Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Literally nothing showing up in the period the weeklies had deemed glorious lol...except for torchy rain..we are somehow in a shutout period I spoke too soon....discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 ETA: Beat out again by Bob! Transient 50/50 works its magic around the 16th....12z had the same feature but had the high in NE instead of SE Can. Hr. 210...book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Literally nothing showing up in the period the weeklies had deemed glorious lol...except for torchy rain..we are somehow in a shutout period Nah, there was never a glorious look. It was a high risk/high return look with shades of Feb 14&15. We've been quickly reminded how lucky we were in 14&15 and why a -EPO/+NAO pattern usually sucks. We're getting a warmer version of 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Earthlight and crew, more on the SSW event. https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/07/high-latitude-blocking-key-late-february-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Nah, there was never a glorious look. It was a high risk/high return look with shades of Feb 14&15. We've been quickly reminded how lucky we were in 14&15 and why a -EPO/+NAO pattern usually sucks. We're getting a warmer version of 94. Didn't the weeklies advertise a good cold pattern from Feb 7 to March 14 or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I spoke too soon....discuss. Well, on the bright side, it is sub-240-hr and fully compliant with the "Weekend Snowstorm" rule. So there has to be a least a chance. Lest we forget, last year we couldn't even get anything inside the 10-day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On 2/6/2018 at 4:36 PM, Ji said: On 2/6/2018 at 4:35 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Cranky dude seems a tad emotional, basically canceling winter. HM is right, nothing is happening in our neck of the woods for a while. Will have to see how the strat stuff shakes out, but still a shot we get a good period towards the end of Feb. Feb 22 to Feb 31 will money I'm really excited about snow on Feb 30 - 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, there was never a glorious look. It was a high risk/high return look with shades of Feb 14&15. We've been quickly reminded how lucky we were in 14&15 and why a -EPO/+NAO pattern usually sucks. We're getting a warmer version of 94. Didn't the weeklies advertise a good cold pattern from Feb 7 to March 14 or something? The chatter was mostly about the -epo returning. Mean temps werent particularly cold. There were hints of a -nao coming into play late month as well. From a long lead standpoint those weekly runs are mostly correct. It did look like we would be on the winning side of the gradient but that part isn't working out. Lol. We're missing solid snow by less than 150 miles. It's one of those times where long lead guidance did pretty decent with the hemispheric pattern but we're still getting shafted with snow storms. I figured we would at least get some mixed events that included some accum snow. Just not our year man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 lmao @ last gfs run at 220. probably gonna be accurate, same as the last two storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 On a positive note...Gefs does have some support for winter wx d8-11. Some mixed events and even a couple clean snowstorms. Something to watch at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: lmao @ last gfs run at 220. probably gonna be accurate, same as the last two storms. I wouldn't doubt it...smh (although one Almanac does say "storm sweeps in from Midwest" during that time period...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 The Pacific has been perfect.. we have a +400 Alaska ridge in the middle of Winter and it's 50 degrees and rain. open your eyes, this doesn't happen in any other winter. -AO/-EPO combo this Winter is lowest since 78-79 when February is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 What's interesting about Stratospheric warming is models have it as strongest ever on graphs and such, but in anomaly the negative side in Pacific 10mb is actually a greater! and overall N Hemisphere weighed averages to negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1030mb High in Canada on Feb 11 and it's 50 degrees at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 11 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The chatter was mostly about the -epo returning. Mean temps werent particularly cold. There were hints of a -nao coming into play late month as well. From a long lead standpoint those weekly runs are mostly correct. It did look like we would be on the winning side of the gradient but that part isn't working out. Lol. We're missing solid snow by less than 150 miles. It's one of those times where long lead guidance did pretty decent with the hemispheric pattern but we're still getting shafted with snow storms. I figured we would at least get some mixed events that included some accum snow. Just not our year man. On the surface it seems a bit uncanny(all the close misses) but the end result is typical Nina. Really underscores the importance of persistent, legit HL blocking in a Nina winter to counter the tendency for SE ridge and NW storm tracks, and increase odds for decent snow chances in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Deep weather thought of the day: How can a sudden stratospheric warming be "sudden" when it's been discussed for over a week? :thinking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 Next Thursday looks interesting on 6z. 1040s hp to our north. Decent slug of moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 We are like way below average temp wise in Feb so far....2 big storms and no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: We are like way below average temp wise in Feb so far....2 big storms and no snow 2F colder than normal 8 days in isn't way below imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 55 minutes ago, Jandurin said: 2F colder than normal 8 days in isn't way below imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 IDK man I'm going by Matt Rogers' numbers on cwg, not a picture. He updates it daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, Jandurin said: IDK man I'm going by Matt Rogers' numbers on cwg, not a picture. He updates it daily. i think you two are discussing two different things Matt Rogers does avg high temperature which in all fairness is slightly skewed and doesn't represent the actual cold pattern we have been in. Ji is sharing the MEAN avg which takes the temperature through out 24 hour period and gives you a more realistic model of what we actually experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 not really seeing anything exciting in the long range for our backyards through 16 days. at best, it shows the temp anomolies at Normal. Not a blowtorch but its not cold. We are going to need a lot of luck to score this month. A February shutout is still the most likely option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 At this point I will just be happy for seasonal cold for the next two weeks so we don't end up with a repeat of the March flowering trees slaughter of last year where it was so warm in February that they all came out early and then arctic in March which killed the blossoms. That sucked hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 45 minutes ago, Ji said: not really seeing anything exciting in the long range for our backyards through 16 days. at best, it shows the temp anomolies at Normal. Not a blowtorch but its not cold. We are going to need a lot of luck to score this month. A February shutout is still the most likely option So what you’re trying to say is that the first 3”+ storm will be coming in March? Can’t wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Ji said: We are like way below average temp wise in Feb so far....2 big storms and no snow Yeah that really hurts! (Dulles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 I recently found out that once a week the GEPS runs out to 32 days. The ensemble mean qpf as snow imby is less than 0.4" over that time. But I'm hugging the 21-day GEPS control run, because there's nothing else to hug. Most of that falls on Feb. 28th. Only 20 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2018 Share Posted February 8, 2018 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: At this point I will just be happy for seasonal cold for the next two weeks so we don't end up with a repeat of the March flowering trees slaughter of last year where it was so warm in February that they all came out early and then arctic in March which killed the blossoms. That sucked hard. I agree. Been two years in a row like that for my magnolia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.