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February Mid/Long Range Discussion


George BM

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39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, my optimism is based ONLY on getting a better CHANCE for something. lol. I strongly believe that our best upper level pattern is yet to come. Now whether or not that = snow...heh...beats me. 

there's no way the eastern shore outperforms us in snow this year...unless they do.

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Cranky dude seems a tad emotional, basically canceling winter.
HM is right, nothing is happening in our neck of the woods for a while. Will have to see how the strat stuff shakes out, but still a shot we get a good period towards the end of Feb.
Feb 22 to Feb 31 will money
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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Cranky dude seems a tad emotional, basically canceling winter.

HM is right, nothing is happening in our neck of the woods for a while. Will have to see how the strat stuff shakes out, but still a shot we get a good period towards the end of Feb.

There has been alot of talk about the SSW and also alot of conflicting opinions on what effects (if any) it may have on our sensible weather. While I have my concerns that winter may come to an end earlier then most of us want to see I am not so sure the models have a good handle on the current pattern or where it might be going later in the month and as we head into March regardless of their agreement with each other. Time will tell.

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:

I was very worried about a February shutout even during those great gefs weenie runs. Now Id be shocked if we didn't get a shutout. My definition of shutout is 0 to 2 inches

There were never any weenie runs @ H5. Decent looks, but fraught with risk.

You should know better than to take any ens snow mean seriously at range, especially with an advertised pattern that pretty clearly favored tracks to our NW.

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Specifically, the EPS mean snow fall for DC and north of DC at the MD/PA border over the next 5/10/15 days are 0/T/0.5".  Healthy amounts of snow can be seen across the northwestern 2/3 of PA. 

The EPS probability of 1" of snow over the next 5/10/15 days is 0/10/20% at DC and 0/14/28% at the MD/PA border due north of DC.  Odds for at least 6" of snow are 0/0/0 for DC and 0/0/2% for the MD/PA border. 

The CMC, GFS, and Euro operational models also show no snow for DC over the next 10 days.

The CPC 8 to 14 day outlook calls for above normal temperatures and precipitation.  On the positive side, they list their confidence as below normal. 

 

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There were never any weenie runs @ H5. Decent looks, but fraught with risk.
You should know better than to take any ens snow mean seriously at range, especially with an advertised pattern that pretty clearly favored tracks to our NW.
That's what I'm saying. I never bought into the weenie runs
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24 minutes ago, Ji said:
39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
There were never any weenie runs @ H5. Decent looks, but fraught with risk.
You should know better than to take any ens snow mean seriously at range, especially with an advertised pattern that pretty clearly favored tracks to our NW.

That's what I'm saying. I never bought into the weenie runs

The best way to handle the next couple weeks is to donate your keyboard  and monitor to goodwill and shut off data on your phone. 

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If winter is over this will be the worst 2 year stretch at KOKV in it's history. So that gives you an idea of how bad the past 2 years have been as far as snowfall goes. I went and looked at the data and I couldnt find back to back years with under 10 inches. Wea re on pace to have back to back years with under 5 inches. KOKV has had bad years before. But never a 2 year stretch like this.

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18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Next week is lost and likely the week after that.

i dont think even a good March sloppy wet snow is going to save this winter. I am going to have to look for places to drive around Presidents day weekend. Its been a long time since i drove for snow but I already have the green light from the wife. She knows how bad its been

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i dont think even a good March sloppy wet snow is going to save this winter. I am going to have to look for places to drive around Presidents day weekend. Its been a long time since i drove for snow but I already have the green light from the wife. She knows how bad its been

I think it's probably more likely that your wife knows how bad you've been.

Bad winters don't get me too worked up anymore. Being a kid in the 70's really stunk for snow until the 79 Blizzard. And that was touted as a once in a lifetime snow for the area which was exciting and disappointing at the same time. I was honestly worried that I'd never see another big snow like that again in my life.

Bad winters are par for the course.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think even a good March sloppy wet snow is going to save this winter. I am going to have to look for places to drive around Presidents day weekend. Its been a long time since i drove for snow but I already have the green light from the wife. She knows how bad its been

Just go jump on rt15 and head north for 90 minutes. Nice event up that way. 

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52 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:
There were never any weenie runs @ H5. Decent looks, but fraught with risk.
You should know better than to take any ens snow mean seriously at range, especially with an advertised pattern that pretty clearly favored tracks to our NW.

That's what I'm saying. I never bought into the weenie runs

What I am saying is there were never any weenie runs on the GEFS to buy into. The big snow means that showed up were not supported by the general 500 mb pattern. Don't look at snow maps. You will be happier.

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

What I am saying is there were never any weenie runs on the GEFS to buy into. The big snow means that showed up were not supported by the general 500 mb pattern. Don't look at snow maps. You will be happier.

lol i didnt look at the snow maps. they were displayed here by others. My biggest question i had when i saw them was how was this suppose to happen. Everything I saw was going N and W. Anyway..it dosent matter...winter is over

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea..Harrisburg was getting crushed earlier and only 50 miles north or so.

Joe Bastardi just tweeted how pissed he is that State college just turned to sleet. Said he cant win this winter. sounds like snow is not lasting long

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24 minutes ago, Ji said:

Joe Bastardi just tweeted how pissed he is that State college just turned to sleet. Said he cant win this winter. sounds like snow is not lasting long

life would be so much easier if we were like most people who hate snow/ice/sleet...then every fail would be a win.  the only upside is I went quite low in the snowfall contest so I could be a contender to win something I really wanted to lose.

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this is turning into a colder version of last winter, but similar anemic snow totals.  bad winters happen here, but it's a little concerning to get them back to back twice in a decade.  you can view this link and see that winters are generally worse now minus the biggies:

http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf

that is until we get a snowstorm later this month and then i might delete this post.

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