Chris78 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: If winter is over this will be the worst 2 year stretch at KOKV in it's history. So that gives you an idea of how bad the past 2 years have been as far as snowfall goes. I went and looked at the data and I couldnt find back to back years with under 10 inches. Wea re on pace to have back to back years with under 5 inches. KOKV has had bad years before. But never a 2 year stretch like this. I moved to Smithsburg 18 years ago and this is the worst 2 years of snowfall I've had since being here. Even in awful years we still manage double digit snow totals up here. Been a rough stretch. That being said out our way we have another 5 to 6 weeks for snow and I find it hard to believe we don't see more snow at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: this is turning into a colder version of last winter, but similar anemic snow totals. bad winters happen here, but it's a little concerning to get them back to back twice in a decade. you can view this link and see that winters are generally worse now minus the biggies: http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf that is until we get a snowstorm later this month and then i might delete this post. that's a cool reference sheet...55-71 was a nice even keeled time in snowfall climo. I would sell my soul for 30 inches every year that I can count on vice these massive storms that occur once in a great while...and I would like that 20 in 3 inch increments every week for 10 weeks and have it not melt...where is the Devil when you need him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: If winter is over this will be the worst 2 year stretch at KOKV in it's history. So that gives you an idea of how bad the past 2 years have been as far as snowfall goes. I went and looked at the data and I couldnt find back to back years with under 10 inches. Wea re on pace to have back to back years with under 5 inches. KOKV has had bad years before. But never a 2 year stretch like this. Per my records, Martinsburg had 1930-31 (5.7") and 1931-32 (1.4") that were worse back-to-back than the past two years have been here. Not sure of the period of record for the OKV sites. Regardless, its still a top 5 worst season for snowfall so far this year and its starting to piss me off, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Per my records, Martinsburg had 1930-31 (5.7") and 1931-32 (1.4") that were worse back-to-back than the past two years have been here. Not sure of the period of record for the OKV sites. Regardless, its still a top 5 worst season for snowfall so far this year and its starting to piss me off, lol I could only find records for OKV back to 1965. But I am sure we did just as poorly down here in those same years. So figure this two year stretch is the worst in 86 years. That is horrifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 There is significant trend now for the Feb 10-13 period to be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 30 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Per my records, Martinsburg had 1930-31 (5.7") and 1931-32 (1.4") that were worse back-to-back than the past two years have been here. Not sure of the period of record for the OKV sites. Regardless, its still a top 5 worst season for snowfall so far this year and its starting to piss me off, lol I'll admit that this season is exceptionally annoying because we spent most of winter in a non-shutout pattern. Some years it's just a roast fest coast to coast. I'm good with that. When there's no chance it doesn't bug me. This year has presented multiple chances for flawed small or mod events but nothing can break our way. Yea, we've gotten back to back minor ice events but snowfall is been scare to put it lightly. Doesn't look like the next 10 days will offer any opportunity to track snow so here we are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 19 hours ago, Ji said: 19 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Cranky dude seems a tad emotional, basically canceling winter. HM is right, nothing is happening in our neck of the woods for a while. Will have to see how the strat stuff shakes out, but still a shot we get a good period towards the end of Feb. Feb 22 to Feb 31 will money Yeah.. I am still very optimistic. It's really uncommon to not see at least one 3-6 inch event in peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Significant ice or even snow potential Feb 11-14. worst case scenario there isn't much precip, it's not a pattern for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 30 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I could only find records for OKV back to 1965. But I am sure we did just as poorly down here in those same years. So figure this two year stretch is the worst in 86 years. That is horrifying Down here in the central valley I told my fans in late November that I expected 10 - 20 inches this winter compared to a normal 24. So far, I have recorded 4.5 compared to a total of 4.5 for last winter. Of course, my cutoff around April 10 is a long ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 woah is us. .the sky is falling and its not FROZEN! sorry for the banter. im just carrying on with the current theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Significant ice or even snow potential Feb 11-14. worst case scenario there isn't much precip, it's not a pattern for rain Any chance you'd like to share what guidance you're using or elaborate on details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 On a positive note, i don't hear anyone complaining about the drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, birdsofprey02 said: Any chance you'd like to share what guidance you're using or elaborate on details? GEFS has had a pretty good h5 look for the period just beyond that. Maybe 16-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Can we please stop using the GEFS? Is it ever right? It always overestimates snow and also counts mixed precip as snow. It's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 20 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Cranky dude seems a tad emotional, basically canceling winter. His twitter name is an emotion pretty sure even if it's not a shtick, it's a shtick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 32 minutes ago, birdsofprey02 said: Any chance you'd like to share what guidance you're using or elaborate on details? Bizarre Canadian Polar Vortex retrogrades to Greenland on models by default, because it's an anomalous pattern and this is a probability pick. Greenland and surrounding heights will be higher than 468-486dm at this time There is currently major warmth happening over Alaska that become blocky in NW Canada in a few days, this ive noticed over many years is a bust-low at the surface pattern here in the mid atlantic The whole pattern is trending colder right now with a Stratosphere warming at the doorstep. Whatever that is, it's throwing things into some kind of forecasting chaos. (I made a note Dec 8-27 that we are something like 2-3x more likely to have a wintery pattern with +10mb heights at the pole vs -10mb, loose reference but historical analogs show the same correlation) There are many things. 