a storm on PD weekend. It would make winters alot easier to take. It doesn't surprise me that we're seeing a shift in the med-long range right now. The strat split is legit. No denying that. How that impacts the trop or our yards is hard to say. Seeing ops shift like this and having it coincide with the split isn't a bad thing. I know we're all skeptical but if something breaks right in the next 2 weeks then there's more to it than chaos and luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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