CAPE Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 3 hours ago, Ji said: GGEM Showed similar last night. I thought we were suppose to be starting into the heart of the cold by Feb 8 Until things started looking somewhat better much sooner than expected on the guidance, the general expectation was the pattern would start to get favorable towards and especially beyond the 10th. That really has not changed at all. The mean longwave pattern- specifically the ridge/trough axis- has and continues to look as though more persistent cold in the east will begin to be realized close to mid month. You really should go back and review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: Differences at h5 for the day 6 / 7 timeframe..specifically out west 18z gfs is doing what the euro almost did. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 no one look at the 18z gfs please. Anyone like how the Low jumps for 150 miles SE of outterbanks to 50 miles SE of long island in 6 hours. That low probably actually wanted to be near the benchmark this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Will Ji be happy with the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Ummmm. What’s wrong this 18z GFS for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ack!!! That's a textbook Mid-Atlantic Niña MO...Man I hate Niña years, lol Very hard to score...Lets hope next month doesn't turn into the "warm/wet" month of the winter...(but again, that wouldn't be far from a typical Niña, would it?) Psu posted great examples of what can work in a nina. The general climo is drier and warmer than normal with a favored storm track to the west. Doesn't mean it can't snow though. Big storms are rare but even they happen sometimes too. Take each event individually on its own merits. Makes it easier. Friday might still work out. It's not a done deal. There is precip with cold nearby. Latest trends are too warm at the start. Still worth watching. Our snow events are rarely figured out until under 3 days and sometimes not even until they're happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Will Ji be happy with the 18z GFS? Nope, he'll complain about it anyway for one reason or another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Who was the genius that said once that the 12v an 18V GFS will never have major differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Scraff said: Ummmm. What’s wrong this 18z GFS for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday? I see no way at the moment anything major comes out of that event. I could see that event being a Deep South or southern MA event possibly but if we get too much interaction in that setup with the northern pieces it’s gojng to be rain with the poor high positioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Ji, the gfs just showed you how some of the ens members come up with pretty purple and pinks. Happy now? Better be because it will be gone in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way at the moment anything major comes out of that event. I could see that event being a Deep South or southern MA event possibly but if we get too much interaction in that setup with the northern pieces it’s gojng to be rain with the poor high positioning Even if you're right, go back where you belong. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way at the moment anything major comes out of that event. I could see that event being a Deep South or southern MA event possibly but if we get too much interaction in that setup with the northern pieces it’s gojng to be rain with the poor high positioning Don’t care. I’m huggin. LOLz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 That's the best GFS snow storm I seen for the operational in about a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way at the moment anything major comes out of that event. I could see that event being a Deep South or southern MA event possibly but if we get too much interaction in that setup with the northern pieces it’s gojng to be rain with the poor high positioning Thanks Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way at the moment anything major comes out of that event. I could see that event being a Deep South or southern MA event possibly but if we get too much interaction in that setup with the northern pieces it’s gojng to be rain with the poor high positioning It's a challenge no doubt and you're probably right but saying no way is a bit strong. A number of gefs and eps memebers have different versions that work out. I wouldn't call the run a fluke or an impossibility. There's some support for an event in general. Eta: I posted a gefs panel with a half dozen similar outcomes earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: That's the best GFS snow storm I seen for the operational in about a month #snowtv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Thanks Ji I’m starting to get pretty negative myself and I’ve had 16 inches this winter but this has been remarkably dry nationwide really. I can’t remenber the last winter where the eastern half of the country was as close to normal or below in this many spots that was this dry. The last 20-25 years most of the dry winters were very mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m starting to get pretty negative myself and I’ve had 16 inches this winter but this has been remarkably dry nationwide really. I can’t remenber the last winter where the eastern half of the country was as close to normal or below in this many spots that was this dry. The last 20-25 years most of the dry winters were very mild Bigger drought down