12z GFS is generally light rain, disorganized, high heights up to Canada pattern. This is like Feb 1994. Nothing is happening between now and then that is any kind of warm pattern or spring ridge as these things have a signature in developing. Pacific is S->N, and PV north of us cannot go any lower on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 GEFS has had a pretty good h5 look for the period just beyond that. Maybe 16-20th.Yep....all winter long the good h5 look has been days 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'll admit that this season is exceptionally annoying because we spent most of winter in a non-shutout pattern. Some years it's just a roast fest coast to coast. I'm good with that. When there's no chance it doesn't bug me. This year has presented multiple chances for flawed small or mod events but nothing can break our way. Yea, we've gotten back to back minor ice events but snowfall is been scare to put it lightly. Doesn't look like the next 10 days will offer any opportunity to track snow so here we are... Exactly. There really has been no torch to speak of, its either been historically cold or seasonable for the most part. Stuff has come close. Its just been very bad luck this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GEFS has had a pretty good h5 look for the period just beyond that. Maybe 16-20th. The PV is largely still too far north though and the western ridge somewhat shallow. It’s possible due to the SSW, the models may not grasp that a major change in PV location or Greenland blocking will occur til very close to the time it begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 36 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Can we please stop using the GEFS? Is it ever right? It always overestimates snow and also counts mixed precip as snow. It's awful. Why don't we just quit using all the models? After all most of the other models have performed worse then the GEFS on many/most occasions. And if your only criteria for trashing the GEFS is because of it's crappy snow algorithm then I really don't know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The PV is largely still too far north though and the western ridge somewhat shallow. It’s possible due to the SSW, the models may not grasp that a major change in PV location or Greenland blocking will occur til very close to the time it begins Seeing an improvement in the longer range with higher heights extending over top the pole and a corresponding drop south with the pv. Half expecting to see this look improve over subsequent runs. Or maybe the better term is hoping and wishing that it improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The Winter of arctic blocking 90% of the time with little to no wintery precip can't wait to see what the unfavorable Winter's are like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The PV is largely still too far north though and the western ridge somewhat shallow. It’s possible due to the SSW, the models may not grasp that a major change in PV location or Greenland blocking will occur til very close to the time it begins That's pretty much where my head is at. The strat split won't be an instant massive pattern influencer but it will certainly affect the hemispheric upper level pattern in some way and not just for a couple days. It will set the tone for what's left of winter. We're still 5 days out from the major strat disruption and probably 10+ days away from beginning to understand how it will impact weather patterns through late Feb and early March. It could do absolutely nothing favorable for the eastern US. Or it could send us into a prolonged more favorable height pattern that lasts well into March. No model or brain can definitively say what's going to happen over the next 4-6 weeks. We're just going to have to watch and wait. Unfortunately the waiting part won't include much chance of winter wx in this area so time is going pass sloooooowly. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Ice potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's pretty much where my head is at. The strat split won't be an instant massive pattern influencer but it will certainly affect the hemispheric upper level pattern in some way and not just for a couple days. It will set the tone for what's left of winter. We're still 5 days out from the major strat disruption and probably 10+ days away from beginning to understand how it will impact weather patterns through late Feb and early March. It could do absolutely nothing favorable for the eastern US. Or it could send us into a prolonged more favorable height pattern that lasts well into March. No model or brain can definitively say what's going to happen over the next 4-6 weeks. We're just going to have to watch and wait. Unfortunately the waiting part won't include much chance of winter wx in this area so time is going pass sloooooowly. lol What's a greenland block...lol it's been so long I've forgotten what that looks like! Maybe if you bring back the old avatar it would bring us luck in the AO and NAO regions. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1041mb High dropping down in North Dakota 42hrs on GFS, precip here by 78hr. 850s and 925mb warm, maybe it will trend colder? Feb 9-13 1994 had a high pressure due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1041mb High dropping down in North Dakota 42hrs on GFS, precip here by 78hr. 850s and 925mb warm, maybe it will trend colder? Feb 9-13 1994 had a high pressure due north. How does a 1041 in nd help us in dc when precip is already here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 It's 1030mb in Iowa, 1026mb in NY state precip type shows rain all the way up near Canadian border but it's a really good setup to have in the Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 30 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: How does a 1041 in nd help us in dc when precip is already here You know we're in a bad spot when we haven't even had a fantasy storm to discuss in at least 4 days. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Literally nothing showing up in the period the weeklies had deemed glorious lol...except for torchy rain..we are somehow in a shutout period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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