the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m starting to get pretty negative myself and I’ve had 16 inches this winter but this has been remarkably dry nationwide really. I can’t remenber the last winter where the eastern half of the country was as close to normal or below in this many spots that was this dry. The last 20-25 years most of the dry winters were very mild I'm sure folks here feel really bad for you and your burgeoning negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 And there's a potential for a storm near the 9th also so, just unlucky if we get nothing out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 21 minutes ago, Scraff said: Don’t care. I’m huggin. LOLz. Pretty lights... Wait...Dont look...Absolutely not...No, NOOO!!!! Model runs that flutter the heart...probably the most difficult parts of this hobby (except when we get a very rare gift like Jan. 2016, lol). But...is it too early to say that at the very least...a possible coastal setup (be it rain or snow)...Any other dynamics at play here to suggest that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way at the moment anything major comes out of that event. I could see that event being a Deep South or southern MA event possibly but if we get too much interaction in that setup with the northern pieces it’s gojng to be rain with the poor high positioning It's flawed and thread the needle but "no way"? It's really a wave that amps along the front. A piece goes be then another wave rides up. It's the classic way we do snow in a Nina. It's not easy. Totally reliant on timing and how the waves interact and where the front sets up..so no way it gets resolved long range. But no way is strong. We typically eventually luck our way into one of these things. Might not be this one but I'll never say no way with weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're not losing the precip battle on Friday. We're losing the temp battle. GFS is .25-.40 through much of the region. Just 8 degrees too warm at the beginning. lol I'm optimistic long term but I'm down on Friday. I think the problem I see is right now the wave isn't amped enough to really create enough cooling but it's already over us. Typically if it amps more it will also trend north. So I see very very little room to win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 36 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Will Ji be happy with the 18z GFS? It's a trap. I maintain the the GFS is a Trap Queen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Pretty lights... Wait...Dont look...Absolutely not...No, NOOO!!!! Model runs that flutter the heart...probably the most difficult parts of this hobby (except when we get a very rare gift like Jan. 2016, lol). But...is it too early to say that at the very least...a possible coastal setup (be it rain or snow)...Any other dynamics at play here to suggest that? I’ll let my favorite experts here answer on the dynamics. I just get pumped to see a light at the end of the tunnel. I’m sure it will disappear at 0z, but for now I’m shoveling and Jebwalkin in a digital world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 18z gfs was pretty epic through the end. Lol. A lot of ens have 3-4 winter wx events with every type on the table. The 18z gfs is a great example of all the different things that could happen. Small events are by far the favorite but we can't rule anything out. We might get ice/mixed/snow/rain over the next 2 weeks. It might be frustrating but it won't be boring. Fasten seatbelts for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm optimistic long term but I'm down on Friday. I think the problem I see is right now the wave isn't amped enough to really create enough cooling but it's already over us. Typically if it amps more it will also trend north. So I see very very little room to win here. Oh, I'm not optimistic about Friday at all but it's not write off time yet. That's all I was saying. Beyond Friday is too far in the future to track run over run details on anything. We're definitely entering a period of shotgun runs with the ops. Lasers can only be broken out d3-4 so Fri is all we have for specifics. Maybe cold air finds a way to filter in before precip shuts off. Longshot but not crazy talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 This is the 12z eps meteogram for dca. There are only about a half dozen decent events for the sun-tues window but there's a decent splattering of small events so the period has something going for it for now. I scanned the members and it's a huge mixed bag or ways to get winter wx. A consolidated coastal is a big minority but in the range. Most of the events that had snow were frontal/overrunning types of deals. A repeating theme with the ens runs are multiple chances over 12 days starting Friday. We're going to need as many chances as we can get to pull something good off. We have a really good chance at getting at least 1 small event over the next 2 weeks (not including tomorrow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I think the 18z covers all bases with precip type and ways to get snow,ice rain.. lol. If it goes down like that it could be a fun few weeks.At this point I'll take whatever I can get. Mixed events, whatever is fine with me. Like I have a choice in the matter...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 That was a pretty epic run from day 7 onward. I need to see that even if it was only digital snow. Does anyone have the snow map for 384 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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